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Erickson’s Week 3 Rankings & Start/Sit Advice (2022 Fantasy Football)

Sep 22, 2022
Fantasy Football Week 3 Start/Sit Advice

Here are my fantasy football rankings for Week 3. You can find our expert consensus fantasy football rankings for the week here. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings, and analysis.

Be sure to check out my following notes on all the players/matchups this week from a season-long, DFS, player props, etc. perspective that shed light on “how the sausage is made” when it comes to finalizing my Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings.

Enjoy!

Check out all of our Week 3 fantasy football content >>

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

  • Steelers yards per pass attempt in 2021: 6.0 (30th). Steelers yards per pass attempt in 2022: 5.1 (32nd). Mitchell Trubisky isn’t the answer, but he’s doing his best Big Ben impersonation for WR Diontae Johnson.
  • Johnson – 31% target share through 2 weeks. Solid WR2.
  • PFF’s No.1 matchup based on the OL/DL matchup in the trenches for Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. Start them both. Bet the over on Chubb’s 16 rushing attempts.
  • Steelers run defense -8th in rushing yards allowed per game (102), 4th in receiving yards allowed per game to RBs (58).
  • Hunt: 15 touches for 74 yards in Week 2. RB27 without scoring any TDs. Bet the OVER on Hunt’s combined rushing/receiving yards. He’s averaged 72 offensive yards in his two games played this season on Prizepicks.com — use promo code PR-REQ653D.
  • In Week 2, Najee Harris played 71% of the snaps and totaled 20 touches for 99 yards while healthy. He only played in 2 games while 100% healthy last season with a sub-75% snap share. Without elite volume on Harris’ side, I’d be looking to try and move the Steelers RB1 — even at an ADP loss. Because things could get worse if the injury is reaggregated and he is unable to maintain a heavy workload. His offensive environment also provides him no favors.
  • Chase Claypool‘s usage can’t get any better. But he’s just the No. 3 target on a bad offense that is seeing no high-value targets. Not a great matchup in the slot. Greg Newsome II strong slot CB.
  • George Pickens – high-end route participation, but no targets in sight (9% target share). But do like him in single-game Showdown as the Browns have allowed over 100 yards to No. 2 WRs – Robbie Anderson and Garrett Wilson on the perimeter – with Denzel Ward locking down the No. 1.
  • Pat Freiermuth – continues to be an elite fantasy TE. 24% target share through 2 weeks, third-best at the position. Two top-10 finishes to open the season.
  • Browns TE David Njoku ran a route on 81% of dropbacks (94% snap rate) in Week 2 and saw two RZ targets. Overall his 5 targets (19% target share) are a step in the right direction for a TE available on most waiver wires.
  • Amari Cooper – Steelers have allowed 3 different WRs to go over 95 yards. As the favorite to lead the team in targets…he’s on the fantasy WR3 radar.
  • Deeper plays: Harrison Bryant (53% route participation, 4 targets back-to-back weeks, top-10 in weighted opportunity). David Bell took over as WR3 in Week 2 over Anthony Schwartz. RB Jaylen Warren would get extended looks if Harris gets banged up.
  • Also, bet under across the board on these passers. The weather for this game projects to be in the 20mph range. That dramatically influences the passing game. Fade these receivers.

Saints at Panthers

  • D.J. Moore‘s usage is hard to beat. Still running a route on 100% of dropbacks through two weeks with a 23% target share. DJM falls in the “he’s fine” WR2 fantasy category. Just keep in mind that he’s currently WR40 in PPR and WR54 expected fantasy points. He does have solid track record versus the Saints in his career.
  • Robbie Anderson was out-targeted by Shi Smith in Week 2, who has fully taken over the WR3 job in Carolina.
  • Chris Olave breakout game incoming? You bet. Panthers speed cornerback Donte Jackson exited Sunday’s Week 2 loss to the Giants due to a hamstring issue and underwent an MRI afterward. He’s considered day-to-day. Even if he suits up Olave has the chance to just cook the guy with a questionable hammy for a massive gain downfield in Week 3. The rookie posted a 33% target share and hung over 330 air yards in Week 2. Splash plays are coming for the Ohio State product. Stack his over prop on 38.5 receiving yards with Winston on Prizepicks.com
  • Carolina gives up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to the WR position. Michael Thomas might face the brute of Jaycee Horn and C.J. Henderson. Potential sell-high candidate with Thomas if you can get a haul back. WR9 in PPR points scored, WR19 in expected fantasy points. 24% target share through 2 weeks.
  • Jameis Winston a waiver wire QB option? Not likely. Carolina ranks third in fewest passing yards allowed per game albeit facing Browns/Giants helps boost that number. Still, third-lowest totaled game on the slate at 40.5 points. Although there should be some passing goodness to go around for the WRs involved considering both teams rank top-8 in expected pass play rate. 
  • Therefore, I like the over on Winston’s egregiously low passing yards prop (215.5) on Prizepicks.com — use promo code PR-REQ653D. His 826 passing air yards ranks No. 1 in the NFL and his expected passing yards (588) ranks fourth.

