MLB Trade Value Risers & Fallers: Adolis Garcia, Sean Manaea, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2022)

Each week, FantasyPros publishes a fantasy baseball trade chart. The chart contains player values designed to help you assess the overall weight of both sides of a trade.

The weekly trade charts also keep track of the changes in a player’s value from the previous week. But sometimes, the reasons for a change aren’t obvious. “Why is player X gaining three points in value this week when player Y, who had an even better week, remained the same?”

Good question, reader. There are many answers as to why any given player moves in value from one week to the next. And in this article, we’ll examine some of the biggest risers and fallers each week, and explain the movement.

Here are some of the most notable risers and fallers in the FantasyPros Week 16 Trade Value Chart:

Risers

Adolis Garcia (OF) – TEX). Week 16 Value: 18. Previous Value: 14. Change: +4

I have mentioned blind spots before in fantasy baseball, and Garcia has been one for me. An incredibly high strikeout rate is something that I have difficulty getting past, and when it comes from a hitter who had success despite that rate in his rookie season, I’m almost certainly going to be out the following year.

And that’s how it was for me and Garcia. I’m not touching someone who went 31-16 when it came with a 31.2% strikeout rate. And I felt pretty vindicated when he slashed .195/.273/.403 in April.

But he turned it around pretty quickly, particularly in June, and he’s pretty much pacing a 30-25 season with a batting average that won’t kill you. Garcia has lowered his strikeout rate to 27.9%, largely because he has increased his O-Contact% (contact percentage on swings on pitches outside the strike zone) by four percent.

More importantly, unlike last year when he had a .220 xBA (bottom eight percent of MLB), that number is now up to .252, buoyed by both his decrease in strikeout rate and his 7.2% increase in his line drive rate.

So now Garcia isn’t this strikeout-heavy, due-for-regression hitter. This is just kind of what he is. And what he is is a pretty impressive player.

Nestor Cortes (SP – NYY). Week 16 Value: 18. Previous Value: 14. Change: +4

I’ve kept Cortes’s value in check because it’s really hard to buy into him. His fastball sits at 91 MPH, he has a career 3.85 ERA, and he looks like a guy who should be playing in your home softball league.

But the other day I was watching Moneyball and I was reminded of the baseball dinosaurs who would find all sorts of reasons to disregard plain numbers that showed that a player was actually good. And I realized I was doing that with Cortes.

First, his xERA is 2.76, his FIP is 3.41, his SIERA is 3.46, and his xFIP is 3.68. Although all of those are obviously higher than his 2.48 ERA, they suggest that Cortes isn’t exactly doing it with smoke and mirrors. Second, the man had a 2.90 ERA last season, which included 14 starts! Third, his strikeout rate has been at least 26% in each of the last two seasons.

In other words, who cares about his velocity? Or his dad bod? Or his mustache? What he is doing right now is legitimate and backed up by the metrics. And although the Yankees may back him off a bit down the stretch, he still has plenty of starts left in his arm.

Fallers

Sean Manaea (SP – SD). Week 16 Value: 9. Previous Value: 15. Change: -6

Manaea has been overvalued in the trade chart for weeks. It’s really as simple as that. He had an excellent first few starts and since then has been entirely mediocre.

A 4.33 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 23.7% strikeout rate. Oh, and he has just five wins. Oh, and his walk rate is a career worst 8.9%.

His value was an oversight. It might still be. Target him in a trade if you need a fairly reliable but unspectacular arm in your rotation. But not if you need more.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR). Week 16 Value: 40. Previous Value: 44. Change: -4

This is nothing against Guerrero, who hit his 21st home run on Tuesday. He’s fantastic, one of the best all-around hitters in the game. But should he really be valued that much higher than Kyle Tucker or Aaron Judge or Freddie Freeman?

Guerrero is going to likely fall pretty significantly short of every one of his numbers from last year. There’s no shame in that – almost every hitter in baseball would, too. But now that we can acknowledge that fact, it’s time to move him down just a peg.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.

Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.