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6 ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: NFC North (2022 Fantasy Football)

Aug 21, 2022
Romeo Doubs

The 2022 fantasy football season is just around the corner. The FantasyPros mock draft simulator is the best to prepare for your fantasy drafts. Each year you want to construct your team with a proper mix of good value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.

In the sixth part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely to bust candidates, and two potential sleepers in the NFC North.

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ADP Values

Dalvin Cook (MIN): ADP 7.7 | RB6

While Cook had a disappointing 2021 season, finishing as the RB16, you should feel confident using a top-five pick on him this year. Despite unusual touchdown regression, Cook still had nine top-24 weekly finishes in 12 fantasy season games last season (75%). He was also the RB9 on a points-per-game basis among running backs with at least nine games played.

More importantly, his yards per rushing attempt from last year (4.7) matched his career average. After scoring 30 touchdowns the previous two years, Cook scored only six last season. With the switch at head coach from defensive-minded Mike Zimmer to offensive-minded Kevin O’Connell, the Minnesota offense should be more explosive and dangerous this year. Expect massive positive touchdown regression and another high-end RB1 season from Cook in 2022.

Darnell Mooney (CHI): ADP 70.3 | WR29

After the Bears let Allen Robinson leave in free agency, Mooney is the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver in Chicago. Last year he had 140 targets, the 11th most in the NFL. More importantly, his 8.2 targets per game were a 25.6% increase from his rookie season average. Mooney remained productive with his targets despite a merry-go-round at quarterback. After averaging 1.55 fantasy points per target as a rookie, Mooney averaged 1.57 fantasy points per target last season. Furthermore, his production jumped in the games without Robinson.

While he scored only one touchdown in the five games without Robinson last season, Mooney still averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game. On a 17-game pace, he would have been the WR17 last season with that average. Furthermore, he had at least seven targets in every game without Robinson, including nine or more targets twice. More importantly, Justin Fields reportedly has made massive strides this offseason throwing the ball. Mooney could lead the league in targets this season, thanks to limited competition at wide receiver. As the 29th wide receiver off the board, Mooney is criminally underrated at his current ADP.

Bust Candidates

T.J. Hockenson (DET): ADP 66.8 | TE7

Last year Hockenson was a popular breakout candidate given a lack of proven weapons in Detroit. Unfortunately, he ended the year as the TE15 after he played only 12 games because of injuries. However, Hockenson was the TE6 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 12.1 fantasy points per contest. Furthermore, he had a 21% target share and a 23.7% red zone target share, thanks to the lack of playmakers around him. Unfortunately for Hockenson, much has changed in Detroit.

The Lions re-signed Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond. They also added DJ Chark in free agency and traded up during the NFL Draft to secure Jameson Williams. While these new additions won’t crush Hockenson’s target share, they will limit it. More importantly, Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift are coming off productive years last season and expect to have even larger roles this year. Hockenson isn’t a bad low-end TE1 option. However, his sixth-round ADP is way too high. He also shouldn’t get drafted ahead of Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz.

Aaron Rodgers (GB): ADP 81.8 | QB11

Rodgers has been arguably the best quarterback in the NFL the past few years, winning back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021. He has been a top-nine quarterback in four straight years, including three top-six finishes. Furthermore, Rodgers has averaged 19.5 or more fantasy points per game in three of the past four years. However, things have drastically changed for Rodgers this offseason. The Packers traded away Davante Adams and lost Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency. They didn’t sign a top-tier free agent like Allen Robinson or trade for Amari Cooper as a replacement. Instead, the Packers signed Sammy Watkins and used three draft picks on wide receivers.

Last year Rodgers was the QB5, averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game. He ranked 12th in the NFL with 531 pass attempts and fourth in passing touchdowns with 37. That means a massive part of Rodgers’ fantasy production came from his passing touchdowns. Rodgers had a 7% touchdown rate last year, tossing a touchdown once every 14.4 pass attempts. However, 11 of his touchdown passes from last season went to Adams, accounting for 29.7% of his total. Removing Adam’s 11 touchdowns from Rodgers’ total, he would have slipped from the QB5 to the QB13 last season. Without Adams, Rodgers lacks the upside to warrant a seventh-round pick.

Sleepers to Target

Cole Kmet (CHI): ADP 139.1 | TE13

Many expected Kmet to have a breakout sophomore season after a quiet rookie year. Unfortunately, he ended the year as the TE20, averaging only 7.1 fantasy points per game. While that is disheartening, Kmet was second on the team with 93 targets last season. Furthermore, his play improved when Robinson missed time. In the five games without Robinson, Kmet averaged 6.8 targets and 9.2 fantasy points per game. He scored over 13 fantasy points twice during that span and had seven or more targets in three contests. More importantly, Kmet was very productive in Fields’ final four starts last season.

While Fields left the Week 11 matchup early with an injury, Kmet averaged 7.3 targets and 10.8 fantasy points per game in the other three games. His targets per game were up 25.4% from his season average, while his fantasy points per game were up 34.3% from his season average. More importantly, his 10.8 fantasy points per game average would have made him the TE5 over a 17-game pace despite not scoring a touchdown. As a result, Kmet is a prime breakout candidate this year and my favorite tight end to draft in the double-digit rounds.

Romeo Doubs (GB): ADP 192.5 | WR67

I have led the Doubs hype train since early May. After trading away Adams and losing Valdes-Scantling in free agency, the Packers have arguably the worst wide receiver core in the NFL. The duo had a combined 224 targets and 37.8% target share last year. Instead of using either of their two first-round draft picks on a wide receiver, the Packers used a pair of mid-round draft selections on Christian Watson and Doubs. Unfortunately, Watson’s first NFL offseason hasn’t gone as planned. He struggled with drops earlier in the offseason and started training camp on PUP. With Watson sidelined, Doubs took advantage of the situation.

In his final year at Nevada, Doubs was very productive. He had 80 receptions for 1,109 receiving yards and 11 receiving touchdowns in 11 games. Furthermore, he had the fourth most receptions and the second-most receiving touchdowns in the Mountain West Conference. More importantly, Doubs has repeatedly received praise from Rodgers. He has made several impressive plays in training camp, repeatedly beating starting cornerbacks in one-on-one situations. Allen Lazard projects as the No. 1 wide receiver for the Packers, but his career-high in targets is 60 (from last season). Doubs has a chance to become Rodgers’ top pass catcher as a rookie and massively outperform his late-round ADP.

 

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

Busts, Featured, Featured Link, NFL, Sleepers