Texans at Bears

  • The Houston Texans cannot stop the run. No team has allowed more rushing yards than Houston through the first two weeks of the season (143.5 per game). They have missed a league-high 27 tackles.
  • Fire up David Montgomery despite my love for Khalil Hebert in an offense that wants to establish the run more than anything. Bears rank last in pass play rate and pass rate over expectation (-20%). Monty totaled 17 touches for 136 yards on a 77% opportunity share in Week 2. Still a pseudo bell-cow and a fringe fantasy RB1 in Week 3. Bet the OVER on Monty’s 63.5 rushing yards prop.
  • Start Dameon Pierce. Similar to the Texans, the Bears also cannot stop the run. No team has allowed more total rushing yards per game (189.5) or faced more rushing attempts. Needless to say, we should get a healthy amount of Pierce in a plus-matchup. He out-touched Rex Burkhead 16-2 in Week 2, while seizing 100% of the RB carries for 69 yards. Burkhead had zero 2nd-half touches.
  • Luckily Pierce didn’t convert the usage into crazy production, so he can still be had through trade after seeing a 62% snap share compared to his 29% snap share in Week 1 and dominant 89% opportunity share.
  • Nico Collins has some sleeper appeal. 24% target share and 37% air yards share in Week 2 to go along with two deep targets. Considering the Bears secondary has nobody worth much outside of Jaylon Johnson, Collins should see soft coverage to take advantage of. Although based on Johnson’s primary designation lining up as the team’s right-sided cornerback, Collins will run the most routes against him, as plays the most at LWR. Considering team’s aren’t throwing his way — league-low 5% target rate — it could just be a Brandin Cooks smash week with him lining up as the RWR and in the slot.
  • Brandin Cooks – 30% target share through two weeks (12th overall). But Davis Mills has been atrocious through two weeks. Ranks dead last in passing EPA (-17.9). Even so, the Texans WR1 is a must-start with targets coming his way against Bears rookie CB Kyler Gordon, the highest-targeted CB so far this season (29% target rate per route covered).
  • Bears DST rank second in pressure rate. Streamable DST.
  • Extremely difficult to trust any Bears pass-catchers in your lineups this week after how we have seen them play over the past two weeks. However, don’t drop Darnell Mooney (drop Cole Kmet). Because if the Bears throw more, he will smash. And they should because of how egregiously low it was last Sunday night (11 attempts).
  • The Texans are allowing the fourth-most receiving yards to WRs through the first two weeks of the season. Their defense also ranks 27th in passing yards allowed per game (285.5). So yes, I am taking the MORE on Justin Fields‘ 169.5 passing yards prop on Prizepicks.com because it’s an over correction to what we last saw the Bears do. Chicago’s faced two juggernaut defenses to start the year versus SF and GB with Houston offering much less resistance. Consider pairing Fields’ prop with Mooney’s over 43.5 receiving yards mark.
  • Mooney’s peripherals through two weeks: 95% route participation (16th) is still very strong. However, the fact that Equanimeous St. Brown leads the team in target share (27%) is concerning. Although, it’s more of a small sample size than anything with him having seven to Mooney’s five targets.

Chiefs at Colts

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has averaged 11 touches per game over the last two weeks. Yes, he’s been efficient on his opportunities against two extremely soft run defenses. But concerns about how he will fare without volume in tougher matchups. His opportunity share ranked 24th in Week 2.
  • He remains a sell-high option with both Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco seeing opportunities at the goal-line the last two weeks.
  • Not to mention, McKinnon is being involved as much if not more than CEH as a receiver out of the backfield. Same exact route participation in Week 2.
  • The Colts also rank second in run defense EPA, even without stud linebacker Shaq Leonard. Allowing just 2.8 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Leonard was a full participant in practice on Wednesday.
  • The Chiefs WR room is gross. New guy every single. Who will it be in Week 3? https://twitter.com/AndrewErickson_/status/1570786721335476225
  • Colts defense was roasted from the slot by Christian Kirk in Week 2: 6 catches for 117 yards.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster led the team in slot rate in Week 2 (58%) so I’d head back to the well even after a down game last Thursday night. Like his TD upside versus a Colts defense that ranks dead-last in RZ conversion rate allowed this season. 
  • Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. That is all. Could see Taylor more involved as a receiver after he ran a route on 63% of Matt Ryan‘s dropbacks in Week 2, despite the Colts trailing.
  • KC is allowing most catches per game to RBs this season.
  • Pittman posted a 27% target share in Week 1 while running a route on 98% of Matt Ryan‘s dropbacks. True alpha.
  • Fade the ancillary Colts WRs not-named Ashton Dulin. Parris Campbell had the opportunity to step up in Week 2, but finished with 0 catches despite running a route on 86% of dropbacks. Alec Pierce was in the 50% route participation range in Week 1 and also finished with 0 receiving yards. Pound the unders on Campbell (27.5-29.5) and Pierce (25.5/28.5) till they prove they can post actual yards.

