Welp, it looks like I hyped up my boy Vinnie Pasquantino one too many times. Shortly after making his fourth appearance in the waiver wire — and winning AL Player of the Week honors — the Italian Breakfast/Nightmare landed on the injured list. Sad Panda.
The good news is that Pasquantino has his sights set on a minimum 10-day IL stay. With his roster rate dropping once again, he could well find his way back into this column again next week. Stay tuned!
In the meantime, let’s lead off this week’s waiver wire with a young pitcher who was on the cusp of becoming a true fantasy ace before health and personal issues interrupted his breakout.
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FAABulous Four: Top Waiver Targets
Trevor Rogers (SP — MIA): 45% Rostered
On June 15, 2021, Rogers had a 1.87 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 10.5 K/9 rate — and a compelling case to be considered one of the best young pitchers in the game. Then his back began to act up, leading to an IL stint, and a private family matter also kept him away from the team. Rogers did not look remotely like the same pitcher over the first half of this season, and then returned to the IL with back spasms in late July. All told, he has posted an ugly 5.12 ERA and 1.51 WHIP since that high point in June 2021.
With that kind of recent track record, rostering Rogers in the stretch run of the fantasy season is not for the faint of heart. But it’s hard to completely discount how good the 24-year-old left-hander was in the first half of last season. Rogers has knocked around in his first two minor league rehab starts this month, but then he went out and struck out 12 over six no-hit innings in his most recent outing for Triple-A Jacksonville.
If you’re looking for a shot-in-the-dark candidate to dominate over the season’s final five weeks, look no further. Do you feel lucky?
Trevor Rogers (Triple-A rehab) flipped the switch all the way back on tonight 💡
6.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 12 K (86 pitches)
Could slide into Bryan Hoeing’s rotation spot next week pic.twitter.com/nw4RNbG2gg
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) August 26, 2022
Justin Steele (SP, RP — CHC): 45% Rostered
If you’re searching for a less volatile starter than Rogers, give Steele a look. That’s not something I would have said even a month ago, but the results speak for themselves. The Cubs’ left-hander was not a top prospect and did not make his first Major League start until he was 26 years old. But he’s held his own in the Big Leagues since Day One and has managed to pare down his bloated walk rate this season while still striking out more than a batter per inning.
The end result has been a strong 3.18 ERA that is mostly backed up by his xERA and xFIP. Steele has been particularly sharp of late, allowing one or zero runs in eight of his last 10 starts and striking out 45 batters over his last five starts. He left Friday’s start with lower back tightness, but that seems unlikely to keep him out long if at all.
Justin Steele, Filthy 84mph Slider. 😷 pic.twitter.com/FAADFnaMSX
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 21, 2022
Lars Nootbaar (OF — STL): 47% Rostered
Nootbaar is a player who needs to be rostered for his name alone. He sounds like someone you might run into in the Mos Eisley Cantina. But you don’t need to be a Star Wars fanatic to click “add” next to Nootbar’s name.
The Cardinals are a franchise that seems to constantly garner solid production from unexpected places, and Nootbaar is just the latest example. He has little prospect pedigree to speak of and his minor league numbers were fairly pedestrian. But he has excelled since earning regular playing time in St. Louis, hitting .310 with 21 runs, four homers, 14 RBIs, and two steals since July 26. He’s even worked his way up to the leadoff spot when the Cards are facing right-handed pitchers.
Lars Nootbaar has been ON FIRE lately 🔥🔥#STLCards #ItsDifferentHere #Cardinals #Cubs #MLB pic.twitter.com/dWKfVnzy6O
— Baseball Today (@dailymlbtweets) August 25, 2022
Randal Grichuk (OF — COL): 47% Rostered
Grichuk is the dictionary definition of a boring pickup, but those are the kind that can sometimes decide fantasy leagues. The 31-year-old outfielder has only managed to swat 13 home runs in 110 games this season, but he has at least contributed a solid .272 batting average and 60 RBIs. Grichuk hit 43 home runs in 206 games over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, so there is reason to believe he can do much better in terms of over-the-fence power, especially while playing his home games at Coors Field. He’s quietly hitting .344 with four homers and 17 RBIs over the last month.
