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No House Advantage Pick ‘Ems (NFL Week 3 2022)

by Nate Polvogt | @NatePolvogt | Featured Writer
Sep 24, 2022
Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson might not have the easiest time running in Week 3.

The recent explosion of online betting and new, inventive ways to play fantasy sports has most of our heads spinning. No House Advantage’s new app lets you stack over/under prop bets to win real money. I’ll be here weekly, giving you my favorite prop bet plays to help you build a winning stack.

Sunday Early Slate – 1 PM EST

  • Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts – CBS
  • Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots – FOX
  • New Orleans @ Carolina Panthers – FOX
  • Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears – CBS
  • Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins – CBS
  • Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings – FOX
  • Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets – CBS
  • Las Vegas Raiders @ Tennessee Titans – FOX
  • Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders – FOX

No House Advantage offers three options for their Pick ‘Ems contest on Sunday for the early 1 PM EST Slate. Entry fees range from $5 to $20. The following prop bet picks apply to all three contests.

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) – O/U 56.5 Rushing Yards

After a devastating loss to the Tua-led Miami Dolphins in Week 2, Lamar Jackson and company are looking to bounce back. The Ravens head to New England for a Week 3 contest against one of the stingiest run defenses in the league. The Patriots’ front has only allowed 156 yards rushing, tied for their fourth-lowest total in the league with the Denver Broncos. Second-year phenom, Pittsburgh RB Najee Harris, was unable to get going last week, managing 49 yards on 15 carries. In a Week 1 loss, they held the entire Miami backfield to 65 yards on the ground. The ravens will need to rely on Jackson’s arm rather than his legs this week, so I’m taking the under on this prop bet as a mid-priority pick.

Pick: Under 56.5

Carson Wentz (QB – WAS)O/U 0.5 Interceptions

Washington Commanders QB Carson Wentz has started the 2022 season better than expected. Through his team’s first two match-ups, Wentz has thrown 650 yards and seven touchdowns while completing 66 percent of his passes. However, he has also thrown three interceptions, including two in Week 1 against a suspect Jacksonville secondary. The Commanders are heading into a Week 3 divisional contest against a Philadelphia Eagles defense boasting a top-notch secondary; currently, they are the fourth highest-graded unit (77.0) in the league, per Wentz is bound to clean up the mistakes this season, but it won’t be this week. CB Darius Slay terrorized the Vikings QB last week in prime-time, and I expect more of the same in the game. I’m taking the over on this prop with confidence, slotting it in as a high-priority pick.

Pick: Over 0.5 INT

Baker Mayfield (QB – CAR) – O/U 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

So far in Carolina, the Baker Mayfield experiment has not gone well. The Panthers are sitting at 0-2, and Mayfield has been mediocre at best, having thrown for only 380 yards and two touchdowns. The Panthers’ offense has been chiefly a jumbled mess to this point, and it doesn’t show signs of improvement any time soon. This week, they face the New Orleans Saints, whose defense has only given up one passing touchdown so far in 2022; blanking the falcons QB Marcus Mariota and giving up one to Tom Brady. If Carolina wants to win this game, they must rely on RB Christian McCaffrey to get them in the endzone. Mayfield doesn’t have a reliable red zone target, and the ball is best kept on the ground against CB Marcus Lattimore. I’m taking the under on this prop bet and making it a mid-priority play.

Pick: Under 1.5 Passing TD

Davante Adams (WR – LV)O/U 86.5 Receiving Yards

In his Week 1 raiders debut, WR Davante Adams was electric, catching ten of his 17 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown. Week 2 saw the veteran pass-catcher held to two receptions for 12 yards and a touchdown. Now sitting at 0-2 in the toughest division in the NFL, the Raiders will need Adams to shake off last week’s underwhelming performance and get right in Week 3. That shouldn’t be a problem against the Tennessee Titans.

Last week against the Buffalo Bills, Tennessee’s defense allowed QB Josh Allen to connect with WR Stefon Diggs to catch 12 balls for 148 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, Las Vegas QB Derek Carr isn’t Allen, but he shouldn’t have to be this week. Adams is the gameplan against the Titans, with fellow WR Hunter Renfrow appearing hobbled in practice this week. This is an easy high priority over bet for me.

Pick: Over 86.5 Receiving Yards

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)O/U 259.5 Passing Yards

Unless you live in a cave, you know that Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa had a massive game against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2. When the dust settled after an electric comeback win in Baltimore, Tua had amassed 469 yards passing and six touchdowns. Four touchdowns and 199 of his passing yards came in a furious fourth-quarter comeback where the Dolphins erased a 21-point deficit. It was a heck of a performance by the third-year divisive QB, but he is unlikely to replicate it against a much more stout Buffalo defense. In a Week 1 match-up against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, the Bills held QB Matthew Stafford to a pedestrian 240 passing yards and limited Titans QB Ryan Tannehill to a paltry 117 yards in the air last week. Tagovailoa looks like he will be a force in this league, but a Week 3 contest against a Buffalo squad blowing through teams like a freight train is a bad match-up for any QB. So take the under on this prop confidently, and throw it up top as a high-priority play.

Pick: Under 259.5 Passing Yards

Mac Jones (QB – NE)O/U 251.5 Passing Yards

There may not be a more confusing offense in the NFL right now than in New England. The team doesn’t have an official offensive coordinator, and the man calling plays, assistant coach Matt Patricia, is a defensive coach by trade. Given the situation, QB Mac Jones has been effective as a game manager in two contests so far in 2022, but he hasn’t been flashy. Much in line with his rookie campaign in 2021, Jones is accurate but doesn’t have a big arm and doesn’t put up a ton of passing yards. Last season he averaged 223 passing yards per game. You might be tempted to take the over here with the Patriots facing a Dolphins defense that allowed Tua Tagolvialoa to air it out last week, but that game is not this game. New England will do everything possible to win this battle on the ground. I’m taking the under on this prop but keeping low priority in case things get out of hand in Charm City on Sunday.

Pick: Under 251.5 Passing Yards

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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.


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