Here are five overvalued wide receivers to think twice about during your fantasy football drafts.
5 Overvalued Wide Receivers
Jaylen Waddle (MIA): Consensus ADP – WR14 | 39th Overall
“Jaylen Waddle set an NFL record last year for a rookie with 104 receptions — but it wasn’t a great season if we’re being honest. Waddle’s bottom-line production (1,015 yards receiving) pales in comparison to what we’ve seen out of other rookies recently on far less volume (140 targets): Ja’Marr Chase (1,455, 128 targets), Justin Jefferson (1,400, 125), Michael Thomas (1,137, 121), Odell Beckham (1,305, 130). Last year, Waddle was basically Amon-Ra St. Brown (912 yards, 90 receptions) but with 21 more targets — and this year he could earn fewer opportunities, given that the team acquired No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill and the new coaching staff is likely to rely on the running game (based on HC Mike McDaniel’s history with Kyle Shanahan). I don’t see a strong reason to invest in the No. 2 receiver in an offense that might want to limit the number of times QB Tua Tagovailoa throws the ball.”
– Matthew Freedman
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI): Consensus ADP – WR35 | 86th Overall
“Ranking DeAndre Hopkins as a top 40 wide receiver in fantasy football is borderline lunacy. Even if you can somehow look past this type of draft equity tied into a player that we all know will miss nearly half of the fantasy regular season, there’s still the elephant in the room of his meh 2021 production. Hopkins dipped in nearly every efficiency metric I care about last season. He finished 48th in target per route run rate, 29th in yards per route run, and outside the top 24 in route win rate (per Playerproifiler.com). I’ll happily avoid Hopkins in my drafts. ”
– Derek Brown
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DK Metcalf (SEA): Consensus ADP – WR17 | 47th Overall
“Nobody is making you draft parts of the Seattle Seahawks offense. Especially someone like DK Metcalf, who has bust written all over him as a Round 4 pick. Metcalf thrives off touchdown production — 32 touchdowns over his first three seasons — but I anticipate scoring to be in short supply for this 2022 Seahawks offense. News flash people…if you want to draft part of Seattle’s passing attack, just take Tyler Lockett outside the top-30 WR picks. He and Lockett have posted nearly identical target shares and points per game over the last two seasons. Metcalf’s ADP is WR17. Lockett’s is WR38. Easy game”
– Andrew Erickson
Marquise Brown (ARI): Consensus ADP – WR20 | 58th Overall
“Marquise Brown is the WR20 currently and after outperforming expectations in Baltimore last year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him underperform in 2022. Brown’s depth of targets might increase with Kyler Murray as his quarterback, but it’s unlikely he’ll see 146 targets again and for the first six games whilst Deandre Hopkins is suspended Brown will garner an awful lot of defensive attention. It’s possible Brown’s ADP is an over correction. ”
– Tom Strachan
Tyler Lockett (SEA): Consensus ADP – WR38 | 95th Overall
“Tyler Lockett: The quarterback situation might be the worst in the NFL with either Geno Smith or Drew Lock running the offense, and D.K Metcalf is still the top receiving option on the roster. Sure, Lockett had five games in which he scored 20-plus fantasy points, but also had six games with single-digit scoring, including a five-week stretch in which he averaged 4.9 half-PPR points. I want nothing to do with that inconsistency. ”
– Joe Serpico
Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.
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