Priority Pickups: <40% Rostered
Matt Manning (SP — DET): 21% Rostered
As a top-10 draft pick and top-20 prospect in baseball, Manning looked on the fast track to the Bigs after a dominant year in Double-A in 2019. But then Covid wiped out the 2020 minor league season, and Manning struggled badly in both Triple-A and Detroit in 2021. He allowed just one run over six innings in his 2022 debut, but then left his second start with shoulder inflammation and did not make his way back to Detroit’s rotation for nearly four months. His first start back wasn’t great, but since then he has posted an impressive 1.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 9.4 K/9 over 25 innings (four starts). Perhaps the breakthrough is finally happening — it’s worth adding him while we find out.
Drew Smyly (SP, RP — CHC): 22% Rostered
I recommended Smyly as an add last week, and he’s only strengthened his case since then by hurling seven innings of one-run ball against a tough Cardinals lineup. Click through for the details. I still find it difficult to give Smyly a full-throated endorsement, but we’ve seen more unlikely pitchers than him put up valuable fantasy numbers over the final month of seasons past.
Roansy Contreras (SP — PIT): 15% Rostered
Contreras posted a solid 3.84 ERA over his first 50 Major League innings but was demoted to Triple-A Indianapolis in late July as a way to limit his innings and preserve his health. He’s worth considering in all fantasy leagues now that he’s back. Contreras was hit around a bit by Boston in his first game back with the Pirates, but then went out and hurled seven strong innings against the Braves formidable lineup on August 22. His peripherals suggest he’s been somewhat fortunate to post a sub-4.00 ERA, but there is plenty of room for growth with a 22-year-old top-50 prospect who has posted a K/9 north of 12.00 in the minors.
Cade Cavalli (SP — WAS): 17% Rostered
A cursory look at Cavalli’s minor league numbers would not suggest he’s an absolute must-add, but he has been terrific for Triple-A Rochester since the start of July. Over that time period, he’s surrendered just six earned runs in 36 2/3 innings with a 43-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cavalli is a top-40 prospect in baseball and he’s likely up to stay for the rebuilding Nationals. His Big League debut against the Reds did not go well on Friday, due in large part to a lack of control (two BBs, three HBPs), but the defense and bullpen also had something to do with it. Assuming the Nats stick with him, Cavalli is lined up to get a favorable matchup with the A’s his next time out, and he still possesses intriguing potential for the season’s final month.
Rafael Montero (RP — HOU): 39% Rostered
If you’re in the market for the latest closer du jour, Montero is your man. A stiff neck has sent Astros closer Ryan Pressly to the injured list, opening the door for Montero to collect his eighth save on Thursday. While it’s possible Hector Neris or Bryan Abreu could see a save chance here or there, Montero has clearly established himself as the primary fill-in for Pressly by posting an excellent 2.56 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 9.40 K/9 rate.
Brandon Hughes (RP — CHC): 21% Rostered
Montero isn’t the only widely-available source of saves to consider this week; there’s also Hughes. The 26-year-old Cubs lefty has outperformed Rowan Wick this season — and looks to have overtaken him in the saves pecking order. Hughes has each of Chicago’s last three saves, and his healthy 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 11.79 K/9 rate can also help you.
Andres Munoz (RP — SEA): 26% Rostered
Munoz may not have as much of a stranglehold on ninth-inning duties as Montero and Hughes do, but he’s got even more impressive numbers otherwise. Munoz’s 14.47 K/9 is second to only Edwin Diaz among pitchers who have tossed 50+ innings, and his 2.47 ERA and 0.92 WHIP can be very helpful to your ratios over the rest of the season. The saves are just gravy.
The latest high-leverage showdown for Andrés Muñoz — a seven-pitch K to José Ramírez after falling behind 2-0 … J-Ram was shaking his head walking off. pic.twitter.com/W6n8PChLRU
— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) August 25, 2022
Jake Fraley (OF — CIN): 27% Rostered
Fraley is 27 years old and with his third different franchise, but he’s finally found his way into regular playing time in Cincinnati and he is taking advantage of the opportunity. Over the last month, he’s hitting .318 with 16 runs, six homers, and 14 RBIs, and while he hasn’t been playing against lefties, he’s emerged as the Reds’ leadoff man against right-handers.
