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Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 5 (2022)

Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 5 (2022)

The game of fantasy football has become more complex over the past several years. While the game itself hasn’t changed much, the way to analyze stats and draw conclusions has become much more in-depth with the development of advanced stats.

One of those advanced stats is air yards. Why are air yards important? Because it helps differentiate the value of targets. Quick passes like screens and slants have a different value than downfield routes. Depending on what your league’s scoring is, it will make a difference in what you want from a fantasy player.

Receiving yards is a basic yet important stat for fantasy football players. Having receivers who catch plenty of short targets is valuable in PPR scoring. However, a receiver with consistent big-play ability downfield is equally valuable.

Air yards are not the golden ticket to winning your fantasy league. However, they are a useful tool to help you analyze the game. Let’s look at the top-10 performers at each position and the top-five underperformers.

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Stats via FantasyPros

The Top-10 Quarterbacks

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Pass Attempts

1) Geno Smith (SEA)

221

7.4

30

2) Jared Goff (DET)

220

5.6

39

3) Matt Ryan (IND)

214

5.8

37

4) Tom Brady (TB)

212

4.1

52

5) Justin Herbert (LAC)

197

5.1

39

6) Andy Dalton (NO)

189

6.8

28

7) Russell Wilson (DEN)

175

7

25

8) Jacoby Brissett (CLE)

170

4.9

35

9) Kirk Cousins (MIN)

168

4.4

38

10) Davis Mills (HOU)

163

4.7

35

With Jameis Winston unable to play in Week 4 because of various injuries, Andy Dalton got the start for New Orleans. Yet, the offense mostly remained the same despite the change at quarterback. Winston has averaged 229.3 air yards per game this season, while Dalton had 189 last week. Moreover, their aDOTs were somewhat similar, too (six for Winston, 6.8 for Dalton). Chris Olave had 65 air yards in Week 4, compared to 75.7 air yards per game over the first three weeks of the year. However, that has more to do with Michael Thomas not playing than Winston. Regardless of who is under center for the Saints, their offense should continue to push the ball downfield.

Despite Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark and D’Andre Swift sitting out against the Seahawks, Jared Goff still had 220 air yards. The veteran quarterback averaged 135 air yards per game over the first three games this season, never having more than 154 air yards in any game. Given the lack of weapons, it’s extremely impressive what Goff did last week. However, that is more because of the matchup than the quarterback’s talent. Expect Goff to regress closer to his 135 air yards per game average this week against the New England Patriots.

The Top-10 Wide Receivers

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Targets

1) DK Metcalf (SEA)

103

10.3

10

2) Tyreek Hill (MIA)

92

6.6

14

3) Darnell Mooney (CHI)

87

17.4

5

4) Mike Evans (TB)

86

8.6

10

5) Justin Jefferson (MIN)

85

6.5

13

6) Tyler Lockett (SEA)

80

10

8

7) George Pickens (PIT)

77

9.6

8

8) Allen Lazard (GB)

73

9.1

8

9) Alec Pierce (IND)

72

12

6

10) Marquise Brown (ARI)

70

6.4

11

It only took 3.5 games, but the Steelers finally made a change at quarterback, switching from Mitchell Trubisky to the rookie Kenny Pickett. In the Week 4 matchup, both quarterbacks had 13 pass attempts. However, Pickett had 83 air yards compared to 59 for Trubisky (a 28.9% difference). More importantly, we finally saw George Pickens get going on offense. His 77 air yards were the seventh-most among wide receivers last week. By comparison, Pickens had 63 air yards over the first three games of the season with Trubisky under center. Furthermore, he was the only Pittsburgh wide receiver with positive air yards in Week 4. The rookie’s breakout is about to happen.

When the Seahawks traded away Russell Wilson, everyone expected the downfield passing attack to struggle. Yet, DK Metcalf led the NFL in air yards last week while Lockett was sixth. More importantly, both players finished in the top-24 wide receivers in total air yards last season. This year they are both currently in the top 11. While the matchup against the Detroit Lions was fantasy friendly, both Seattle wide receivers should maintain their excellent downfield efficiency as long as Smith remains under center.

The Top-10 Tight Ends

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Targets

1) T.J. Hockenson (DET)

70

5.8

12

2) Pat Freiermuth (PIT)

61

6.8

9

3) Gerald Everett (LAC)

53

8.8

6

4) Travis Kelce (KC)

52

5.2

10

5) David Njoku (CLE)

44

6.3

7

6) Zach Ertz (ARI)

36

6

6

7) Dawson Knox (BUF)

33

5.5

6

8) Kylen Granson (IND)

32

8

4

9) Mo Alie-Cox (IND)

32

5.3

6

10) Will Dissly (SEA)

31

7.8

4

With all the missing weapons in Detroit, it’s not a surprise to see Hockenson at the top of the list with 70 air yards. However, it took him 12 targets to get there. Furthermore, his aDOT was lower than Eric Saubert, Parker Hesse and Ko Kieft, who combined for four total targets. Nonetheless, Hockenson’s aDOT was more than twice as high last week as it was over the first three weeks of the year (5.8-2.8).

It is frustrating to see two Indianapolis tight ends in the top 10 this week for everyone who spent a third-round pick on Michael Pittman. The third-year receiver had only 20 air yards last week on six targets. His 20 air yards were 12 less than Kylen Granson and Mo Alie-Cox and only five more the rookie tight end Jelani Woods. Hopefully, this is one week fluke, and Pittman can return to his 34.7 air yards per game average from the first three games of the season.

The Top Five Underperformers

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Targets

1) Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)

-7

-2.3

3

2) Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

-1

-0.2

6

3) John Bates (TE – WAS)

5

0.8

6

4) Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR)

28

2

14

5) Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)

55

2.9

19

What on Earth happened to Washington’s offense? Over the first two games of the year, the Commanders looked like a high-powered fantasy attack. Since then, they have struggled. Last week they had four players with six or more targets. All four had an aDOT under 1.9, with Terry McLaurin and John Bates failing to average a full yard per target. The Commanders had three players with 40 or more air yards in Week 2. Given their lack of success protecting Carson Wentz and pushing the ball downfield, it’s surprising that offensive coordinator Scott Turner still has a job.

The Rams looked awful on Monday night. Cooper Kupp led all wide receivers this week with 19 targets, while Tyker Higbee led all tight ends with 14. Yet, the duo combined for 83 air yards and a 2.5 aDOT. Yes, the Rams’ offensive line is banged-up, and Matthew Stafford got sacked seven times on Monday night, just like he got sacked seven times in Week 1. However, the veteran quarterback has been sacked only twice in the other two games this season. If the Rams can fix their offensive line problems, Kupp and Higbee have massive PPR upside moving forward.

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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