Bills at Dolphins

  • The Josh Allen MVP train rolls on into South Beach. Allen has faced the lowest pressure rate this season (19%). And the Dolphins rank 30th in pressure rate generated (10.9%).
  • Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert had very different roles from a week ago. Mostert led the way with 14 touches to Edmonds’ 6, with both seeing equal route usage.
  • Neither should be trusted with much confidence in a pass-heavy Dolphins offense that is concentrated on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Not to mention the Bills have allowed the fewest rushing yards this season.
  • Still, if I have to start one of the Dolphins RBs, I’d lean towards Edmonds as the more featured receiver. Even after a down Week 2, he still ranks third on the team in target share. Figure he has to get more involved if Miami is chasing points against an unstoppable Bills offense. Still, a negative game script doesn’t foreshadow large rushing production from Edmonds, so I’d go LESS on his 34.5 rushing yards prop on Prizepicks.com/Underdog Fantasy. 
  • Devin Singletary saw solid usage from an on-field standpoint on Monday night – 65% route participation and snap share – but he simply was not getting the ball (8 touches, 10 opportunities).
  • Considering rookie James Cook only totaled one touch in the 1st half, I wouldn’t go chasing his counting stats he racked up when the starters had already left the game in a massive blowout. Instead, buy low on Singletary’s usage as the clear-cut RB1 in the Bills backfield. He earned the lone goal-line carry versus the Titans, but couldn’t punch it in.
  • Even without Gabriel Davis in the lineup, Dawson Knox saw underwhelming usage in Week 2. He ran a route on just 60% of Josh Allen‘s dropbacks and posted a 13% target share.
  • Through two games he has just a 10% target share – same as Foster Moreau and Ryan Griffin – 63% route participation and a porous 14% target rate per route run. He’s TD-or-bust.
  • Buffalo Bills are dealing with injuries in their secondary — something that Tua Tagovailoa took full advantage of in Week 2. Starting safety Micah Hyde and cornerback Dane Jackson both did not practice on Thursday.

Game 5 – Lions at Vikings

  • QB streamer of the week: Jared Goff. He’s currently the QB9 in both expected and actual fantasy points per game (22.0) this season. The Lions have the 8th-highest implied team total in a projected shootout versus the Minnesota Vikings (53.5 projected total).
  • D’Andre Swift – on a 51% snap share pitch count – totaled just 7 touches in Week 2. Still posted 87 yards and a one TD. Also ran a route on 57% of dropbacks and commanded a 15% target share. Because he’s #good. Expect him to shred versus a reeling Vikings defense that is allowing 5.2 yards per carry to RBs.
  • If there was ever a time to strike a trade for Dalvin Cook, this time is now. The Lions have allowed a league-high 27.8 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. They have allowed 4 different RBs to score against them.
  • With a positive game script in hand, Cook should smash in Week 3. His usage was still solid in Week 2 even with a low-touch total of 10: 62% route participation and six targets (13% target share) in Week 2.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown is the TRUTH. 34% target share (4th) and three red-zone scores through 2 weeks.
  • However, he’s not the only Lions WR you should consider this week. D.J. Chark Jr. actually tied ASB in air yards share (29%) and leads the team in that mark (35%, 211 total air yards). But Goff missed him on two deep throws in Week 2.
  • For DFS tournaments and as a high-FLEX option, Chark is your guy. He’s a nearly every-down player (88% route participation) and obviously can take advantage of a leaky Vikings secondary that ranks fourth in passing yards allowed per game.
  • From a usage standpoint, there’s no reason to get away from T.J. Hockenson if he is your starting tight end. He’s just one of five TEs with at least a 20% target share.
  • Justin Jefferson disappointed in Week 2, but still posted an elite 27% target share and 38% air yards share. He was also targeted thrice in the red zone in Week 2, but came down with zero receptions. Don’t expect that to be the norm week-over-week. Through two weeks he is still over the 30% target share mark.
  • Jefferson’s TD upside is especially high this week versus a Lions defense that ranks second-worst in RZ-to-TD conversion rate.
  • Tight end Irv Smith Jr. saw his route participation increase from 42% to 60% in Week 2 with an 18% target share to boot (8 targets). Firmly on the TE streaming radar ahead of Week 3 after finishing with the 3rd-highest air yards share at TE in Week 2 (26%).

