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Andrew Erickson’s 2022 All-Bust Team (Fantasy Football)

Aug 11, 2022
DK Metcalf

There is always a price where a player can provide value. However, based on average draft position, it is unlikely certain players are going to provide the value warranted to draft them where they are currently being selected. Here are players that our analysts are far lower on compared to their ADP. Check out Andrew Erickson’s All-Bust Team for 2022.

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Andrew Erickson’s All-Bust Team

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes (KC)

Despite the ups-and-downs of the KC Chiefs offense as a response to the Cover 2 defense, Patrick Mahomes was as a stellar as ever from a fantasy perspective. The former MVP ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0) tying Justin Herbert with 12 weekly top-12 QB finishes. Still, Mahomes averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (25.2).

Additionally, the loss of Tyreek Hill cannot be ignored heading into 2022. The duo ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 – despite Mahomes not becoming the starter until the 2018. Mahomes can’t totally be written off as a top-five fantasy option – .QB4 without Hill through the first five weeks of 2019 averaging 25 fantasy points per game – but there’s real concern about his top-tier weekly ceiling without Hill.

Especially coming off a season where he posted a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and career-high in interceptions (16). He’s likely being overvalued as the QB2 in early best ball drafts on name recognition alone.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)

Antonio Gibson (WAS)

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf (SEA)

The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. It’s a horrible situation to be in and puts D.K. Metcalf in a tough spot.

Although the alpha wideout did rise to the occasion under a small sample size last season, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game (15th – same as his final season-long standing) without Wilson at quarterback for three games.

But I am suspect that removing their quarterback that led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before his finger injury is going to create a much larger impact over a 17-game sample size.

Diontae Johnson (PIT)

The ADP market believes that Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett can take the Steelers to the fantasy promised land. I am not as optimistic.

The best-case scenario for the Steelers’ No. 1 wide receiver is seeing a boatload of targets – albeit inefficient like last season when he ranked second in that category – to deliver for fantasy.

Whether it’s Trubisky or the rookie under center, that is the reality with DJ. Let’s not forget that last year’s heavily-coveted rookie quarterback class produced almost zero reliable options outside of Brandin Cooks (WR20), Jakobi Meyers (WR33), and Kendrick Bourne (WR30).

So with a top-15 early best ball ADP in an offense with more competition for targets between Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens and Calvin Austin III, I would need Johnson to fall significantly in drafts before selecting him.

Adam Thielen (MIN)

The 32-year-old wideout has made his hay in fantasy because of his “ability” to find the end zone 24 times since the start of 2020, but it’s something that just isn’t sustainable in the long term. Based on Thielen’s targets and yardage totals, his total TD number should be closer to 16.

Justin Jefferson is an ascending rocketship that will only see his TDs rise entering Year 3, most likely coming at the detriment of Thielen. Not to mention, AT’s age may finally be catching up to him after he posted his lowest PFF receiving grade and yards per route run since he first became a starter back in 2016.

Tight End

Mark Andrews (BAL)

Last year, Mark Andrews was the early-round tight end who drove rosters to fantasy championships. The Baltimore Ravens’ fourth-year TE led the position with a 25% target share, 28% air yards share and 17.5 fantasy points per game. He ran a route on 84% of offensive dropbacks, which also ranked first.

With Marquise Brown traded to the Cardinals, Andrews has solidified himself as clear TE1 with a still unproven second-year wideout as his main competition for targets.

However, be aware that even if Andrews does repeat his efforts as TE1 it may not be to the extent that it was in 2021. His 623 routes run were 209 more than he had in 2020 and fueled the career year. Andrews’ increase in route running was tied to the Ravens’ boosted pass-play rate (56%).

From 2019-2020, Baltimore passed on fewer than 46% of their plays. Because Baltimore’s increase in passing was due out of necessity in 2021, I’d project it to regress closer to the 2019-2020 rate for this upcoming season.

FLEX

Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) & Damien Harris (RB – NE)

2022 Consensus Best Ball Rankings

2022 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR (TM) – Expert Consensus Rankings

 

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