Sleepers can mean different things to different fantasy managers. We’re referring to players that we feel provide upside compared to their draft day cost, otherwise known as average draft position (ADP). Let’s look at our favorite early sleepers of the fantasy football draft season.
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
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Quarterback Sleepers
Justin Fields (CHI)
ECR QB17
Justin Fields has plummeted to QB18 in early best ball ADP. Everyone is afraid of the situation in Chicago. But don’t forget that a washed-up Cam Newton went from irrelevant to a top-12 ranked QB in one week last year because of rushing production.
Fields finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in his last four full games in 2021, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game. He also averaged 56 rushing yards per game over his last six. All in all, Fields averaged 35 rushing yards per game during his rookie season. The last three rookie QBs to do so? Newton, Josh Allen and Robert Griffin. They all finished as top-12 fantasy quarterbacks in their second seasons, with the two former QBs finishing top six.
It won’t take long for the narrative to spin on the talented Fields after he starts the season hot out of the gates. Five of the Bears’ first six matchups are against secondaries that are the weak part of their respective defense, lost talent in free agency, and/or are unproven.
In Week 1, Fields takes on the 49ers. He rushed for over 100 yards against them last season.
Jameis Winston (NO)
ECR QB19
The additions of Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are massive benefits for quarterback Jameis Winston, who is starting to emerge from this offseason as an intriguing late-round quarterback fantasy option.
Winston played with almost zero weapons a season ago and still managed to average 17.5 fantasy points per game — good for QB14 on the year. The Saints quarterback also finished the season with the league’s sixth-highest passer rating (102.8) and the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (3%) of his career.
Winston led all QBs last year in fantasy points per dropback (0.64). He also ranked fourth in aDOT, which lends itself to spiked fantasy weeks.
Running Back Sleepers
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
ECR RB36
Rhamondre Stevenson experienced a very successful rookie season that should not be overlooked. After fully escaping the Bill Belichick doghouse in Week 9, Stevenson earned top grades across the board.
He was PFF’s third-highest graded running back (84.2). Additionally, Stevenson ranked 13th in rushing yards and yards per route run (1.41). For fantasy, the rookie running back was the RB25 in total points scored, eight spots behind his backfield teammate Damien Harris.
Highest graded rookie RBs last 5 seasons per PFF
'21 Rhamondre Stevenson (81.1)
'20 Jonathan Taylor (80.7)
'19 Josh Jacobs (87.1)
'18 Nick Chubb (86.4)
'17 Alvin Kamara (90.4)decent company to be in
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) April 15, 2022
Stevenson (93) and Harris (86) split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s remaining seven games. In the six games together, Stevenson slightly edged out Harris in expected fantasy points per game (9.3 vs. 8.9).
There’s a high ceiling for Stevenson, especially if you ask former Patriots linebacker Rob Ninkovich. The ESPN analyst said that Stevenson “…will be one of the better, if not one of the top three, running backs in the league based on what I saw with his strength, explosion and catch-and-run ability.”
With rumors coming out of Foxborough that Stevenson is a dark horse to see an expanded role on third downs with James White returning from injury, the second-year back needs to be a priority target as the draft slips into the double-digit rounds.
#Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson was asked what he worked to improve on this offseason:
“Everything, but some focuses I had were route-running, being a third-down back.”
Stevenson caught 14 passes for 124 yards as a rookie.
— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) June 7, 2022
Rachaad White (TB)
ECR RB53
Rookie RB Rachaad White looks just like Leonard Fournette’s backup at the moment. But there’s an outcome where he delivers massive upside should Lenny go down with an injury or revert to Fat Lenny.
White has shades of David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell in his style of play, which didn’t go unnoticed by the new senior football consultant for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bruce Arians.
The Arizona State product ranked first in his class in receiving yards, No. 1 in yards per route run (2.24) and second in receptions (43). His 16% target share is bonkers for a running back at the college level, and it did wonders to generate his Day 2 draft capital.
Running backs drafted on Day 2 or earlier that have averaged at least 30 receiving yards/gm in their final college seasons:
Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne Jr. and Rachaad White 👀
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) May 2, 2022
The same sentiment can be made for White’s 31% dominator rating and 3.33 offensive yards per snap over the past two seasons. Both would have ranked in the top three in last year’s class.
His yards per snap and PFF receiving grade also rank first among the class. White’s career receiving grade was superior to anybody from last year’s class as well.
