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4 Quarterbacks Experts Like Less Than ADP (2022 Fantasy Football)

Aug 11, 2022

A great way to get a sense of players to target and a void is to see how our expert rankings compare to average draft position (ADP). If the ADP is higher than the expert rankings, you may want to consider these players at their current draft-day cost. Let’s take a look at players our expert consensus likes less than ADP.

Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.

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4 Quarterbacks Experts Like Less Than ADP

Patrick Mahomes (KC)
ECR QB3| ADP QB2

Despite the ups-and-downs of the KC Chiefs offense as a response to the Cover 2 defense, Patrick Mahomes was as stellar as ever from a fantasy perspective. The former MVP ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0) tying Justin Herbert with 12 weekly top-12 QB finishes. Still, Mahomes averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (25.2).

Additionally, the loss of Tyreek Hill cannot be ignored heading into 2022. The duo ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 – despite Mahomes not becoming the starter until 2018. Mahomes can’t totally be written off as a top-five fantasy option – QB4 without Hill through the first five weeks of 2019 averaging 25 fantasy points per game – but there’s real concern about his top-tier weekly ceiling without Hill.

Especially coming off a season where he posted a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and career high in interceptions (16). He’s likely being overvalued as the QB2 in early best ball drafts on name recognition alone.

Joe Burrow (CIN)
ECR QB7 | ADP QB6

Joe Burrow finished the regular season as PFF’s highest-graded passer (91.2) while also ranking first in super sticky stats like passing grade from a clean pocket (94.6) and passing grade throwing at the intermediate level (95.6). He finished the season as the QB8 averaging just north of 20.5 fantasy points per game.

The Bengals quarterback has undoubtedly entered the conversation as one of the league’s best real-life NFL passers, but might be slightly overvalued based on early best ball ADP with impending regression. He’s the QB6 despite finishing as a top-6 fantasy quarterback just thrice in 2021.

No quarterback scored more fantasy points over expectation, which hints that regression will hit Burrow in 2022. The LSU product also rushed for just 118 yards and two TDs. He rushed for fewer yards than Mac Jones, who is notorious for being ranked low across consensus due to his lack of upside as a rusher.

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Dak Prescott (DAL)
ECR QB10 | ADP QB8

With their backs up against the salary cap, the Dallas Cowboys didn’t have an offseason to remember for anybody heavily invested in Dak Prescott‘s 2022 fantasy prospects. They gave up Amari Cooper and lost two key starting offensive pieces on the offensive line with La’el Collins and Connor Williams for little return.

They did re-sign Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup, but early reports on Gallup indicate it will be close whether he’s ready for Week 1 coming off the torn ACL. Dallas’ biggest move in free agency and the NFL Draft to combat their losses was signing former Steelers wide receiver James Washington, drafting Jalen Tolbert in Round 3 and selecting offensive tackle project Tyler Smith in Round 1.

With many other quarterbacks benefitting from better team off seasons, Prescott has fallen in my rankings well past his QB9 ADP making it less likely I draft him. He finished as the QB9 last year in points per game, and I’d argue his situation – aside from health – isn’t as ideal as it was a season ago. His rushing also hit career-low numbers in 2021.

Aaron Rodgers (GB)
ECR QB13 | ADP QB11

Placing Aaron Rodgers in the “players to avoid” category feels like grabbing at low-hanging fruit, but it’s just so obvious his fantasy ceiling is going to be hindered this year without his No. 1 wide receiver, Davante Adams.

The one game the Packers signal-caller played without his No. 1 receiver in 2021 was his third-worst fantasy finish of the season. And Rodgers’ only healthy season-long fantasy finish outside the top-8 came in a season where Adams missed four games.

The dynamic duo’s chemistry was never more apparent in or near the red zone, with Rodgers-Adams combining for 64 touchdowns – double-digits on average – since 2016, 23 more than the next closest duo (Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill). Thirty-three percent of Rodgers touchdowns have gone to Adams over that period.

Green Bay has bolstered their wide receiver room through free agency and the draft, but it’s still improbable that they can make up for Adams’ production – especially in the red zone. Without Adams, it’s hard to buy Rodgers as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 2022.

FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings

2022 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

 

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

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