Matthew Freedman’s Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings & Start/Sit Advice (2022)
Here are my fantasy football rankings for Week 4 along with players that I like this week. You can find our expert consensus fantasy football rankings for the week here. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings, and analysis.
- Pat Fitzmaurice’s Weekly Rankings
- Andrew Erickson’s Weekly Rankings
- Derek Brown’s Weekly Rankings
- Joe Pisapia’s Weekly Rankings
Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
Marcus Mariota (ATL) vs. CLE: The Falcons are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) thanks largely to the overperformance of their offense, which has scored 26, 27 and 27 points through three weeks. And the Browns are beyond banged up on defense.
- All-Pro EDGE Myles Garrett (neck) played through an injury in Week 3 and then was involved in a car accident on Monday.
- EDGE Chase Winovich (hamstring), CB Greedy Williams (hamstring) and LB Anthony Walker (leg) are all on IR.
- EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (ankle), DT Taven Bryan (hamstring), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (groin) and S Ronnie Harrison (hamstring) all missed either all or part of Week 3 with injuries.
This unit might not resemble itself in Week 4, and Mariota has an elevated floor, given his 25-92-2 rushing through three games. Among all quarterbacks with three starts, Mariota is No. 5 with his 17% rushing production rate (per our Fantasy Football Points Distribution Report).
Jared Goff (DET) vs. SEA: Due to his game-managing skill set (7.1 AY/A) and scrambling aversion (6-15-0 rushing), Goff has a depressed floor/ceiling combination in most matchups — but he has an edge against the Seahawks and their secondary in our unit power rankings.
|Rank||Quarterback||Offense||Opp Defense||Defense Rank||Secondary Rank||QB-Def Edge||QB-Sec Edge|
The Seahawks defense is No. 32 in dropback EPA per play (0.439), and the Lions have a slate-high implied total of 28 points in our Week 4 DFS Cheat Sheet.
Jacoby Brissett (CLE) at ATL: Needless to say, Brissett is not “good.” With that out of the way, I’ll point out that he’s No. 8 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.127), and the Falcons defense is No. 31 in dropback success rate (56.9%, SR). He’s not good, but this week Brissett probably won’t be bad.
Jamaal Williams (DET) vs. SEA: No. 1 RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle) might miss Week 4, so Williams could have an expanded role in the offense, especially as a big home favorite (-6 at PointsBet). Williams is No. 1 in the league with eight carries inside the 10-yard line (per our Red Zone Stats Report), and his scoring prowess this year has been unrivaled.
Jamaal Williams has more rush TD this season (4) than
— StatMuse (@statmuse) September 25, 2022
The Seahawks defense is No. 31 in adjusted line yards (5.10), and the Lions offensive line has a massive edge in their matchup, per our unit power rankings.
|Rank||Offensive Line||Opp DL||DL Rank||Edge|
A.J. Dillon (GB) vs. NE: I like both No. 1 RB Aaron Jones and Dillon in this spot. Dillon has 15-plus opportunities in every game this year, and the Patriots defense is No. 31 in both rush EPA per play (0.114) and rush SR (50.8%). With LT David Bakhtiari’s Week 3 return, the Packers finally have their full offensive line healthy, and they could straight-up bully the Patriots in Week 4.
Dameon Pierce (HOU) vs. LAC: After splitting carries with veteran Rex Burkhead in Week 1, Pierce dominantly outcarried him (35 to 3) in Weeks 2-3 and is locked in as the early-down thumper. Burkhead is still the default receiving back (16 to 4 in targets), but the Chargers — with all their injuries — might struggle to force the Texans into a pass-heavy game script, and their defense is No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (23.5 FPPG).
Jeff Wilson (SF) vs. LAR: No. 1 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee, IR) is out, as are third-round rookie RB Tyrion Davis-Price (ankle) and running QB Trey Lance (ankle, IR). Starting in place of Mitchell, Wilson is 30-159-0 rushing and 5-50-0 receiving on five targets over the past two weeks, and in his 12 career games with 15-plus opportunities Wilson has averaged 16.7 FPPG. Under HC Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 8-3 ATS against the Rams.
Check out my Week 4 early betting breakdown on Rams at 49ers.
Kareem Hunt (CLE) at ATL: Even with No. 1 RB Nick Chubb dominating opponents, Hunt in every game has managed to earn 15-16 opportunities, which he has leveraged into 205 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns backs have an undeniable matchup edge in our unit power rankings.
|RANK||RBS||OPP DEFENSE||DL RANK||LBS RANK||RB-DL EDGE||RB-LB EDGE|
Both Chubb and Hunt can go off in Week 4.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) at GB: Without QB Mac Jones (ankle), the Patriots could lean more on the running game early in Week 4, but as big underdogs they might eventually be forced to throw. Either way, that works for Stevenson, who last week played ahead of teammate Damien Harris in snaps (41-25), carries (12-11) and routes (25-11, per PFF).
Rhamondre Stevenson stepped into an RB1 utilization profile in Week 3, per PFF data 😤😤😤
54% rushing atts
64% route participation
16% target share
60% short yardage
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 26, 2022
The Packers defense is No. 32 in rush DVOA (14.0%) and adjusted line yards (5.36).
Khalil Herbert (CHI) at NYG: No. 1 RB David Montgomery (knee, ankle) exited Week 3 early, but the early reports indicate that he has a real chance to play this week.