After a strong showing at Senior Bowl week — PFF’s highest-graded rusher (74.9) — and at the NFL combine — 38-inch vertical jump (86th percentile), 125-inch broad jump (87th percentile) — White has league-winning potential if given the opportunity in the Buccaneers’ offense.
Wide Receiver Sleepers
Christian Kirk (JAC)
ECR WR41
Everything came together for Christian Kirk in 2021 because he was finally used from the slot. Unsurprisingly, Kirk established career highs across the board in targets (112), receptions (83) and receiving yards (1,035) while filling the void left by an injured DeAndre Hopkins. He also finished top-20 among all WRs in PFF receiving grade versus man coverage (87th percentile) and in separation percentage (83rd percentile).
Kirk commanded a 21% target share without Hopkins in the lineup and averaged 13.8 fantasy PPR points per game — a top-10 per-game average. In addition, he finished with the second-most receiving yards from the slot among all wide receivers.
Kirk should stay kicked inside with the Jaguars after the team received little production from that position in 2021. Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault ranked in the bottom 10 with 1.30 yards per route run from the slot. Kirk ranked 13th with 1.80 yards per route run from the slot. He is shaping up to be the new Amari Rodgers for Trevor Lawrence, operating from the inside.
Rodgers was Lawrence’s go-to receiver during the quarterback’s final year at Clemson, so it makes sense why the Jags would spend so aggressively on a slot WR. And without much more in the way of established competition on the wide receiver depth chart, it’s not crazy to think Kirk can lead Jacksonville in targets, especially if he earns Lawrence’s trust early in the summer. Early OTA reports are that the two are building a strong connection.
Kirk’s 74% targets to slot rate ranked eighth among all WRs — a mark eerily close to the number generated by Jags slot receiver Jamal Agnew. Agnew went through a midseason stretch (Weeks 5-10) when he led Jacksonville in targets.
At worst, Kirk takes shape as a strong WR3 asset who can elevate to WR2 status quickly with an up-and-coming quarterback in a pass-heavy offense.
Ancillary Jaguars’ WRs Zay Jones and Laviska Shenault are also intriguing fliers in the later rounds to take dart throws on in a pass-heavy attack.
Jones played so well down the stretch in 2021 that he earned himself a three-year, $30 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The former Raider averaged a 25% target share, 10.7 half-point fantasy points per game (27th) and 12.8 expected half-point fantasy points per game (18th) in the team’s final five games, including playoffs.
He also led the team in total air yards (1,136).
The wideout is bound to be overlooked in fantasy despite a strong 2021 finish, so consider me a buyer in the very late rounds. Jones will be a starter on the outside and inherit the wide receiver role previously occupied by Laquon Treadwell. The former first-round pick finished the final six weeks of the fantasy season 10th in receiving yards with 381 — 64 per game.
Jones, like Treadwell, also finished the last five weeks top-10 in PFF receiving grade versus man coverage — further bolstering Jones’ case as a future playmaker on the boundary.
Shenault looks the odd-man out as a carry-over from a previous regime, but don’t be too quick to bury a player who is better than many perceive based on his team-leading 21% target rate per route run on 99 targets.
Especially considering the wide receivers going into Year 3 drafted in Round 2 who have eclipsed 170 targets since 2018 is a solid group to be associated with. Those names include JuJu Smith-Schuster, D.K. Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Courtland Sutton, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr. and Christian Kirk.
Remember, folks — targets are earned and are a sign of skill. So don’t write off a player coming off an abysmal season where the deck was stacked against him fully to produce. Shenault having a huge Year 3 wouldn’t be all that strange to witness.
If Deebo Samuel could overcome a super-low average depth of target (aDOT) and sophomore slump, Shenault might still have a chance to break out — whether it be in Duval or elsewhere.
I’d probably classify Jones as the better value fantasy asset – the best bet to beat ADP – while Shenault remains the true sleeper due to his wide range of outcomes.
Allen Lazard (GB)
ECR WR40
The Packers have the fourth-most vacated target space from last season, creating an opportunity for veteran Allen Lazard to step up and post career-high numbers.
Aaron Rodgers trusts Lazard after they have spent the last four seasons together, and their chemistry was on full display over the final five weeks of the 2021 regular season.
Allen Lazard stock ⬆️⬆️⬆️ pic.twitter.com/Shug3gFfjZ
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) June 8, 2022
Lazard was the WR8 in PPR scoring on the back of 21 receptions for 290 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
Someone on Green Bay will have to replace Davante Adams‘ elite red-zone production, and Lazard looks to fit the mold at 6-foot-5.
