There are probably many baseball managers out there working hard to reach their innings limit because of injuries to Zach Wheeler (PHI), Shane McClanahan (TB), Tony Gonsolin (LAD), Max Scherzer (NYM), and Justin Verlander (HOU). Also, we’re reaching a point in the year where the truly consistent pitchers separate themselves from the pack. That’s right! Some of our top pitchers may be…tiring. Let’s face it, pitching at this level for six months is one of the hardest things in sports. Sandy Alcantara had a tough outing against Philadelphia last week and has a 4.70 ERA in the last month. But he has already pitched 196.2 innings. Should we wonder if Joe Musgrove is tiring, too? He has a 4.39 ERA in his last 26.2 innings.
If you’re competing to rank in your league standings, nobody could fault you for considering other options here and there down the stretch. Sometimes, we must weigh all factors. That doesn’t mean dropping your ace, but it might mean fading him against a tough team for a fresh arm against a weak team.
So let me arrange a smorgasbord of options for this week. Remember that I aim to select pitchers owned in 30% or less of Yahoo leagues (to increase the likelihood of availability), and I must choose a pitcher even if it’s a bad day to select a streamer at this level.
Based on these requirements, Hunter Brown is my two-start pitcher of the week and worth holding on to for the stretch run. As of writing this, I’m also holding Quintana from last week for the start against Cincinnati. Finally, my favorite game all around is Nick Lodolo against Pittsburgh.
That’s the quick rundown. Here’s the day-to-day.
Monday, September 12
Hunter Brown (HOU) at DET: 34%
The 24-year-old was a fifth-round draft pick in 2019, and in Triple-A this year, he has thrown 106 innings. During that time, he had a 2.55 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, an 11.38 K/9, a 54.2% GB% and a supreme 0.42 HR/9. Brown won his start against Texas on September 5th, going six innings with five strikeouts and zero earned runs. We are not certain of the timeline for Verlander’s return yet, and there is some speculation that Brown will end up in the bullpen for the stretch run. Verlander will still need a rehab game or two. If you can’t get Brown, Reid Detmers is another option. Detmers struggled against Detroit and Houston recently, but other than those two starts, I like his 4.04 FIP and 4.07 SIERA alongside decent strikeout numbers at this level of streaming. Cleveland is 28th in runs scored over the last month, so they’ve been slumping. Their top hitter, Jose Ramirez, is batting .213 in his last 47 at-bats.
Other options: Reid Detmers (LAA) at CLE: 38%
Tuesday, September 13
Bailey Falter (SP, RP – PHI) at MIA: 23%
I’m going to try out Falter here, even though it looks like he’ll oppose Sandy Alcantara. Falter has a 4.02 ERA, but in his last four starts, he owns a 2.72 ERA. He got the win for every single one of them. Okay, so those starts came against the Pirates, Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Mets. Still, we’ve seen his success versus Miami, and his team can give him run support against Alcantara (they certainly did the last time they faced him). Miami is dead last in hits versus lefties. The one mark against Falter is that he gives up a lot of flyballs, but we can hope that isn’t an issue against the Marlins, who are also 28th in home runs against lefties.
Other options: Luis Cessa (CIN) vs. PIT: 4% and Dean Kremer (BAL) at WSH: 26%
Wednesday, September 14
Nick Lodolo (SP – CIN) vs PIT: 37%
I like Lodolo. I mean, I don’t know him as a person. But frankly, as a pitcher, I’m surprised that he isn’t owned in more leagues. The 24-year-old former first-round pick is starting to show some glimpses of real long-term value. Lodolo has a 3.78 ERA (3.48 xFIP) and an 11.33 K/9. I could scare you and say that Pittsburgh is actually a better team versus lefties, but it’s hard to find those strikeout numbers and an ERA under 4.00 at this level of streaming. Lodolo’s sinker is his mainstay: He throws it 54% of the time, and it achieves a CSW of 32.3%. He also gets batters to hit that pitch on the ground 50.5% of the time. His secondary pitch, the curveball, has similar numbers but an even better xAVG (.104 versus .232 on the sinker). His changeup isn’t as effective, and I have to believe that he’ll become an even better pitcher when he has more success with a third pitch. But then again, he could make it work with his two bread-and-butter offerings. Let’s pick him up.
Other options: none
Thursday, September 15
Dylan Bundy (SP – MIN) vs KC: 17%
This is not a great day to stream a pitcher. With eight games on tap, most of the options are owned in too many leagues, or the matchup is scary. Since I must choose someone, I’m going with Dylan Bundy. He owns a 4.42 FIP, which is a way for me to avoid saying he owns a 4.68 ERA. But the matchup is decent, as Kansas City is 24th in runs scored. You should know that KC has been doing better lately, scoring 60 runs in the last 15 days. The 29-year-old’s last outing against Cleveland was his worst outing of the season, but Bundy had a 2.63 ERA in August. Still, I cannot tell a lie. It’s easy for me to see the culprit for his good work: stranding more runners. We might say that he’s just been a clutch pitcher based on skill, but there is luck baked into the recent run of success, and that game against Cleveland is the reality. The Royals are in the middle of the pack this season with a higher BABIP, so maybe their real value and Bundy’s good luck will lead to a good matchup. I hope we’re the lucky ones.
Other options: none
Friday, September 16
Drew Smyly (SP – CHC) vs COL: 18%
This is also a difficult day to stream, but for my money, it’s Smyly all the way. The 33-year-old has a 3.57 ERA, and he’s coming off a stellar start against the Giants, where he struck out eight batters over seven innings for a win. His only real blip since the beginning of August was a game against the Cardinals where he gave up seven runs. If we remove that one game, he has had a 0.73 ERA since the beginning of August. With a 4.32 xERA and almost every single metric looking the same as the previous several seasons, we should be relatively worried that more bad outings are on the horizon. But Colorado has not been a fierce run-scoring team for most of the season, so maybe we can tiptoe through this one with another good outing. Smile, Smyly. We’re going to believe in you for this Friday of baseball.
Other options: none
Saturday, September 17
Jose Quintana (SP – STL) vs CIN: 38%
I’m loving Quintana’s 3.41 ERA and his 3.19 FIP. I’m loving that his team is first in runs scored in the past thirty days. I love that he’s throwing his changeup more and putting it right in the zone (23.7% in 2022 versus 18.3% in 2021). He had a great groundball rate before, but on that changeup, it has ballooned to nearly 70%. We can see a considerable change in soft contact as well (18.9% soft contact this year versus 12.5% last year). With that premium defense behind him, this is an easy play and a pitcher I am not dropping from last week’s streaming fun.
Other options: Jake Odorizzi (ATL) vs PHI: 19%
Sunday, September 18
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs OAK: 34%
Everything from Monday’s blurb applies, except to add that Oakland is 29th in runs-scored, and in the last month, they are striking out a lot more. In fact, they struck out 242 times in thirty days (7th in the league), which is tied with the Cubs and the Pirates. They are 6th in strikeouts in the entire league versus right-handed pitching. It’s safe to say that Oakland has struggled this year. I’m ready to get out the popcorn and watch Hunter Brown against Detroit and Oakland in this 22nd week of baseball.
Other options: none
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