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8 Players to Buy Low & Sell High (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Jul 6, 2022
Buy Low, Sell High Jeffrey Springs

Winning the trade market is at least as important as nailing the draft. The waiver wire holds significant value throughout the season’s first week or two. But after that, trading is by far the best way to significantly improve your team in an instant. A good buy-low deal will have you reaping the rewards come playoff time. On the flipside, a strong sell-high deal will allow you to capitalize on a player’s peak value before his performance eventually comes back down to earth.

Our featured analysts are back to share their top undervalued and overvalued trade candidates at this point in the season.

Q1. Which one MLB player are you trying to buy low and why? Also, who are you willing to give up for him?

Alex Bregman (3B – HOU)
Alex Bregman had a much better June than the first two months of the season, but his surface stats still say he is underperforming. His underlying stats, however, support what began to happen last month. He has been unlucky in BABIP (.251), his average is .237, and he is only slugging .398 for a career-low .753 OPS. Statcast metrics have him bouncing back to a .267 average and .463 slugging. I’d love to swap Jared Walsh or J.T. Realmuto for him and collect those forthcoming runs/RBI for the rest of the year.”
Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)

Lucas Giolito (SP – CWS)
Lucas Giolito has an ERA a hair under 5.00 for the year and a WHIP of 1.47. However, over his last two starts he’s looked more like the ’21 version of himself, recording 13 Ks with just three walks and three earned runs over 12 IP. He’s the perfect buy low in exchange for any starter whose inning limits may hinder your playoff runs come August/September. Kyle Wright, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert all come to mind as potential redraft swaps.”
Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

J.D. Martinez (OF,DH – BOS)
“Can you buy low on a player hitting .312? You can if they hit .232 in June and have just eight home runs through 70 games. Yes, we’re talking about J.D. Martinez, who looks absolutely lost at the plate right now. He batted .406 in May before his June struggles, which is why his average is still above the .300 mark. His fantasy managers are likely frustrated by the recent slump and the lack of power, so there’s a small window to buy low here. He won’t be cheap, but you can sell high on a pitcher like Tony Gonsolin or Jeffrey Springs (more on him below) to see if you can work out a package that lands you a player who should bat around .300 with double-digit home runs in one of the better lineups in baseball in the second half of the season.”
Mike Maher (FantasyPros)

Alex Kirilloff (1B,OF – MIN)
“Since June 24, Kirilloff has raised his batting average from .189 to .264. Kirilloff has dealt with adjustments to the league since his call-up but has always been a high-contact hitter, as he’s had a batting average over .300 at every minor league stop but one. Kirilloff has stopped pulling the ball as much. In April and May, he posted a 40% and 57% pull rate. In early July, it’s down to 21.4 with a center contact of 42.9. This has led to an OPS of over 1.000 in July. The contact is coming, and with three home runs since June 29, the power is as well.”
– Christopher Welsh (FantasyPros)

Q2. What one MLB player are you trying to sell high right now and why? Also, who would you try to get in return?

Jacob deGrom (SP – NYM)
“My answer is Jacob deGrom, and before you send hate mail, hear me out. There are two primary ways to sell high: (1) Current overperformance and (2) The hopes and dreams of other managers. Does anyone in baseball currently have a higher hopes/dreams quotient than deGrom? He has yet to see the field in 2022 after a truncated 2021, the season is half over, and he’s throwing 100 mph in Single-A rehab games. Could he win you your league? Sure. Could he make two starts and then land back on your IL? Absolutely. I would make a trade if I could get a solid all-around hitter like Starling Marte or Matt Olson. I’d also consider a stable of prospects/draft picks if I’m in rebuilding mode. A healthy deGrom is the most elite pitcher in baseball, but realists can capitalize on this moment if they have a different need.”
Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)

Rhys Hoskins (1B – PHI)
Rhys Hoskins has been on fire for a month now, hitting .337 with a 1.164 OPS over that span. Although the power is legit, history tells us Hoskins is lucky to scratch a .250 BA most seasons. I would flip him for Josh Bell and a depth arm if I could. Bell is having as hot a run as Hoskins and could be dealt to a contender this month, raising his stock further.”
Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Jeffrey Springs (SP,RP – TB)
Jeffrey Springs has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy managers this season. Through 19 games (11 starts) and 64 innings, he’s pitched to a 2.53 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 70 strikeouts. His underlying numbers are fine. Most of his expected ERA numbers are somewhere between 3.19 and 3.66, so the expected regression isn’t extreme. My main concern, however, is the innings. He’s at 64 innings already in 2022 after throwing just 65 innings combined in 2020 and 2021. Since the end of 2017, he has thrown just 195 innings and hasn’t thrown more than 44 2/3 in a single season since 2018. There are workload and health concerns here, and the Rays are going to be careful. This organization is known for getting creative with its pitchers, and I expect Springs to work with an opener, shift back to the bullpen, or spend some time on the injured list in the second half. You’ve enjoyed a strong first half from him, but it’s time to sell before his value begins to drop. I’d try to swap him for a package that includes bats like Seiya Suzuki or Juan Yepez and other pieces.”
Mike Maher (FantasyPros)

Tony Gonsolin (SP – LAD)
“His run has been amazing, but maintaining it will be difficult. Gonsolin has a differential of more than two between his ERA at 1.54 and his xFIP at 3.77. He also has a 3.66 SEIRA. It’s not all luck, but he is pitching to the lowest BABIP of all qualified starters at .186. He can still be good, but it’s time to cash in.”
– Christopher Welsh (FantasyPros)

Thank you to the experts for naming their trade candidates. Make sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice all season and check out our Leading Off Podcast every single day for quick-hitting takeaways and advice.


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