The former Iowa State product has also stepped up in Adams’ absence before, most notably back in 2020 against the New Orleans Saints. With Adams sidelined, Lazard caught six of eight targets for 146 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
ECR WR36
Fantasy managers are still trying to figure out what went wrong with Brandon Aiyuk during the first half of last season. He was hyped up after an impressive rookie campaign but suffered a hamstring injury during training camp, making him unreliable in the starting offense. Through Weeks 1-7, Aiyuk had just one weekly finish inside the top-25. He also averaged an abysmal 0.63 yards per route run — a mark that ranked 98th out of 102 qualifying WRs. Woof.
But give credit to Aiyuk for turning his season around during the second half. His yards per route run increased substantially (2.16, 13th), and he averaged 13.1 PPR fantasy points per game as the WR24. The former first-round pick also ranked sixth in yards after the catch per reception (6.9).
If Aiyuk can roll over his second-half production into 2022, he could be a smashing fantasy value in a similar way that Deebo Samuel was viewed in 2021. His overall disappointing sophomore campaign should not overshadow his electric rookie season.
There’s a lot of general ambiguity about how the San Francisco 49ers’ offense will look with Trey Lance under center, but we know the upside is sky-high from a fantasy perspective. There’s no denying Aiyuk’s talent/production when given the opportunity, and there’s a chance he could form a special downfield connection with Lance’s rocket arm.
49ers’ wide receiver coach Leonard Hankerson also believes that Year 3 is the perfect time to expect Aiyuk’s impending breakout.
Take the chance on a suppressed Aiyuk, who won’t cost nearly the arm and leg that Deebo will cost to draft. Their target rate per route run was nearly identical (21%) during the second half of the season.
Tight End Sleepers
Cole Kmet (CHI)
ECR TE12
It’s bizarre to be so confident projecting a tight end breakout, but that’s how strongly I feel about Chicago Bears’ tight end, Cole Kmet.
Because no tight end should make a bigger leap in 2022 than the third-year tight end, whose upside has been capped by a lack of touchdown equity with veteran Jimmy Graham rearing his ugly head the past few seasons, but Graham’s currently a free agent, opening the door for Kmet to smash in 2022.
Kmet’s eighth-ranked route participation and seventh-ranked target share (17%) from 2021 hardly align with his fantasy production — no tight end finished with more fantasy points under expectation (-36.6) than the Notre Dame product in 2021.
That designation is a sign Kmet is due for a fantasy breakout. It signaled as much for guys like Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox, who scored fewer points than expected in 2020 before contributing in fantasy this past year. Both tight ends finished 2021 as top-10 options at the position in fantasy points per game.
The Chicago Bears hired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to pair with second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Getsy should be able to build an offense more conducive to Fields’ mobility — something he had success with at Mississippi State as its former OC.
An overall offensive boost should help fuel Kmet as 2022’s breakout tight end. In addition, he has the requisite size and athleticism, sporting an 87th-percentile height, 88th-percentile vertical jump, and 89th-percentile broad jump.
Kmet checks off all the boxes for a tight end breakout.
Gerald Everett (LAC)
ECR TE20
Gerald Everett is easily one of my favorite late-round tight ends, so I am glad the consensus is finally starting to catch on. He was solid during stretches of the 2021 season, particularly after Russell Wilson returned from injury. The ex-Rams tight end ranked as the TE9 in fantasy points per game (PPR) from Weeks 10-16 while running a route on 74% of dropbacks.
Everett proved he could be the featured No. 1 tight end for the Chargers coming off a career year. He achieved career-highs in receptions (48) and receiving yards (478) and wreaked havoc with the ball in his hands, forcing 11 missed tackles after the catch — sixth-most among tight ends.
His peripheral metrics in Seattle’s offense — 12% target share, 63% route participation, and 17% target rate per route run — were nearly identical to Jared Cook in the Chargers’ offense last season.
Cook finished as TE16 overall, which seems like Everett’s fantasy floor heading into 2022. However, the tackle-breaking tight end finished the 2021 season just .4 points per game short of Cook’s average (8.3 versus 7.9) despite playing in an offense that ranked dead last in pass attempts per game (29.1).
LA ranked third in that category last season (39.6). They also ranked ninth in TE targets overall.
Breakout tight ends are generally athletic players who earn above-average route participation in high-powered offenses. Everett fits the profile of next season’s star at the position after finishing No. 1 overall in separation rate (98th percentile) in 2021. And he’s still super cheap at TE23.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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