For those not paying close attention to the data from 2021, Brandon Drury seemingly came out of nowhere. Yet there were signs that a breakout was on the horizon for the Padres’ slugger.
Drury set career highs in hard-hit% and batting average last year and posted his second-highest barrel rate in a season where he had 50 or more plate appearances (he had 88 in 2021).
Although his plate discipline numbers took a downturn last season (they have improved across the board this year), the batted ball numbers showed the makings of a significantly improved batter.
Many fantasy baseball managers this year did not trust his early success and dropped him early, thinking regression was soon to come, but with an improved line-drive rate, a career average BABIP, and a HR/FB rate backed up by improvements at the plate, Drury has been able to sustain his success through the season.
That being said… Who is next year’s Brandon Drury? This would be a player showing signs of improved batted ball data, with improvements to batting average in 100 or fewer plate appearances.
The first name that comes to mind as next year’s Brandon Drury is Joey Meneses, who is already having a breakout season of sorts this year.
The 30-year-old rookie is batting .329 with six home runs in 73 plate appearances after languishing in the minors since 2011.
What is most striking about his success this year is his batted ball data, in particular his barrel and hard-hit rates.
| PA | Avg EV | Barrel% | Hard-Hit% | AVG |
| 73 | 91.3 MPH | 13.8% | 44.8% | .329 |
Meneses’ barrel rate matches that of Rowdy Tellez for 12th best in baseball, fifth best among outfielders, and third best among first basemen (vs. qualified hitters). His hard-hit rate is .1% lower than Dansby Swanson‘s and Alejandro Kirk‘s, two players having breakout seasons of their own this year. A 91.3 MPH average Exit Velocity tops that of Manny Machado, Ronald Acuna Jr., Paul Goldschmidt, and Juan Soto.
As long as the Nationals keep Meneses into next season and do not sign any significant free agents that would block him from earning playing time, he could be due for a great season in 2023.
Much like Drury, Jake Lamb is a veteran that has seen sporadic time as a regular but has mostly been a platoon player throughout his career.
Also similarly to Drury, Lamb has improved in important batted ball areas this season, which has resulted in an improved batting average.
The Mariners’ third baseman increased his barrel rate from 7.9% in 2020 to 11.6% in 2021. He has maintained the improved barrel rate this year (11.15) and has matched his 2021 hard-hit rate of 44.2% with a 44.4% mark this year.
| Year | PA | Avg EV | Barrel% | Hard-Hit% | AVG |
| 2021 | 170 | 90.6 MPH | 11.6% | 44.2% | .194 |
| 2022 | 94 | 91.6 MPH | 11.1% | 44.4% | .232 |
Aside from the batted ball data, the veteran has made other noticeable improvements from last season that have helped to improve his batting average.
He improved his line-drive rate from 18.1% to 22.2%, an important philosophical change that some of the best hitters have noted and made this season because of changes to the baseball and the addition of humidors for ball storage. He also lowered his ground-ball rate and improved his chase rate.
Detractors will point out Lamb’s lack of power — just two home runs this season — but a career-low 9.5% HR/FB rate shows signs of bad luck, especially when his fly-ball rate is higher than in 2016 when he had 29 homers and in 2017 when he had 30.
Lamb may be put into a platoon next season, but, if he can catch on with a team that has a hole at third base and could use a veteran presence in the lineup every day (Miami, Washington, Detroit, Cincinnati, Oakland), he could return to that 2016-2017 form and be fantasy-relevant again.
Pittsburgh catcher Roberto Perez could be another potential Drury-esque player for next year.
The veteran catcher has a career .207 batting average thanks in large part to a 29.7% career strikeout rate, but he has managed to post his best average (.233) since 2019 (.239).
Many may point to a .364 BABIP inflating his AVG, and, yes, it most definitely is a reason for the improved AVG. However, a 7% increase in line-drive rate from last season to 20% this year makes a higher-than-usual BABIP and AVG more legitimate.
What makes him a candidate for a Brandon Drury breakout year next season is an improvement to batted ball data, much like Meneses and Lamb.
| Year | PA | Avg EV | Barrel% | Hard-Hit% | AVG |
| 2021 | 161 | 91 MPH | 12.6% | 41.1% | .149 |
| 2022 | 69 | 89.3 MPH | 11.4% | 51.4% | .233 |
Perez posted a career-best 12.6% barrel rate in 2021. His 11.4% barrel rate this season is the second best of his career and his 51.4% hard-hit rate this year is a career best.
While he did see a slight decrease in barrel rate from last season, his current rate would put him 30th among qualified hitters (tied with Adolis Garcia) and second among qualified catchers (behind Sean Murphy). Perez’s hard-hit rate would edge him ahead of Julio Rodriguez and Acuna for the 10th best among qualified hitters if the catcher qualified.
Because he does chase and strikeout so much, it is unlikely Perez makes a significant improvement in batting average; but a much better season in terms of counting stats could be due for him in 2023.
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