Ravens at Patriots

  • Rhamondre Stevenson was buried on the Week 1 depth chart, playing just 25% of the snaps. However, he saw just one fewer touch than Damien Harris and looked explosive with the ball in his hands. With little to no playmakers in the Pats’ offense in Week 2, Stevenson’s role increased to a 62% snap share because he ran 15 more routes (25 vs 10) than Harris. His route participation was 61% – a top-10 mark on the week.
  • Not a game that many expect to see fireworks in…but both QBs have passed for a boatload of air yards this season. Lamar Jackson ranks third in air yards (674) and Mac Jones ranks 7th (606).
  • The Ravens aren’t using their RBs. Kenyan Drake saw just 6 touches for 8 yards. Avoid this backfield, until we see them committee back to the ground game.
  • Rashod Bateman hasn’t been getting elite treatment – 72% route participation, 21% target share – but he’s commanding targets at a high rate through 2 weeks (26% target rate per route run) in a much pass-happier Ravens offense than many expected.
  • Would be slightly concerned if J.K. Dobbins returns that Baltimore could dial back the passing, making Bateman a probable bust candidate should he not break off another long TD.
  • We know the Patriots are going to have to throw against the Baltimore Ravens. And so far this year they have allowed a receiving TD to a TE for two straight weeks. Seems like a get-right spot for Hunter Henry to find the end zone.

Bengals at Jets

  • Both teams rank top-6 in pass-play rate and expected pass rate.
  • Jets rookie WR Garrett Wilson. All in. 77% route participation in Week 2, equal to Corey Davis. Despite him missing a few snaps after suffering a slight back injury. The former Ohio State Buckeye has the most red-zone targets in the NFL through two weeks in addition to a team-leading 23% target share. He’s already gone over his receiving prop line (45.5) twice this season. Week 3 will make it thrice. His 31% target rate per route run ranks 8th among all receivers that have hit at least a 65% route participation this season. 
  • Although there are serious concerns for Elijah Moore. 5th in targets in Week 1 and tied for 3rd in targets in Week 2 (5 targets, 11% target rate per route run). Rest of season…I want Wilson.
  • Moore has just a 12% target share through 2 games…identical to the likes of Sammy Watkins, Mack Hollins and Austin Hooper. Woof. His target rate per route run (12%) ranks 5th-worst among WRs that have run a route on at least 90% of dropbacks this season. The group include: Moore, Mack Hollins, Jahan Dotson, Allen Robinson and George Pickens.
  • Joe Burrow‘s been under constant pressure the past two weeks, taking a league-high 13 sacks. However, it’s just the sack totals that are large as his pressure rate (31%) ranks in the middle of the pack.
  • Eitherway, I’d expect Burrow and the 0-2 Bengals to right the ship in Week 3 versus the Jets.
  • New York’s pass defense ranks 29th in EPA on pass defense and 27th in pressure rate.
  • Ja’Marr Chase ranks second in the NFL in red-zone targets, but he’s caught just one for a TD. Expect that to change rather quickly as the Jets have allowed 2 receiving TDs per game to opposing WRs. He’s one of just 3 WRs to have a run a route on 100% of his team’s dropbacks this season.
  • Stream Hayden Hurst. 20% target share in Week 2, 18% through two weeks. The former Falcon is emerging as a bigger No. 3 threat in the passing game over Tyler Boyd. 15 targets in the last two games.
  • Bengals own the sixth-highest implied team total (25 points). Great for Joe Mixon.
  • Cincy’s RB1 didn’t score for a second straight week, which may have some fantasy managers frustrated. Let them be. And take full advantage. Because for a second straight week, Mixon played 73% or more of the team’s offensive snaps to go along with 22 touches. And that’s despite the Bengals trailing throughout. His lack of receiving and 3rd-down work was way overblown this offseason. Buy him while the consensus is low on a 0-2 Bengals squad. Major bounce back appeal in Week 3. No. 2 advantage per PFF’s OL/DL matchup in the trenches.
  • Breece Hall and Michael Carter split carries (7 each) in Week 2 despite Carter playing a much higher snap share (61% versus 27%). But Carter out-targeted the rookie 5-to-1 while running a route on 53% of Joe Flacco‘s dropbacks.
  • Hall’s overall touches remain low, but there’s no denying that if he continues to produce yardage and scores, the volume will follow suit. The talented rookie ranks top-5 in yards after contact per attempt through 2 weeks. Buy low on Hall. View both guys as RB3s in Week 3.

