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Do Not Draft List: Quarterbacks (2022 Fantasy Football)

by Tom Strachan | @NFL_Tstrack | Featured Writer
Jul 4, 2022
Ryan Tannehill

In redraft leagues, there is always a high level of interest regarding when the first player of each position is taken. Drafters can remember the dominance of previous seasons and feel the urge to grab that difference-making player early and ahead of their average draft position (ADP). Still, it’s not always a good strategy. Further down the drafts, it can feel easy to land on certain players when they slip past their ADP, but often these quarterbacks are sliding for a reason. In single quarterback leagues, these are players to avoid. In Superflex, they’re best approached with caution.

Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

Josh Allen (QB – BUF)

Allow me to make the case before the pitchforks start being wielded. Almost every year, we see the first quarterback off the board disappoint. Over the last five years, the consensus QB1 has taken a backward step in points per game every time, apart from in 2018, which followed an injury-interrupted season for Aaron Rodgers. At the cost of drafting the QB1, you’re often passing up other elite wide receivers or running backs to do so, and this can also prove costly. FantasyPros consensus ADP tracker currently has Josh Allen selected as the 23rd player in single QB leagues.

If you’re drafting Allen in this range and pairing him with first-round studs such as Jonathan Taylor or Cooper Kupp, you’re relying heavily on the idea that your players don’t regress below their 2021 standards. Unfortunately, at this position on the turn, you’re also going to be left waiting a long time for your next selections, and by the time the draft comes back around, other positions might have dried up very quickly. On the other hand, waiting slightly longer to take a quarterback such as Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts allows you to have a high ceiling but also fill out more of your skill positions first. Then, after that, you can grab a quarterback in the draft areas where running backs become more dangerous.

Fantasy finish PPG (Point Per Game) finish PPG Previous years PPG
2021 Patrick Mahomes 4 6 21 25
2020 Lamar Jackson 8 9 22 27.7
2019 Patrick Mahomes 7 3 21.2 26.6
2018 Aaron Rodgers 4 7 20.8 18.5
2017 Aaron Rodgers* 28 5 18.5 23.1

 

Zach Wilson (QB – NYJ)

Slightly less controversial than Josh Allen is his AFC East neighbor, Zach Wilson. With the additions of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall in the draft, joining the likes of Elijah Moore, Michael Carter and C.J. Uzomah, one could be forgiven for feeling slightly bullish on the New York Jets this year. However, there are still questions about the quarterback. In 2021 Wilson posted the fifth-worst passing expected points added (EPA) of any quarterback to play a minimum of eight games since the turn of the century. The only quarterbacks to score less than his -99.8 were Andrew Walter (-102.1), JaMarcus Russel (-115.5), DeShone Kizer (-120.6) and Josh Rosen (-130.5), hardly a list anyone wants to be included in.

Rarely do quarterbacks who post such poor numbers go on to improve dramatically, and Jets fans have been waiting too long for the answer at the position. If things start poorly, Wilson will be under tremendous pressure. Unfortunately for Wilson, he faces the toughest strength of schedule amongst quarterbacks according to FantasyPros strength of schedule. So don’t get suckered into the good vibes. Wilson deserves to be on Waivers in most single QB leagues until we see otherwise.

Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN)

Things change fast in the NFL, and you could forgive Ryan Tannehill for feeling slightly grumpy about how things have changed in Tennessee. Two years ago, Tannehill was throwing to A.J. Brown and Corey Davis while handing the ball off to an eternally healthy Derrick Henry to the playoffs. Now, A.J. Brown is an Eagle, Corey Davis a Jet, Derrick Henry is returning from a broken bone in his foot and Brown’s draft night replacement, Treylon Burks, is struggling to get onto the practice field because of asthma.

In 2021 the Titans ranked 30th in pass blocking according to PFF and since then have lost Rodger Saffold and David Quessenberry in free agency and didn’t replace them with any headline names. Even in clean pockets last year, Tannehill posted his worst completion percentage since he left Miami (72.3%). With no upgrades in the passing game, question marks at the offensive line, an exciting rookie on the bench and Derrick Henry 28 years old, it’s an easy year to pass on Ryan Tannehill.

Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)

We’ll finish how we started, with a bit of spice in the sauce. Kyler Murray is a good quarterback and has the potential to be an MVP and fantasy league winner. Unfortunately, several factors historically have worked against him. Firstly, injuries. Since Murray entered the league, he has averaged 14.3 games played per season. While it’s possible to cope with games missed by a quarterback, Murray’s play has dropped significantly as injuries catch up with him during the season. Admittedly, in 2021 it was less of a drop-off than in 2020, but it becomes fair to ask questions about Murray’s ability to consistently score highly throughout the season.

 

Kyler Murray PPG pre-injury PPG post-injury
2021 23.1 21
2022 29.2 16.5

 

Another factor working against Kyler Murray is the coaching ability of Kliff Kingsbury. Over three seasons in the NFL, Kingsbury’s Cardinals have looked poor in the second half of the season, and Kingsbury has been unable to find answers to help his young quarterback.

 

Year Start Finish Result
2019 3-3 2-7 Missed playoffs
2020 6-3 2-5 Missed playoffs
2021 10-2 1-5 Lost 34-11 in the wild-card round

 

While the addition of Marquise Brown reunites the receiver with his college quarterback, it’s fair to question how Brown may survive as a team’s WR1 while DeAndre Hopkins undergoes a six-game suspension. In college, Brown was able to outplay opponents by being a superior athlete often, but in the NFL, he struggles in contested catch situations and, as the focal point in an offense, may struggle with the attention it brings. The schedule does the Cardinals no favors in 2022, with early games against the Chiefs, Raiders, Rams, Panthers and Eagles to open the season and a quarterback schedule rated second-worst by FantasyPros ratings.

CTAs


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Who are you avoiding in 2022 at quarterback? Let me know on Twitter @NFL_TStrack

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