Jake McCarthy (OF — ARI): 21% Rostered
McCarthy got a brief shout-out in last week’s waiver wire, but this time he doesn’t have to share his blurb with any of his teammates. McCarthy holds the most fantasy appeal in roto/categories leagues, where he can provide a big boost in steals. He’s nabbed 21 bases over 102 games between Triple-A Reno and the Majors this season, after stealing 32 at three different levels last year. But McCarthy has also more than held his own at the dish, hitting .279 with four homers for Arizona after hitting .369 with five homers at Reno.
Joey Meneses (1B, OF — WAS): 27% Rostered
Meneses’ roster rate has risen considerably since I recommended him as an add two weeks ago, but he is still free for the taking in nearly three-quarters of fantasy leagues. He’s continued to rake, strengthening his bid for the “Frank Schwindel prize” of 2022. Don’t let his advanced age (30) deter you from riding the hot hand in Washington.
Deep-League Targets: <10% Rostered
Brayan Bello (SP — BOS): 4% Rostered
It’s easy to lose sight of Bello as a waiver add given the bumpy start to his Major League career and the sheer number of other intriguing young pitchers available at the moment. But he still deserves our attention, particularly after striking out seven Blue Jays over five innings of two-run ball on Wednesday. After all, Bello is a top-40 prospect who has posted a 2.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 129 strikeouts over 96 minor league innings this season. The tangible upside he possesses is clear for all to see.
This is the Brayan Bello we’ve been waiting for. 👀pic.twitter.com/18yGf9CY4S
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) August 24, 2022
Keston Hiura (1B,2B — MIL): 5% Rostered
I’m always hesitant to recommend adding Hiura, a maddening player who can look like a superstar one moment and a guy who should be out of the league the next. It seemed unfathomable that he could strike out as much as he did last year, and yet he’s managed to pull it off, K-ing in a league-leading 41.9 percent of his plate appearances. He’s actually quite fortunate to have a .242 batting average. That said, he’s trimmed the strikeout rate to a slightly less disgusting 33.3 percent since July 1, a stretch where he’s hitting .308 with seven homers and two steals in just 60 plate appearances. He’s still not playing quite every day, but if you want to try to catch lightning in a bottle, you could give Hiura a try.
Evan Longoria (3B — SF): 7% Rostered
Longoria is a poor bet to stay healthy at this stage of his career, but he’s good to go right now and producing at a nearly-identical clip to what he did last season. Since the start of 2021, he’s hitting .260 with 25 HRs and 74 RBIs in 438 at-bats, which gives you a pretty good sense of what to expect from him if he can avoid any more trips to the IL. He’s been swinging a particularly hot bat lately, hitting .324 with three homers and nine RBIs since returning from his most recent malady on August 8.
Corey Dickerson (OF — STL): 3% Rostered
It’s been several years since Dickerson was a regular starter in 10- and 12-team fantasy leagues, but even at 33 years of age, he hasn’t lost the ability to hit for a decent average with a bit of pop. He may not have the same appeal as teammate Lars Nootbaar, but he does represent another example of the Cardinals getting the most out of their players. If for no other reason, you might want to consider adding Dickerson for how ridiculously hot he is right now: He has 11 hits in his last 14 at-bats!
Elehuris Montero (1B,3B — COL): 10% Rostered
Montero has sat out two of the last three games, so his playing time will have to be monitored. But as long as the emerging 24-year-old can continue to get regular playing time, he brings some intriguing fantasy appeal to the table. Montero hit .279 with 28 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last season and followed it up by hitting .310 with 15 HRs in 65 Triple-A games this year before getting the call to Colorado. It took him a little while to settle in at the Big League level, but he’s hitting .292 over the last month and has belted three home runs over the last week. Playing his home games at Coors Field certainly doesn’t hurt.
Alright, that’s it for this week. If you like what you see here, you can get more of my thoughts on waiver wire pickups, buy-low/sell-high candidates, rest-of-season player values, and more by subscribing to the Rest of Season Rankings podcast and going to ROSrankings.com. I’m also always happy to talk about anything fantasy-related on Twitter @andrew_seifter.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