Raiders at Titans

  • Treylon Burks needs to be on all rosters. His route participation skyrocketed in Week 2 (73%) after a 37% route participation in Week 1. He maintained a high target share for a second straight week (27%) and looks to be en route to becoming the no doubt WR1 in the Titans offense.
  • His 22% target share and 28% air yards share leads the Titans this season. And that’s despite him running just 30 routes through two games. His 37% target rate per route run No.1 among all WRs with at least 10 targets.
  • Josh Jacobs got nearly all the carries (19) to Zamir White (1) in Week 2. No. 1 opportunity share in Week 2 among RBs (95%). But the usage just resulted in 69 scoreless yards and one catch. Continues to be a low upside option. Sell high after a multi-TD game.
  • The last two times Derrick Henry has totaled fewer than 16 carries, the following week he has averaged over 200 rushing yards.
  • Simply put, if he is low-owned in DFS…you just play him. The Raiders defense did just allow Darrel Williams to average north of 7 yards per carry in Week 2. Keep tabs on the availability of Raiders linebacker Denzel Perryman to bolster the case further for the Big Dog. He missed last week with an ankle injury and logged a DNP on Wednesday.
  • Keep pounding Robert Woods receiving prop unders. 2-for-2 so far this season, with the veteran looking nothing like his former self less than a full year removed from a torn ACL injury. Just 7 targets through two games and a grand total of 52 receiving yards.

Eagles at Commanders

  • Terry McLaurin is currently the WR61 in points per game, 32nd in points scored (13.0) through 2 weeks. Just a 14% target share on Washington’s offense – identical to Antonio Gibson.
  • Curtis Samuel (24% target share) and Jahan Dotson (12% target share) are presenting real target issues for TMC. Only reason he hasn’t totally tanked is due to his team-leading 26% air yards share. But every other metric from a usage standpoint suggests that Samuel will continue to be Washington’s most productive fantasy WR as long as he remains healthy.
  • Also concerned about the matchup for McLaurin (82% out-wide snap rate) versus Philly’s tougher perimeter cornerbacks in James Bradberry and Darius Slay. Lean towards the under on McLaurin’s 57.5 receiving yards prop. Same with Dotson and his 41.5 receiving yards prop just based on his low target share thus far in 2022. 
  • Samuel has led the Commanders in targets in back-to-back weeks, while hitting a season-high route participation in Week 2 (89%). Hold onto him and more importantly, keep starting him. Only Cooper Kupp has more combined carries and targets than Samuel – who has 25 in just two games. He’s the Washington WR I still want to bet the over on. Because 45.5 receiving yards is just disrespectful. 
  • Logan Thomas‘ route participation didn’t change much from Week 1 to Week 2 (57% vs 58%), so I’d be bearish rolling him out as TE1 this week. A 12% target share is nothing to write home about and his usage is lacking behind many other fringe tight end options.
  • Even after containing the Vikings rushing attack in Week 2, the Eagles still rank second-worst in run defense EPA.
  • Antonio Gibson has the capacity to put up a big game, albeit if the Eagles don’t first jump out to a massive lead first. Even so, AG has goal-line duties locked down and still posted a solid 62% opportunity share in Week 2 – 15th among the league’s running backs.
  • Carson Wentz has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy football as the QB5 through the first two weeks of the season (27.3 points per game). However, there’s no denying he has benefitted greatly from a soft opening schedule against the Jaguars and Lions. The Eagles matchup in Week 3 presents a much tougher challenge for Wentz to overcome. Their pass defense is top-5 in EPA and second in yards per attempt allowed (5.3). They’ve also faced some decent passing offense thus far between the Lions and Vikings. Ergo, I am betting the under on Wentz’s 253.5 passing yards prop on Prizepicks.com, if not the better number on Underdog (257.5).
  • Darius Slay is PFF’s No. 1 graded CB. Between him, James Bradberry and Avonte Maddox, the Eagles boast three of PFF’s top-24 highest-graded CBs through 2 weeks.
  • Miles Sanders continues to produce running behind an elite OL and that should not change in Week 3. Washington is allowing 6.8 yards per carry to opposing RBs in 2022. Sanders earned a 69% opportunity share in Week 2, totaling 20 touches for 86 yards. His route participation was abysmal – 34% tied with Kenneth Gainwell – but he continues to deliver with rushing production behind a top-tier blocking unit. Bet the OVER on Sanders’ 60.5 rushing yards prop, a number he has surpassed by a wide margin in back-to-back weeks (96, 80). 
  • DeVonta Smith came back to life in Week 2 running a route on 100% of Jalen Hurts‘ dropbacks while commanding a 23% target share. He’s going to be mostly inconsistent week-to-week, but he’s worth the upside as fantasy WR3/FLEX play in high-scoring environments.
  • The same case can be made for tight end Dallas Goedert. Route participation is tied for No. 1 (89%), but 17% target share ranks 10th – tied with other TEs like Kyle Pitts, Tyler Conklin, Zach Ertz, Juwan Johnson and Gerald Everett.

