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The Primer: Week 5 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

Oct 6, 2022

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After a one-week hiatus from the Primer, I’m back!

Last week was an endless cycle of Dayquil shots, hot showers to relieve COVID congestion, and sleep. I’m still working my way back to full strength, much like many fantasy rosters out there, after enduring another devastating round of injuries in Week 4 (heal quickly, Javonte Williams. You’re a king.)

Before we thwart our menacing league mates by reassembling our fantasy lineups into Week 5 Voltron, I have to give a quick shoutout. As soon as everyone at FantasyPros learned I was under the weather, they swooped in and picked up every piece of content off my plate so I could focus on resting and recovering. I won’t lie. I got choked up and shed a few tears.

Some work environments can be toxic, so when you find yourself working for a wonderful company, side by side with your friends daily and loving every minute of it, you cherish it.

That said, it’s time for Pat Fitzmaurice, Andrew Erickson, and myself to get you ready for Week 5. Enjoy the Primer.

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New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers

By: Derek Brown

Pace and playcalling notes

  • This game will be thin on raw play volume, with each team running slow run-based offenses. New York is 14th in neutral pace, but Green Bay is in their usual home as the NFL’s slowest team in close games. Each squad finds themselves inside the top 12 in neutral rushing rate (NYG fourth, GB 11th).

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones: Jones’ legs are propping up his fantasy value in a big way. Jones has been the equivalent of Justin Fields through four games, but he is scoring enough points rushing to elevate his paltry passing stock. He’s averaged only 26.3 pass attempts and 157.8 passing yards with a 3:2 passing touchdown to interception ratio. Those numbers won’t make you inclined to look his way as a streamer or QB2 option, but his rushing stats will. Jones is fourth in rushing attempts and third in rushing yards among quarterbacks with a 33% red zone rushing share. The Green Bay pass defense isn’t as imposing as you might think from their ninth ranking in pass defense DVOA. While also stating that we haven’t seen a fully healthy Jaire Alexander in 2022. Green Bay is 16th in yards per attempt and 19th in passing touchdown rate. Jones should be able to do enough with his arm to give him a ceiling if his legs comply. Green Bay has allowed the highest rushing success rate in the NFL. Jones is a QB2 with top 12 upside this week.

Update: Tyrod Taylor has been ruled out (concussion). Jones is off the injury report and good to go for this game.

Aaron Rodgers: With a remade receiver room, Rodgers has started slow, but over the last two weeks, he’s seen his fantasy stock increase as his pass catchers have improved. Since Week 3, he’s the QB13 in fantasy. His real-life talent never disappeared as he’s the fourth-highest graded passer per PFF while also ranking eighth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). The Giants have the 13th-lowest success rate and 15th-lowest EPA per dropback allowed, but we also need to understand the quarterbacks they’ve faced. Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush, and Justin Fields don’t exactly strike fear in anyone’s hearts. Rodgers should have no issues carving them up, especially if they attempt to blitz him (they will). The Giants are third in blitz rate this year. Rodgers has eaten the blitz for breakfast, ranking first in PFF passing grade, fifth in yards per attempt, and fourth in blitzed passer rating (minimum ten blitzed dropbacks). Rodgers is a strong QB1 in Week 5.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: Barkley has been a revelation in fantasy football this year. He’s one of the few true bellows left. He’s played at least 83% of the snaps in each game, averaging 24.8 touches and 142.6 total yards. He’s ninth in yards after contact per attempt, eighth in breakaway rate and fifth in missed tackles forced (minimum ten carries). He’s a top-three running back option against a Packer run defense that’s allowed the second-highest rushing success rate while also ranking seventh in explosive run rate and fifth in rushing EPA.

Weeks 1-4

Player % of Rushing attempts Target share Route Run % Red zone opportunities
Aaron Jones 42.5% 12.8% 58% 9
A.J. Dillon 50.4% 11.2% 45.5% 10

 

Aaron Jones: The Packers’ backfield is an even split on early downs and in the red zone. Jones still holds the upper hand in the route department. The biggest differentiator for Jones is that he’s one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. He’s averaged 15 touches turning them into 102.1 total yards per game. Jones ranks fourth in yards after contact per attempt and missed tackles forced while sitting with the third-highest elusive grade per PFF (minimum ten carries). Jones is an RB1 again in Week 5. The Giants have surrendered the ninth-highest rush EPA, tenth-highest explosive run rate, and rank 25th in adjusted line yards. He should smash again.

A.J. Dillon: Dillon is a low-end RB2 this week. He’s seen a tad more weekly volume than Jones with 16.6 touches per game, but he’s only mustered 70.1 total yards per contest. He hasn’t been nearly as productive on a per-touch basis this year. Among 57 running backs with at least 15 carries, he ranks 36th in yards after contact per attempt and 47th in PFF’s elusive rating. With a plus matchup this week, he should see an uptick in these categories.

