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8 Worst Value Picks by ADP (2022 Fantasy Football)

Aug 12, 2022

Drafting your fair share of the so-called “right” players is a must if you hope to contend for your league’s championship, but avoiding land-mine players is just as important. Fantasy managers who burned valuable early-round draft capital on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Allen Robinson, Mike Davis, Robby Anderson or Trey Sermon last year unwittingly weakened their own lineups and missed an opportunity to acquire valuable building blocks with those picks.

Which players could sabotage your 2022 fantasy season? Our featured analysts name 8 players who could underperform their ADPs this year. Read on to see which performers you should avoid in your drafts.

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Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

1. Who is the worst value pick at QB based on his current ADP and why?

Patrick Mahomes (KC): Consensus ADP – QB2 | 35th Overall
“By the end of the third round, Patrick Mahomes will likely be drafted in your league (and Josh Allen, for that matter). I personally would not take either until the 4th round, and I especially wouldn’t consider Mahomes that highly in a one QB league. There’s just so much value at the position in the later rounds, and I’d much rather wait and keep drafting running backs and wide receivers in the first few rounds. On top of the overall draft strategy angle, I’m not confident Mahomes will be a top-3 fantasy QB without Tyreek Hill.”
Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

“Patrick Mahomes ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0) and averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (25.2) despite having Tyreek Hill in the fold. The Chiefs QB also posted the highest bust rate among QBs currently inside the top 3 per ADP (25%). Heading into 2022, Hill’s departure cannot be ignored. The duo ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 — despite Mahomes not becoming the starter until the 2018 season.”
Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Tom Brady (TB): Consensus ADP – QB9 | 88th Overall
“Tom Brady. I know, I know — don’t blaspheme the GOAT. But realize that never in the Super Bowl era have we seen a quarterback make a start at age 45. We HAVE seen Hall of Fame QBs — Brett Favre and Peyton Manning — play at a high level one year and tumble over the age cliff the next. Brady’s longtime running mate, TE Rob Gronkowski, announced his retirement. The middle of the Tampa offensive line has been gutted by retirement, injury and free agency. Stud WR Chris Godwin is coming back from a late-season ACL tear. Maybe Brady shrugs it all off and throws another great season onto the pile. It’s not a wager I’m willing to make.”
Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

2. Who is the worst value pick at RB based on his current ADP and why?

Elijah Mitchell (SF): Consensus ADP – RB23 | 50th Overall
Trey Lance as the new starting QB in San Francisco has me less confident in selecting certain 49ers like George Kittle and Elijah Mitchell around the 4th round of fantasy drafts. While Mitchell was good last year when he was active, he also missed time for various injuries and only played in 11 regular season games. San Francisco drafted Tyrion Davis-Price in the third round this year, and it’s possible Trey Sermon (a third-round pick himself) finally gets more playing time. This backfield can be valuable for fantasy, but I’m not confident enough in Mitchell to draft him this early.”
Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

David Montgomery (CHI): Consensus ADP – RB17 | 34th Overall
“Just don’t draft David Montgomery and thank me later. Projected volume is the sole reason he’s going where his ADP is RB16, but a new coaching staff could approach the backfield differently. And don’t gloss over that Monty finished outside the top 24 in more than half of his games last season (46%) despite being an entrenched workhorse with a top-10 opportunity share. In my heart of hearts, I think Khalil Herbert is the better, more explosive back.”
Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Leonard Fournette (TB): Consensus ADP – RB14 | 24th Overall
“Leonard Fournette finished RB6 in half-PPR last year largely because he caught a ton of dump-off passes from a quarterback who’s in his mid-40s and really doesn’t like to be hit anymore. Fournette had that role mostly to himself because Giovani Bernard was hurt and Ronald Jones was a train wreck in the passing game. Now, Gio is healthy and the Buccaneers have a rookie, Rachaad White, who’s a competent pass catcher/blocker. As for the outlook in the running game, guard Ali Marpet retired, guard Alex Cappa left in free agency, and center Ryan Jensen is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Fournette could be in for a value crash.”
Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

3. Who is the worst value pick at WR based on his current ADP and why?

Hunter Renfrow (LV): Consensus ADP – WR32 | 83rd Overall
“I’m going a bit deeper with my WR pick here and saying that even in the middle rounds, people are overpaying for Hunter Renfrow coming off a career year. While he played in all 17 games in 2021 and easily led the Raiders with 128 targets, Davante Adams is ready to dominate the target share in Vegas now. Not only do I expect fewer targets in general, but Renfrow should also see fewer red zone targets. I also think there are more exciting WR options in this area of drafts like Rashod Bateman and DeVonta Smith, so I’m not ending up with Renfrow anywhere this year. ”
Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

DeAndre Hopkins (ARI): Consensus ADP – WR42 | 96th Overall
“DeAndre Hopkins will be suspended six games for violating the NFL’s Performance Enhancing Drug policy but still is being drafted as a WR3. He can’t be drafted this high with him unavailable for the majority of the season. Hopkins wasn’t the same dominant target hog in 2021 as he had been for so many years prior. He battled through injuries and produced just one game with double-digit targets and two games with 80-plus receiving yards. Hopkins saw double-digit targets eight times and went over 80 receiving yards seven times in 2020. It’s hard to imagine drafting Hopkins with the six-game suspension baked in, and it’s not worth the roster management headache when the start of the season is so crucial for waiver wire transactions.”
Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Adam Thielen (MIN): Consensus ADP – WR31 | 73rd Overall
“No one is going to completely torpedo their title chances by drafting Adam Thielen too early, but … Adam Thielen is being drafted too early. He’s about to turn 32 and is coming off a season in which he posted career worsts in yards per catch (10.8) and yards per target (7.6). Justin Jefferson is the unquestioned alpha receiver in Minnesota, and K.J. Osborn has come on quickly as a peripheral target. Thielen would have to continue his extraordinary run of TD luck (14 and 10 the last two seasons) to return a profit at this price.”
Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)


Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

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