Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews. If you’re looking for the complete primer, here’s a link to it:

• The Primer: Week 1 Edition

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Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks

• DEN -6, O/U 42
• Broncos at Seahawks Betting Matchup via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• If Nathaniel Hackett’s history in Green Bay is any insight into his playcalling tendencies in Denver, the Broncos could pass a healthy amount, but their pace could be disgusting. Over the last three seasons, the Packers were 32nd in neutral pace and 11th in passing rate in close games.
• Seattle was seventh in neutral pace last season, but they were 17th in passing rate. In Geno Smith‘s three starts last year, the Seahawks operated at 27.7 seconds per snap and passed the ball on 55.3% of their plays when the score was within eight points. That would have ranked them at 14th and 20th in neutral pace and passing rate for the entire year.

Injuries

• Broncos News – Injury Reports
• Seahawks News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: Let’s Ride. Sorry, I know this joke is played out. I’m sorry I couldn’t help myself. Russell Wilson will be riding into your good graces this week against his former team in Week 1. Dang, it. I did it again. He’ll be stacking up fantasy points against the Seahawks that ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA last year, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and tenth in yards per attempt allowed. Nathaniel Hackett coordinated an offense last year that led Aaron Rodgers to rank 14th in play-action passing attempts last year. This will be pivotal against a pass defense that was ninth in play-action yards per attempt in 2021.

Geno Smith: Geno Smith quietly played well last year when he was the Seahawks’ starter. He was the 16th highest graded passer per PFF while also sitting at third in big-time throw rate and second in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). While no one is starting Smith this week outside of psychotic 16-team leagues, this does offer some hope. Denver was 20th in pass defense DVOA last year with the 11th-lowest yards per attempt and fifth-fewest passing touchdowns allowed.

Running Backs

Last season with both backs active

Javonte

Williams and Melvin Gordon: Yeah, that is about as even a split as you can possibly get in the NFL for running back work. The matchup for both backs on the ground is brutal. Last year, Seattle was top eight in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. They had the lowest explosive run rate allowed last year. That said, they were surprisingly soft in the red zone, ranking 20th in run defense inside the 20. On talent alone, Javonte Williams would be considered matchup-proof if he had the backfield to himself after ranking top ten last year in yards created per touch, evaded tackles, and juke rate. Melvin Gordon is also no slouch, ranking ninth in juke rate, seventh in evaded tackles, and 26th in yards created per touch last season.

While both backs are good bets for double-digit touches and red zone work, the plausible ceiling for either has to come via the passing game. Williams should get the nod here as he bested Gordon in yards per route run while also ranking 30th in PFF receiving grade (minimum 20 targets). Seattle was historically bad against running backs in the passing game last year. They were 32nd in DVOA with the most targets, receptions, and receiving yards allowed to the position. To put this in further context, you have to go back to 2007 (Detroit Lions) to find another team that allowed over 1,000 receiving yards to running backs in a single season (2021 SEA, 1,106).

Rashaad Penny and Ken Walker: Rashaad Penny was excellent to close 2021. In Weeks 14-18, he averaged 18.4 rushing attempts and 134.2 rushing yards per game as the RB1 in fantasy football. He only ran a route on 32.2% (per PFF) of Russell Wilson‘s dropbacks last year, so don’t expect much from him in the receiving game despite the fact that Denver was 25th in DVOA last year. The Broncos were 24th and 14th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards last year, but they limited big plays well. They were eighth in open field yards and 10th in explosive run rate allowed. Currently, it sounds like Ken Walker won’t be suiting up this week. If he does, expect him to be limited and unstartable.

Update: Ken Walker missed Friday’s practice. I doubt he plays this week.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy: Courtland Sutton has been discussed all offseason as Russell Wilson‘s go-to wide receiver in camp. Now it’s time to show off the rapport. Sutton struggled through bad quarterback play and came off an ACL injury last year as the WR51 in fantasy points per game. His yards per route run and route win rate were outside the top 60 wide receivers. With improved quarterback play and another year of health, the hope is that he reclaims the promise he flashed in 2019. That season he was 12th in yards per route run and seventh in yards per route run when targeted deep. Last season Seattle was fifth in DVOA against deep passing, so Sutton’s field-stretching skill (sixth in deep targets last year) won’t be needed.

Jerry Jeudy played from the slot on 76% of his snaps last season. He showed improvement last year, ranking 27th in yards per route run, but he has never been a high target earner. He’s finished 35th and 30th in targets per route run in his first two seasons. Wilson could focus more on Jeudy this week against a team that was 31st against short passing last year. He’ll see Justin Coleman in coverage from the slot, which allowed a 69.4% catch rate and 67.6 passer rating last year.

K.J. Hamler: K.J. Hamler should rotate between the slot and outside this week. Coming off a tough season-ending injury last year and with the Broncos’ usage of 12 personnel up in the air, Hamler might not be a full-time player in his first game back. This isn’t the week to consider him for your lineups.

D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett: D.K. Metcalf played last season with Geno Smith and a watered-down version of Russell Wilson under center and still managed to finish as WR20. Last season he was eighth in target share (27.3%), 24th in targets per snap, and 20th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets). Metcalf has the talent to pop off any week, but this is one to consider other options if you have other WR3 types in better matchups. He’ll run about 80% of his routes against Patrick Surtain and Ronald Darby. Surtain was excellent in his rookie season, giving up a 57.6% catch rate and 69.7 passer rating. Darby was his usual solid self with a 57.8% catch rate and 93.6 passer rating in coverage.

While Tyler Lockett is an aging wide receiver, he was still one of the most efficient wide receivers in football last season. Last year he ranked ninth in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets) and receiving yards per game. Lockett will run about 59% of his routes on the perimeter against Surtain and Darby. When he slides inside, he’ll see brand new slot corner, K’Wuan Williams. Williams gave up an 80.2% catch rate and 96.4 passer rating last year.

Metcalf led the team with a 37% endzone target share and 35% red zone target share last year. With his high-value role, Metcalf is a volatile WR3 this week while Lockett slides into WR4 territory.

Tight Ends

Albert Okwuegbunam: Albert Okwuegbunam is the home run swing to take at tight end in Week 1. The athleticism and talent are real. He’s flashed both in limited capacities over the last two seasons raking fifth in yards per route run in each season. He’s also finished top-seven in YAC per reception and target per route rate in back-to-back seasons. The matchup is to die for in Week 1. Seattle was 26th in DVOA last year with the tenth-most receiving yards and fourth-most receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends. If Jeudy isn’t getting a hefty number of short area looks this week, it’ll be Okwuegbunam.

Noah Fant: Noah Fant will find it tough to log a third straight season as a top 12 fantasy tight end this year, as the third option in a Geno Smith led offense. Fant was the TE12 and TE11 in fantasy points per game over the last two years. Fant was 12th in yards per route run at the position last year (minimum 20 targets). Denver was 11th in DVOA last year, holding tight ends to the seventh-fewest receiving yards and third-fewest fantasy points per game. Fant is a risky TE2.

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