Jaguars at Chargers

  • Buy Trevor Lawrence. The fantasy stats haven’t been there (QB15 in points per game), but the peripheral numbers say otherwise. He ranks 12th in expected fantasy points per game (21.5) fractional points behind Justin Herbert.
  • And from a real-life football perspective, the Jaguars QB ranks 5th in passing EPA.
  • James Robinson totaled 25 touches for 78 yards with a score in Week 2, more than doubling the workload of No. 2 RB Travis Etienne Jr. (12 touches and 3 catches for 53 yards). J-Rob ran more routes and graced a 63% snap share. Stock up. All 64 of his rushing yards came after contact. He’s the clear-cut RB1 in this offense and needs to be started versus an exploitable Chargers run defense. They are allowing nearly 5.8 yards per carry to opposing RBs and the most yards per attempt before contact. Easy bet on the “MORE” prop bet for Robinson’s 47.5 rushing yards line. Way too low.
  • The Jaguars have held both Antonio Gibson and Jonathan Taylor to fewer than 60 yards on the ground. Austin Ekeler has yet to surpass 40 rushing yards in his first two games this season, despite averaging 14 carries per game. LA’s OL is not opening up holes for Ekeler, as they rank 29th in yards created before contact. Bet the under on his 57.5 Underdog rushing prop. 
  • Evan Engram owns a 19% target share through two weeks – the 6th-highest at the tight end position. With a 9th-ranked route participation also in his arsenal he’s a strong fill-in option for any TE-needy teams against the Chargers. His 27% target share in Week 2 ranked second-highest at the position. In Travis Kelce‘s “down” game last week versus LA, he still finished TE15.

Rams at Cardinals

  • Allen Robinson was heavily involved again from a playing time standpoint for the Rams in Week 2, posting a 97% route participation rate. He converted his routes into 5 targets and 4 catches for 43 yards. A-Rob scored once and another was removed because of a timeout.
  • There was a clear effort to get him the ball in the red zone, but I’m still concerned that he posted just a 14% target share and target rate per route run, which ranked inside the bottom-5 among WRs with at least 5 targets in Week 2.
  • He’s got TD upside in a high-powered Rams offense, but I’d just leverage that as you sell him high after a scoring week. Especially with him drawing coverage from the Cardinals top cornerback, Byron Murphy, in Week 3.
  • Cam Akers was a BUY last week and remains one heading into Week 3. Led the team in carries (15) and RB opportunities (18) after Darrell Henderson Jr. earned the bell-cow usage in Week 1. Both guys each saw 3 red-zone carries with Hendo coming away with the TD.
  • Akers’ Week 2 62% opportunity share (15th) was on par with Antonio Gibson/Javonte Williams despite being out-snapped 56% versus 43%.
  • I expect Akers to be dialed back-in as the 1A runner in this backfield making him the Rams RB I prefer to start in Week 3. Arizona’s defense has been a sieve versus opposing RBs allowing the fourth-most fantasy points and 4.6 yards per carry.
  • Marquise Brown has been frankly disappointing. All the opportunity in the world to command a high target share in the Cardinals offense sans DeAndre Hopkins, but he’s sitting at just 20%. Brown is the WR15 in expected fantasy points, but just WR30 in actual scoring. Greg Dortch has scored more fantasy points. Brown’s a back-end fantasy WR2 until he proves he can step up in a struggling Cardinals offense that has looked extremely dysfunctional through the first two weeks.
  • TD equity should be coming for both Zach Ertz and Tyler Higbee based on the sheer red-zone target volume they are seeing, in addition to their elite roles – top-10 in route participation – at the tight end position.
  • Higbee ranks second in tight end target share (26%) and 4th in route participation after two weeks. In a full-time role last week, Ertz ran a route on 92% of Kyler Murray‘s dropbacks and earned a 23% target share.