David Montgomery is going to be day to day according to Matt Eberflus. He said there are a “couple things going on” with his lower leg injury but said he’s “good” right now.
— Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) September 25, 2022
If, though, Montgomery doesn’t play, then Herbert will be a top-12 back in my rankings. He went off with 169 yards and two touchdowns on 22 opportunities last week as the in-game fill-in, and last year he had 388 yards and a touchdown on 78 carries and 10 targets in four games while playing in Montgomery’s place. He has lead back ability, and the Giants are No. 29 in rush EPA per play (0.079).
Treylon Burks (TEN) at IND: Despite ranking No. 3 on the Titans with 57 routes and No. 4 with 60 pass play snaps, Burks is No. 1 on the team with 13 targets and No. 2 with 115 yards receiving. His 95.0% route per snap rate and 8.8 yards per target speak to his potential. The Colts defense is No. 29 in dropback SR (52.1%).
Romeo Doubs (GB) vs. NE: Last week, in the absence of WRs Sammy Watkins (hamstring, IR) and Christian Watson (hamstring), the rookie Doubs had a breakout 8-73-1 receiving performance on eight targets with an 89% snap rate against the Buccaneers, who have the No. 1 secondary in our unit power rankings.
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) September 26, 2022
He could have similar usage this week in a much easier matchup against the Patriots.
Greg Dortch (ARI) at CAR: Amazingly, Dortch through three weeks has been the No. 2 pass catcher for the Cardinals with 20-198-1 receiving on 23 targets. WR Rondale Moore (hamstring) will likely send Dortch back to the bench when he returns — but he missed every practice last week: He doesn’t seem close to returning. And Dortch could see extra targets this week with WR A.J. Green (knee) expected to be out. As the team’s primary slot receiver, Dortch might have the best matchup of all the pass catchers against CB Myles Hartsfield, who has allowed a 73.8% catch rate for his career.
DeVante Parker (NE) at GB: In the absence of No. 1 WR Jakobi Meyers (knee), Parker last week had 5-156-0 receiving on 10 targets. Meyers is uncertain to play this week, the Packers are No. 32 in pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (45.8%) and No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (groin) is dealing with an injury. As big road underdogs, the Patriots could be forced into a pass-heavy game script.
Julio Jones (TB) vs. KC: No. 1 WR Mike Evans will return from suspension this week, but No. 2 WR Chris Godwin (hamstring, knee) might still be out, so if Jones (knee) is able to play he could see some extra usage. That’s a big “if,” but …
The Bucs will have Mike Evans back from suspension this week. Todd Bowles said he expects Julio Jones to return too. He said it’s still too early to tell on Chris Godwin and Donovan Smith.
— JennaLaineESPN (@JennaLaineESPN) September 26, 2022
… I’m ever hopeful when it comes to Jones. In Week 1 he had a nice 3-69-0 receiving on five targets (as well as 2-17-0 rushing), and since his age-31 season (2020) Jones has averaged 10.5 yards per target. Yes, Jones is fragile — but when he’s on the field he still bangs.
Richie James (NYG) vs. CHI: No. 1 WR Kadarius Toney (hamstring) missed last week. No. 2 WR Sterling Shepard (knee, IR) suffered a season-ending injury on Monday Night Football. No. 3 WR Kenny Golladay (bad) is a nonentity. Slot WR Wan’Dale Robinson (knee) hasn’t played since Week 1. As a result, James has a livable 14-146-0 receiving on 17 targets in three games. For his career, James has a strong 11.0 yards per target, so he at least has some theoretical upside. He’s a desperation play — but sometimes the only option is the best option.
Josh Reynolds (DET) vs. SEA: Since his midseason addition to the Lions last year, Reynolds has been at least a fantasy WR2 in 30% of his games.
He’s a boom/bust player, and in any given week he’s likely to bust — but what matters most is that he actually has the upside to go off, and this week he might actually do it: The Seahawks are N0. 28 in dropback SR (51.9%).
Tyler Conklin (NYJ) at PIT: Conklin is No. 1 at the position with 134 routes.
Notable 2022 TE routes per @PFF:
1. Tyler Conklin (134)
2. Zach Ertz
3. Hayden Hurst
4. Travis Kelce
5. Darren Waller
6. Tyler Higbee
7. Dawson Knox
8. Dallas Goedert
9. Evan Engram
10. Gerald Everett
11. Logan Thomas
12. T.J. Hockenson
13. Mark Andrews
20. Kyle Pitts (75)
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 27, 2022
And he’s No. 1 among Jets pass catchers with 209 snaps and No. 2 with 134 routes and 24 targets. His 18-140-1 receiving stat line doesn’t make me hate myself.
David Njoku (CLE) at ATL: After disappointing in Weeks 1-2 with 4-39-0 receiving on six targets, Njoku went off in Week 3 with 9-89-1 receiving on 10 targets. He’s No. 1 among Browns pass catchers with 197 snaps and No. 2 with 16 targets and 13-128-1 receiving. The Falcons defense is No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (17.2 FPPG). There’s no way this ends well.
Juwan Johnson (NO) vs. MIN (London): Ugh. Johnson had just one target last week, but he has 13 on the season and is actually No. 4 at the position with 70.5 AirYAC per game. WRs Michael Thomas (foot), Jarvis Landry (ankle) and Tre’Quan Smith (concussion) were all forced from Week 3 with injuries, so he could see extra usage against the Vikings, who are No. 28 in pass DVOA against tight ends (29.3%).
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