Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews. Now, let’s dive into this Steelers vs. Browns matchup in Cleveland on Thursday Night Football.

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

CLE -3, O/U 40.5

Best Prop Bets for Browns vs. Steelers

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game should finish at least average for play volume. While Cleveland isn’t very surprising, ranking 18th in neutral pace, the Steelers are tenth though and could help to keep things respectable in the total play category.
• No Ben Roethlisberger. No care. Despite trotting out Mitch Trubisky under center, Pittsburgh has completed two games and sits tenth in neutral passing rate. While the volume might be ugly, it’s still present.

Quarterbacks

Mitch Trubisky: The matchup for Trubisky is decent. The Browns are 24th in pass defense DVOA, 14th in yards per play, and ninth in net yards per pass attempt allowed. The problem is Trubisky has been his usual wretched self. After two games among 34 quarterbacks (minimum 20 dropbacks), he ranks 19th in PFF passing grade, 33rd in yards per attempt, and 31st in adjusted completion rate. If Trubisky starts off stinking up the joint this week, we can’t rule out a Kenny Pickett sighting. Trubisky is a risky low-end QB without much reward.

Jacoby Brissett: Let the putrid quarterback bowl commence. Brissett is on the same level as Trubisky. The only silver lining is he can retain his job despite playing at a below-replacement level. Through two games among the same 34 quarterback sample as Trubisky, Brissett is 17th in PFF passing grade, 28th in yards per attempt, and 25th in big-time throw rate. The Steelers are ninth in pass defense DVOA allowing the 11th-lowest net yards per pass attempt. The one helpful factoid for Brissett is that Pittsburgh can’t pressure the quarterback. After two games, they have the eighth-lowest blitz rate and rank 24th in pressure rate, so while Brissett is god awful, he should have time in the pocket to deliver decent pop gun passes in Week 2. Brissett is a basement level QB2.

Running Backs

Najee Harris: Harris saw his snap share and volume return in Week 2. He played 71% of the snaps with 20 touches and 89 total yards. Concerns in his profile still exist. While his target per route run was at 31.5% in Week 2, he still only ran a route on 51.3% of dropbacks. This isn’t nearly good enough to consider Harris a locked-in RB1 weekly. The Browns have been tough on the run through two weeks. They are top-ten in explosive run rate, rush success, and second-level yards allowed. Harris is a volume-play RB2.

Weeks 1-2

Nick Chubb: Chubb is coming off a monster performance in Week 2 with 20 touches and 113 total yards. After two games, that’s close to the weekly watermark for Chubb as he’s averaged 21.5 touches and 128 total yards through two games. Chubb remains one of the best running backs in the NFL, ranking 11th in yards after contact per attempt, first in missed tackles forced, and fourth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). This is a tough matchup for Chubb, though, so temper expectations. The Steelers are 15th in rush EPA while allowing the fourth-lowest explosive run rate and third-lowest rushing success rate. Chubb’s 17-20 touches weekly and touchdown equity keep him as a top 15 running option.

When you start Nick Chubb BUT…

It’s a Kareem Hunt Week…😳😂 pic.twitter.com/IHPXPCt9DL

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) September 20, 2022

Kareem Hunt: This game sets up as a Hunt game. After two games, he’s averaged 15 touches and 72 total yards with a 10.5% target share. If the Browns’ defense continues its struggles against passing, it’s conceivable the Steelers will jump out to a lead. That means more snaps for Hunt through the air, playing 84.4% of the Browns’ third down snaps. The Steelers are tough against the run but more pliable for backs through the air. They are 22nd in DVOA and have seen the fifth most running back targets giving up the sixth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards. Hunt is an RB2 with RB1 upside this week.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Johnson is just that dude. After two games, he has a 31.4% target share with 39.7% of the team’s air yards. He’s seventh in weighted opportunity at wide receiver. Johnson will run about 95% of his routes against Martin Emerson and Denzel Ward this week. Both corners are struggling out the gate. Emerson has allowed a 72.7% catch rate and 113.4 passer rating. Ward has given up a disgusting 85.7% catch rate and 158.3 passer rating. Johnson is a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside.

Chase Claypool: Claypool has seen a 17.1% target share producing a pitiful 0.59 yards per route run and 0.33 weighted opportunity. He’s yet to see an endzone target. He’ll run about 87% of his routes inside against Greg Newsome, who has allowed a 64.3% catch rate and 120.8 passer rating. Claypool is a WR4 this week.

George Pickens: The preseason is in the rearview with Pickens hype. With the bright lights of the regular season beaming down, Pickens has only garnered an 8.6% target share with 22.7% of the team’s air yards. With the volume, he’s only mustered 0.36 yards per route run, but this week he’s a WR5 with some fashionable upside. He is the team’s deep threat (team-leading four deep targets) with a 21.2 aDOT facing a secondary that’s 25th in DVOA against deep passing. He’ll run about 88% of his routes against Ward and Emerson.

Amari Cooper: Cooper bounced back from a WR79 showing in Week 1 with a WR12 finish this past week. Cooper’s handled a 28.1% target share with 42.4% of the Browns’ air yards. He’s 12th in weighted opportunity among wideouts (minimum five targets). He’ll run about 82% of his routes against Akhello Witherspoon and Levi Wallace. Witherspoon has been erratic through two games giving up a 78.6% catch rate and 116.1 passer rating. Wallace has been beatable, giving up a 70% catch rate and 92.9 passer rating. Cooper is a volume-drive WR3.

Donovan Peoples-Jones: After standing out in Week 1 as a possible waiver wire darling, Peoples-Jones came crashing back to earth. In Week 1, he saw a 36.7% target share. That fell to 3.7% in Week 2, with his only target coming in the end zone. People-Jones will run about 68% of his routes against Witherspoon and Wallace. He’s a desperation WR6 (low-end flex).

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth has been a volume monster with a 22.5% target share and 76.9% route per dropback clip. He’s been an integral endzone target for the Steelers again this year. The Browns have ranked seventh and ninth in DVOA against the position over the last two seasons. They were vulnerable in the touchdown column, though, with the sixth-most receiving touchdowns allowed. With his high-value role in this offense, Freiermuth is a rock-solid TE1.

David Njoku: David Njoku’s route per dropback numbers scream top 12 tight end this year with a 74.2% route per dropback rate, but his target volume hasn’t lived up to the routes yet. He’s only seen a 9.8% target share. This week against a tough Steelers defense, he’s only a mid-TE2. Pittsburgh has ranked tenth and second in DVOA against the position over the last two seasons.

*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*