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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 4 (2022 Fantasy Football)

by Jamie Calandro | Featured Writer
Sep 28, 2022
Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota has too high of a floor/ceiling to have such a low price.

For the second straight week, I tinkered my way out of some serious money in DFS, but there were also a lot of chalk busts this week as well, so the hope is for greener pastures in Week 4! As usual, we’re starting the week here looking for some pricing “errors” on DraftKings to exploit. A lot of times, this comes from the Sunday/Monday night games, as pricing is released beforehand, but there are other players who have some really curious tags this week. As always, be sure to follow me on Twitter at @jac3600!

Quarterback

Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL) ($5,600) vs CLE

Mariota’s price tag has remained stagnant in the mid-5000s on DraftKings for the entire season, despite the fact that he’s averaging 18.3 DK PPG and is currently the QB13 in all of fantasy football. Mariota has to cut back on the turnovers, but his dual-threat ability gives him a floor/ceiling combo well beyond his price tag. He’s ninth in fantasy points per dropback and also leads all QBs in red zone carries. Against Cleveland, who has allowed the 11th most FPPG to QBs and could possibly be missing Myles Garrett, there is a ton of value to unlock at $5,600, and he’s a solid pick in both cash and GPP play.

Running Backs

Jamaal Williams (RB – DET) ($6,100) vs SEA

In the wake of D’Andre Swift‘s injury, DraftKings attempted to price up Williams, but they didn’t do it enough. Swift is the current RB5 in PPR, but Williams is the RB8 despite Swift’s successes. He leads the NFL in both red-zone carries and carries within the 10-yard line, and he’s already parlayed that into four rushing touchdowns. This week’s matchup against Seattle is great, as they’ve allowed the fifth most FPPG to RBs and don’t have Jamal Adams anymore this year.

Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) ($5,600) vs LAC

I was skeptical about Pierce’s involvement this early in the season, but it’s pretty clear they’re committed to giving him the lion’s share right now, and his price on DK does not reflect this. Pierce has 38 touches over the past two games and currently ranks tenth in the NFL in carries and fourth in RZ carries (11). The Chargers are currently tied with Seattle for the fifth most FPPG allowed to RBs, so Pierce can hit value even if he’s not involved as much in the passing game.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL) ($6,700) vs WAS

Dak might return, but frankly, it doesn’t matter who Lamb’s QB is, as his volume is as predictable as anything in the NFL. Lamb has received 11, 12, and 12 targets in his first three games and is also fourth in the NFL in air yards. Washington allowed the most FPPG to WRs last year and is just as bad thus far this year, allowing the third most so far this season. Lamb is the classic “my price didn’t move because I played on Monday night” player for this week, so take advantage.

Kadarius Toney/Richie James (WRs – NYG) ($4,100/$4,000) vs CHI

This is a tough sell with how bad the WR room looked for the Giants on Monday night, but poor Sterling Shepard tore his ACL again and is now lost for the season. (Fantasy football aside, I truly feel for this guy.) As we move forward, though, the Giants have to throw to SOMEONE in his Shepard’s place, and the veteran is leaving behind an elite 28.9% target share. We’ll have to follow the news as the week progresses. Richie James has received six, six, and five targets in the first three weeks and would seem the safe PPR bet here, but it’s also interesting to see how Kadarius Toney will be utilized going forward as well. He’s dynamic with the football, and clearly, Kenny Golladay is not a part of this team going forward.

Tight Ends

David Njoku (TE – CLE) ($3,700) @ ATL

Njoku’s breakout game came last Thursday night, so DraftKings had plenty of time to adjust, but they simply didn’t, as Njoku’s price tag only rose by $300 to this week. Njoku went off for 9-89-1 on ten targets last week, but it’s fair to say you’re not “chasing” by using him this week as he’s fourth among TEs in snap share (91.2%) and seventh in target share (18.2%). The Falcons have allowed the second most FPPG to TEs this year.

Tyler Conklin (TE – NYJ) ($3600) @ PIT

Another alternative in this range is Conklin. He’s currently leading all TEs in routes run and is third in targets with 24. I prefer Njoku in this range as there’s a risk Conklin’s workload decreases with the more dynamic Zack Wilson under center, but the matchup is good as Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-most FPPG to opposing TEs.

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