Falcons at Seahawks

  • Rookie WR Drake London – 5th in WOPR (weighted opportunity) after two weeks. Behind only A.J. Brown, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams.
  • His target share after two weeks – 35% – ranks third. Expect the rookie to continue posting elite fantasy numbers in a plus-matchup versus the Seattle Seahawks. Their pass defense ranks 31st in EPA. Buy high and bet the over on his 52.5 receiving yards prop. 
  • That makes Marcus Mariota a legitimate streamer for those looking to combat the loss of Trey Lance (like me). He’s averaged 44 rushing yards and finished no worse than QB18 in his first two starts as a Dirty Bird.
  • Seattle’s horrible pass defense also sets the stage for the Week 3 Kyle Pitts breakout.
  • Pitts has been non-existent in the Falcons offense through two weeks, but the fact that London has been so productive, suggests this offense under Mariota can support a viable fantasy weapon. Buy low on Pitts and his 91% route participation from Week 2.
  • He saw his slot snap rate increase to over 50% last week, which forecasts him seeing more opportunities from the inside versus Seattle’s weakest cornerback, rookie CB Coby Bryant. He’s allowed a perfect passer rating when targeted this season.
  • Cordarelle Patterson‘s usage was not great in Week 2. He ran a route on just 41% of dropbacks. Patterson also split carries with rookie Tyler Allgeier and saw just one target. The Week 1 production where he saw 25 touches were never going to keep up. He saw just 11 total opportunities versus the Rams.
  • Seattle backfield: 3-headed RB committee on a bad offense. Rashaad Penny recgorded just six carries with Kenneth Walker (3 targets) back in the lineup. Travis Homer played the most snaps in Week 2. No thanks

    https://twitter.com/AndrewErickson_/status/1571853818891059201

 

  • Tyler Lockett runs about 50% of his snaps from the slot, and that has been an area of weakness for the Falcons. Cooper Kupp and Jarvis Landry devastated Atlanta from the inside of the field in back-to-back weeks.
  • So we could see a repeat performance from Week 2 when Lockett went for over 100 yards on nine receptions. So far through 2022, he leads Seattle in target share (26%) and air yards share (45%), with Geno Smith under center.
  • Lockett being Smith’s favorite target is actually a continuation of what transpired in the games Smith started last season.
  • DK Metcalf – WR64 in back-to-back weeks. Woof. Bench him and bet the under on his 52.5 receiving yards prop. Hasn’t crested 40 receiving yards yet this season with Geno at QB. He has 80 air yards through two weeks. Less than Darnell Mooney (86). Mooney has 5 targets this season.

Packers at Buccaneers

  • Buy Leonard Fournette. The Packers: second-most rushing yards allowed per game (143) through the 1st two weeks of the season. And the Buccaneers showed that amid all their injuries they are willing to go full-on operation ground and pound with Fournette. Through two weeks they have posted a negative pass play rate over expectation.
  • Lombardi Lenny benefited the most from the new offensive philosophy, totaling a week-high 26 touches in Week 2 on an 87% snap share. Through 2 games, Fournette is RB7 in expected fantasy points versus RB18 in actual points. Bet the over on Fournette’s 69.5 rushing yards prop. 
  • A.J. Dillon led the team in targets (6) not Aaron Jones (5) in Week 1. Dillon also out-touched Jones 15 to 8…continuing the usage trend from last season. Jones’ production will be heavily reliant on him as a receiver out of the backfield. My advice would be to sell Jones after his spiked week in production and buy Dillon before the market truly realizes he is the traditional RB1 in the Packers offense, with goal-line duties in hand.
  • In Week 2 snaps were 50/50 again with Dillon, but the younger back had more carries (18 vs 15) and the same number of targets (3) – resulting in a slightly higher opportunity share in the Green Bay offense.
  • Bet the under on Aaron Rodgers‘ passing yards prop. Among QBs that have started and completed 2 full games this season, the future Hall-of-fame QB ranks 31st in passing air yards (329) only ahead of Geno Smith (306) and Justin Fields (283).
  • Russell Gage led the Buccaneers in route participation (80%) but saw just six targets (18% target share). He’s a floor play at best with Mike Evans suspended for Week 3.
  • Bet the UNDER with the promo code AERICKSON474 on Tom Brady‘s passing yards prop on Underdog Fantasy (259.5). TB12 hasn’t passed for more than 212 yards in his first two games this season. Without a fully healthy OL or offensive pass-catchers, it’s easy to fade Brady.

