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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 2 (2022 Fantasy Football)

NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 2 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Week one is in the books for the NFL season, and we saw some incredibly surprising things, particularly in the RB category where some favorite preseason sleepers were out-snapped and out-carried by their backfield-mates. Exploiting such things in DFS is the key to winning, especially when following pricing trends, so let’s see what we can come up with for the second full week, complete with 12 games of football!

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Quarterback

Trey Lance (QB – SF): $5700 vs SEA

The Lance truthers were in full panic mode after San Fran’s opening week loss to the Bears, but pump the brakes, people. That was absolute slop they were playing in, and Lance STILL managed to rush for 54 yards on 13 carries despite being completely ineffective in the passing game. This week the Niners are back at home against a Seahawks squad that just lost Jamal Adams. Take advantage of the $200 price dip on Lance in all formats.

Jared Goff (QB – DET): $5400 vs WAS

Goff’s price dipped $200 after last week despite posting a pretty serviceable 16.5 DK points against Philly (which was also a game dominated by Swift and Jamaal Williams). Detroit’s offensive line is one of the best in the NFL (sixth-ranked according to PFF), and Goff will get to face off against a Washington squad that allowed the most FPPG to opposing QBs last season (and will still be without Chase Young on the front line). Buy the price dip, especially in tournaments.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR) $8900 at NYG

CMC’s price has risen $400 since Week 1, but $8900 is still far too cheap for him as long as he’s healthy. As a Giants fan I was thrilled with the way they pulled out the victory in week one, and also how their front line handled Derrick Henry as well as a team can. However, they struggled in coverage all game to Dontrell Hilliard, lacking the end-to-end LB speed to keep up with Hilliard out of the backfield. Last year the Giants gave up the fifth most receptions to RBs, so McCaffrey should feast in this one even if he’s kept out of the end zone.

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN): $7200 vs DAL

Mixon’s price tag only moved $100 despite carrying the ball 27 times for 82 yards and catching seven of nine targets. Granted, the volume is inflated by a full overtime period, but don’t take too much away from his day. Mixon once again ran as a true bellcow, and it’s fair to think the target share can maintain if Tee Higgins (concussion) isn’t able to return for game two. Dallas allowed the third most FPPG to RBs last season, was just gashed for 127 yards by Leonard Fournette and now faces an increased likelihood of negative game scripts (which favor the opposing RB).

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans (WR – TB): $6800/Julio Jones (WR – TB): $5500 at NO

One of the more exploitable pricing plays in DFS is utilizing teams that just played Sunday or Monday night, because DraftKings releases their prices for next week before those games actually go. Evans and Julio’s prices have both remained static and both were heavily involved in week one for Tampa, and now should be tasked with even more work as running mate Chris Godwin looks like he’ll miss this game after tweaking his hamstring Sunday night. It’s a tough matchup against New Orleans, but condensed volume with Brady throwing you the ball is the key.

Greg Dortch (WR – ARI): $3500 at LV

Who?? One of the biggest surprises of week one was Dortch leading the Cardinals in targets, catches and receiving yards, and his price has only risen by $500 going into Week 2. Dortch filled in for Rondale Moore and played on 59 of a possible 65 snaps, trailing Marquise Brown by three and logging 11 more than veteran A.J. Green. At his price, Dortch really only needs to provide floor production in DraftKings’ PPR format, and he should continue to see heavy work until the Arizona WR corps is back to full strength.

Tight End

Darren Waller (TE – LV): $5600 vs ARI

Waller’s 4-79-0 line is fine on paper, but it’s worth noting that he didn’t get involved until very late in the game as it was the Davante Adams show in Las Vegas (10-141-1 on 17 targets). Waller’s price tag has risen $200 since last week, and he faces an Arizona defense that allowed the fewest FPPG to opposing tight ends last year after allowing the second-fewest the season before. With Waller’s price increase and being (at best) the clear #2 in that passing game, I’m fading in DFS despite what Travis Kelce just did to this Arizona defense.


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