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Stop Drafting Joe Burrow at His Ceiling (2022 Fantasy Football)

Jul 2, 2022
Joe Burrow

Whether you are playing best ball or preparing for your redraft fantasy football draft, it’s important to keep an eye on fantasy football rankings and average draft position (ADP) throughout the summer. Gaining early insights helps you prepare and take advantage of those managers that start their prep the day before your draft. Andrew Erickson is here to help. He’s here to stop you from drafting Joe Burrow at his ceiling.

Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

  • Joe Burrow was a top-12 QB in just 50% of his games last season. Same as Lamar Jackson.
  • The Bengals quarterback also finished as a top-6 quarterback in just 19% of his games, the second-lowest rate of QBs in the top-12 ADP.
  • Case in point Burrow (traditional pocket passer) had fewer “boom” games (2) than Lamar Jackson (Konami code quarterback) despite the latter playing four fewer games.
  • Burrow’s current ADP at several sites is QB5, and it seems like he is being priced exactly as his ceiling.

Joe Burrow 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook

Joe Burrow finished the regular season as PFF’s highest-graded passer (91.2) while also ranking first in super sticky stats like passing grade from a clean pocket (94.6) and passing grade throwing at the intermediate level (95.6). He finished the season as the QB8 averaging just north of 20.5 fantasy points per game.

The Bengals quarterback has undoubtedly entered the conversation as one of the league’s best real-life NFL passers, but might be slightly overvalued based on early best ball ADP with impending regression. He’s the QB6 in our ADP consensus despite finishing as a top-6 fantasy quarterback just thrice in 2021.

No quarterback scored more fantasy points over expectation, which hints that regression will hit Burrow in 2022. The LSU product also rushed for just 118 yards and two TDs. He rushed for fewer yards than Mac Jones, who is notorious for being ranked low across consensus due to his lack of upside as a rusher.

However, there is a legitimate path for Burrow’s upside to be further unlocked if the Bengals increase their pass rate as they did during his rookie season and down the playoff stretch. Burrow led the NFL in passing attempts per game (40.4) during his rookie season and averaged 38 passing attempts/23.0 fantasy points per game in his final six weeks

An uptick in passing volume won’t help Burrow’s efficiency per se, but his fantasy numbers will be much more stable from week to week.

Also can’t forget to mention the Bengals revamped their offensive line as they look to not let their franchise quarterback get sacked 70 times – 22 more than the next closest quarterback.

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