Andrew Erickson has dug into why you should seriously consider buying into players on good offenses, even if they are going later in fantasy football drafts than more well-known targets in poorer environments. He’s also examined ‘bad’ offenses and what you need to know as you prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Here’s a look at players to target on ‘bad’ offenses that could be going undervalued in drafts.
33 Players to Target on Bad Offenses
- RB Jonathan Taylor
- RB Saquon Barkley, RB D’Andre Swift
- RB Alvin Kamara, TE Kyle Pitts, RB Travis Etienne, WR Michael Pittman
- RB Breece Hall, WR Terry McLaurin
- WR Darnell Mooney, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
- WR Elijah Moore, WR Michael Thomas
- WR Drake London
- WR Kadarius Toney, WR Christian Kirk
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson, RB Chase Edmonds, WR Treylon Burks, RB Kareem Hunt
- WR Chase Claypool
- WR Garrett Wilson
- QB Justin Fields, TE Cole Kmet
- WR DeVante Parker, QB Trevor Lawrence
- WR Jahan Dotson, QB Jameis Winston, TE David Njoku
- WR Parris Campbell, WR George Pickens, RB Khalil Herbert, RB Sony Michel
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Fantasy Football Player Notes
Once a locked-and-loaded top-five fantasy football selection, Barkley is now routinely selected in the third round. His inability to stay healthy has hindered him from being able to recapture his rookie form in addition to the Giants’ horrible situation on offense. But under a new coaching staff and vastly improved offensive line, there’s reason to buy back in on Barkley at a massive discount. In 5 games last season when Barkley played a full snap share with Daniel Jones under center, the Giants RB averaged 16.2 PPR points per game (RB10). Backup Devontae Booker out-scored Barkley on a per-game basis in all other games played (10.0 vs 9.1).
My highest-ranked rookie running back is Breece Hall. The Jets selected the Iowa State product at the top of Round 2, signifying his status as the team’s locked-in RB1 for the foreseeable future. Hall’s three-down skill set suggests he never has to come off the field, and the sheer volume he garners will vault him into redraft top-20 running back territory.
The Iowa State product totaled over 4,500 yards from scrimmage, 50 touchdowns and 80 catches over three seasons in the college ranks.
A workload of approximately 240 touches – based on ESPN fantasy analyst Mike Clay’s projections and how many touches the cumulative Jets RB1 earned last season – would place Hall inside the top-15 considering every running back last season that hit that threshold finished inside that ranking.
2021 fourth-rounder Michael Carter had his moments as a rookie, but the Jets know he’s just a No. 2 running back. Anticipate Hall to shoulder 15-20 touches per game based on the workload that Carter received last season when Tevin Coleman missed time.
From Weeks 7-9 with Coleman sidelined, Carter averaged 19 touches per game and a 66% snap share. Upon Coleman’s return from injury in Week 10, Carter averaged 14 touches per game and a 55% snap share in the games they played together.
Drake London boasts all the skills to be an alpha possession receiver for the Atlanta Falcons. The 6-foot-4 and 219-pound towering USC wide receiver only played in eight games due to an ankle injury but made every game count. He commanded a 38% target share, led all WRs in contested catches (19) and in receptions per game (11.0).
London concluded the year third in yards per route run (3.52) in his draft class.
Even if London’s final 2022 stat line doesn’t turn heads based on potential shoddy quarterback play from Marcus Mariota /Desmond Ridder, a high target share will provide London a solid weekly floor.
Chase Claypool‘s second-year breakout was inevitably halted by Ben Roethlisberger’s lack of downfield throwing ability: On throws with 20-plus air yards, Big Ben graded 31st out of 38 qualifying QBs.
Claypool commanded a 27% air yards share on the season and led the team in the metric over the final four weeks. Better days should be ahead of the Notre Dame product if Pittsburgh can get better downfield quarterback play from Kenny Pickett/Mitchell Trubisky.
Claypool is also due for positive touchdown regression after catching just one of his 12 end-zone targets last season. The 6-foot-5 monster is no stranger to hitting paydirt, after being one of eight wide receivers to score double-digit touchdowns as rookies since 1998.
However, Claypool’s range of outcomes is quite wide heading into his third season with 2022 second-round pick George Pickens, chomping at the bit to be the No. 2 on the offense behind Diontae Johnson.
Curtis Samuel has struggled to stay healthy and 2021 third-rounder Dyami Brown failed to fire as a rookie creating an opportunity in the Washington new-look offense alongside No. 1 WR Terry McLaurin.
Jahan Dotson‘s biggest strengths to me are his reliability and the floor that he can offer the Commanders, and that is going to translate into target volume.
That’s what he did during his final season at Penn State, posting an absurd 43% dominator rating while racking up the 8th-most receptions in his draft class.
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