Welcome back to The Heat Index!
For those unfamiliar with the column, every Tuesday during the NFL season, we dig into the players whose performances the prior week jumped out to us the most. Along with their stats (half-point PPR scoring) and positional rank for the week, we’ll rank their rest-of-season prospects on a scale of 🔥-to-🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥. Week 2 featured some thrilling comebacks, with a few players involved listed below.
Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice 
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
Stat-line: 36 of 50 passing for 469 yards with six TDs and two INTs
QB Rank: 2
Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa figures to be one of the top waiver wire adds this week after the Dolphins’ stunning fourth-quarter comeback over the Ravens Sunday. But should he be? His fourth quarter was truly amazing, but before that, he was having a so-so game. In addition, Tagovailoa’s Week 1 wasn’t extraordinary.
The argument favoring a breakout revolves around his two dynamic receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. These two are special and should generate plenty of yards after the catch, even if Tua struggles to get them the ball downfield. The contrary opinion is that he will likely never come close to replicating that fourth quarter as Tua hasn’t proven himself to be a consistent fantasy football starting quarterback.
Time will tell, but for now, it feels like Tua is worth gambling on, given the potential upside. You may not want to start him next week, though, as the Dolphins face a tough Buffalo defense.
Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥
Wide Receiver
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
Stat-line: Eight receptions off 14 targets for 102 yards and two TDs
WR Rank: 6
Analysis: The Jets mounted a fourth-quarter comeback of their own Sunday, scoring two TDs with less than two minutes remaining to shock the Browns. The last touchdown went to the young Garrett Wilson, who impressed in his second career game. Wilson is third on the Jets’ wide receiver depth chart, having played 80 snaps through two weeks compared to 105 for Corey Davis and 128 for Elijah Moore. However, his 14% target share ranks second on the team, only slightly behind Davis, and he’s been targeted on a whopping 64.7% of his routes. Joe Flacco has been looking for him when he’s out there.
Wilson’s talent is evident, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, and the dynamic may change when Zach Wilson returns from injury. Wilson probably won’t produce consistently, but he’s a player that can be started in plus matchups and to cover bye weeks. If either Davis or Moore misses time, he jumps into the must-start category.
Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Nelson Agholor (WR – NE)
Stat-line: Six receptions off six targets for 110 yards and a TD
WR Rank: 11
Analysis: Nelson Agholor was a forgotten man on draft day, ranking fourth among Patriots’ receivers in ADP and drafted in very few leagues. Yet, two weeks in, he’s their leading receiver in fantasy points scored. He trails Jakobi Meyers in targets, catches and yards but has a TD, and Meyers doesn’t. The other Patriots wideouts have done little, most notably DeVante Parker, who only has one catch this season despite playing the most snaps at the position. Parker and Mac Jones are still working on their chemistry, but that will improve in time. When it does, Agholor’s 16.7% target share will probably drop.
The 2022 Patriots’ offense looks a lot like the 2021 version, making all of their wideouts relatively unappealing. Agholor’s ceiling is probably the second-best receiver on a team that doesn’t throw very often. Despite his early success, it’s hard to trust that he will be useful for fantasy this year outside of extremely deep leagues.
Heat Index: 🔥🔥
Running Back
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
Stat-line: Nine carries for 43 yards and a TD; Four receptions off seven targets for 55 yards
RB Rank: 3
Analysis: Many have been clamoring for Tony Pollard to supplant Ezekiel Elliott as the snap leader among Cowboys’ running backs. It hasn’t happened yet, but it may soon if Pollard puts together more games like Sunday. In reality, both backs will play. Elliott will get more carries and Pollard more catches. Pollard is the preferred option in PPR leagues, as Zeke looks like he needs to score to be of value for fantasy. As was the case Sunday, Pollard could be a frequent dump-off candidate for Cooper Rush until Dak Prescott returns, which would keep his floor high.
Pollard was a top-30 running back in PPR and half-point PPR leagues last season. That shouldn’t change, but until we see something different with his usage, or if Elliott misses time, he isn’t likely to climb to another tier. For now, he’s a solid flex option with the potential to ascend higher, given the Cowboys’ lack of playmakers.
Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Tight End
Ross Dwelley (TE – SF)
Stat-line: One reception off one target for 38 yards and a TD
TE Rank: 9
Analysis: Ross Dwelley caught only one pass Sunday and was a top-10 tight end for the week. Such is the state of the position through two weeks of the 2022 season. In fairness to Dwelley, his one catch was a doozy, which gave the 49ers a commanding lead early in the second quarter. However, with George Kittle out, the Niners rotated three players at tight end, and Dwelley wasn’t even the snap leader. Even if Kittle continues to miss time, Dwelley is not someone you should consider to back-fill the position.
Heat Index: 🔥
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