49ers at Broncos

  • There’s been a lot of turnover in the 49ers offense through 2 weeks, with all the injuries that the team has sustained from their backfield to the QB position. But the one constant has been Brandon Aiyuk, operating as the WR1 in the passing game. He led the team in route runs in Week 1 and led the team in target share with Jimmy G under center in Week 2 (33% target share).
  • He should be able to take advantage of a banged-up Broncos secondary that could be without star CB Patrick Surtain.
  • In addition to Jeff Wilson‘s lone goal-line carry, he was also targeted twice inside the 20-yard line. Alas, he was vultured in the rushing department on more than one occasion to quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and fullback Kyle Juszczyk.
  • But even without scoring, Wilson totaled 20 touches and that makes him a weekly RB2 option. Because he won’t always be left out at the goal-line – 5 carries inside the 10-yard line last two weeks with zero scores – and the 49ers are down another RB after Tyrion Davis-Price suffered an ankle sprain.
  • The 49ers RB has scored the 3rd-most fantasy points under expectation. RB33 in total points, RB17 in expected points. Due for positive regression.
  • Everything Javonte Williams truthers could have desired continued in Week 2. His snaps increased (65% vs 58%), and he also led the team in carries (15) over Melvin Gordon (10) – unlike in Week 1.
  • The second-year back also added 4 targets to Gordon’s one target, with Williams running a route on 57% of dropbacks. He also saw the team’s lone RB goal-line carry.
  • If the gap in usage continues to go in Williams’ favor, you’ll be glad you traded for him now versus later. Might be tougher after a two-TD performance, which could come sooner rather than later based on his 5 scoreless red-zone targets over the last 2 weeks.
  • Courtland Sutton balled out with Jerry Jeudy out of the lineup with a whopping 39% target share and 50% air yards share. Just wait until Sutton cashes in on his red-zone targets. He’s 0-4 on converting them to TDs through 2 weeks with 3 coming in Week 2 alone. That won’t sustain, especially if Jeudy misses more time who logged a DNP on Thursday. 49ers have allowed a completion on over 50% of deep passes they have faced this season (4/7) and Sutton ranks 14th in aDOT (15.4). He should see plenty of 49ers CB Charvarius Ward who’s FACED an average depth of target in coverage of 14 yards, which ranks 13th-highest in the NFL.

Cowboys at Giants

  • Saquon Barkley didn’t have a monster game like in Week 1, but still had MONSTER usage that included 24 touches for 88 yards and an elite 79% routes run per dropback rate. He dominated the Giants backfield for a second straight week with an 89% opportunity share. I’d be going after him in trades this week. Dallas ranks fifth in yards allowed before contact per attempt, so Barkley should find running room on the ground. 
  • Sterling Shepard – 31% target share (10 targets) to lead the Giants offense in Week 2. David Sills led the team in routes run (91%). Richie James Jr. played just 42% of the snaps, but caught 5 balls for 51 yards on 6 targets.
  • James leads the Giants in target rate per route run (24%).
  • It’s really hard to get excited about any Giants pass-catcher if we are being honest. They are seeing virtually no high-value targets. QB Daniel Jones ranks 30th in air yards (160.5) and 26th in expected passing yards per game (197.5). I’d be shooting for the under on Jones’ 200.5 passing yards prop against a stout Dallas Cowboys defense that is sure to give him problems. He has the second-worst disadvantage when he drops back to throw per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart. Big D ranks second in pressure rate and third in sack conversion.
  • Third fastest time to throw in Week 2? Cooper Rush. So yeah, the Tony Pollard targets shouldn’t be going away anytime soon.
  • Pollard’s receiving usage was salivating in Week 2. The Cowboys explosive runner out-targeted Ezekiel Elliott 7-to-2, while doubling his total yardage output. His 54% target rate per route run and 23% target share suggest that his new backup QB loves targeting Pollard. And that trend could continue should Dalton Schultz miss anytime with his knee injury.
  • CeeDee Lamb -37% target share with Cooper Rush in Week 2. Volume calls for WR2 start status in a soft matchup.
  • Noah Brown – a strong option in deeper formats. 89% route participation, 19% target share and 68-plus receiving yards in back-to-back games.
  • Ezekiel Elliot has finished outside the top-40 RBs in back-to-back weeks.as the standing RB48. His expected fantasy-point total is RB38 and RB39 in expected points per game.
  • He has scored just twice in 12 games played without Dak Prescott. And he continues to lose work in the passing game to Pollard. His TD-or-bust playing for an offense with the second-lowest implied team total on the slate.
  • The appeal? The Giants allowed 80-plus rushing yards to Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry to start the year at just under 5.0 yards per clip.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings

 

2022 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR (TM) – Expert Consensus Rankings

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