Wide Receivers

Allen Lazard: Since his Week 2 return, Lazard has seen a 17.8% target share while running a route on 93.1% of Rodgers’ dropbacks. Over the last three games, he has led the team with six deep targets and is second in red zone targets to only Doubs (three vs. four). Lazard is likely to be shadowed by Adoree Jackson. Jackson has shadowed in three games this year, following Robert Woods, Robbie Anderson, and CeeDee Lamb on 65-91% of their routes. In shadow coverage, he’s allowed eight targets, six receptions, and 57 receiving yards (one score), with the bulk of that production coming from Lamb. Lazard could lose Jackson by moving into the slot. Lazard has played 36.7% of his snaps from the slot this year. He’s seen 35.3% of his target volume from the slot, with both of his touchdowns this year coming from the slot. In the slot, he’ll match up with Darnay Holmes, who allows a 50% catch rate and 64.3 passer rating. Lazard is a strong WR3 with upside this week if he can make the most of his targets away from Jackson.

Romeo Doubs: Doubs has been a full-time player over the last two games. He’s seen a 22.8% target share while earning a 94.5% route per dropback rate. He’s been the team’s red zone threat (leads the team with five red zone looks) and YAC guy. He has a 6.8 aDOT while ranking 12th in YAC per reception among all wideouts with at least ten targets this year. He’ll run about 83% of his routes on the perimeter. When he doesn’t see Jackson, he’ll get Fabian Moreau in coverage, which is likely most of the game if Jackson is in Lazard’s back pocket. Moreau has only seen eight targets in coverage this year, but last year he was a matchup to target with a 65.8% catch rate (seven touchdowns) and 116.3 passer rating surrendered.

NYG WRs: Until the Giants increase their passing rate, none of their wide receivers are playable in fantasy. New York has averaged a pitiful 27 passing attempts per game. Last week no receiver saw more than three targets or ran more than 14 routes. Volume is king in fantasy and Barkley is the only Giants player wearing a crown.

Update: No one should be playing him anyway, but Kenny Golladay has been ruled out. Kadarius Toney has also been ruled out with a new hamstring injury, so don’t expect him back anytime soon.

Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan has plateaued at a 61.1% route run rate over the last two games. While that’s playable if you’re looking for a streaming option, it isn’t good enough to consider Tonyan an every-week guy (yet). He’s seen a 12.8% target share and two red zone targets. The Giants are 22nd in DVOA against the position.

NYG Tight ends: Similar story here as with the receivers. There simply isn’t enough passing volume. The other issue with this position for the Giants is that they are splitting routes between Daniel Bellinger and Tanner Hudson, with neither player seeing higher than a 57% route run rate. That just won’t get it done for fantasy.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills

By: Derek Brown

Pace and playcalling notes

  • The Steelers lead the way here in neutral pace (12th) as Buffalo has been running at a league average clip (15th).
  • The Bills remain atop the neutral passing rate streets, ranking first. The Steelers come into this game sitting at 14th in neutral passing rate, but it’ll be interesting if they dial that back a shade with Kenny Pickett making his first NFL start.

Quarterbacks

Kenny Pickett: Picketts faces a staunch Bills’ pass defense in his first NFL start. Yeah, count me out on Pickett this week unless you have no other options in a deep 2QB league or dynasty format. The Bills have surrendered the second-lowest EPA per dropback while also holding opposing passers to the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and seventh-lowest passing touchdown rate. The Bills are 32nd in blitz rate, but their pass rush has created some noise, ranking 15th in pressure rate. Pickett should worry more about Buffalo’s superb zone defense than pass rushers in his face. Mitch Trubisky saw the eighth-lowest pressure rate despite ranking 13th in time to throw. Pickett should have a relatively clean pocket, but it’s still debatable what he can do with it this week.

Josh Allen: The Steelers’ secondary has been good this year, ranking 12th in pass defense DVOA, but this is another instance where we need to understand who they have faced so far. Pittsburgh has easily dealt with Zach Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, and Mac Jones. Yes, they also faced Joe Burrow, but this isn’t 2021 Burrow, as his offensive line was communicating like they were relaying play calls with two cans connected by a flimsy piece of string. Allen is matchup-proof. He’s the QB2 in fantasy behind only Lamar Jackson, ranking top-five in PFF passing grade, big-time throw rate, and adjusted completion rate. A top-three fantasy option every week.

Running Backs

Najee Harris: Harris is a volume-based RB2. Since Week 2, he’s averaged 18.7 touches turning it into 74.7 total yards per game. He’s RB28 in fantasy points per game despite ranking 13th in touches among running backs because he’s scored only two touchdowns in an offense previously led by Mitch Trubisky. Harris will need every bit of volume he can get against Buffalo. The Bills have been tough against running backs with the third-lowest rushing yards per game and ninth-lowest explosive run rate allowed. They are top-five in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. Harris’s ceiling as a receiver has been capped this year with only an 8.8% target share and a less than stellar 45.8% route run rate. He hasn’t sniffed higher than a 50% route run rate all year.

Weeks 3-4

Player % of Rushing attempts Target share Route Run % Red zone opportunities
Devin Singletary 43.5% 17.8% 64.9% 7
Zack Moss 15.2% 1.1% 8.1% 0
James Cook 2.2% 6.7% 8.1% 2

 

Devin Singletary: This is Singletary’s backfield. Over the last two weeks, he’s averaged 80.5% of the snaps with 16.5 touches and 93.5 total yards per week. He’s essentially been the Bills’ WR2 over this two-game span with a 17.8% target share. Last week his route run rate climbed to 78.6%, so cancel the James Cook breakout party invites. The Steelers have been a defense that opposing squads can run on as they have given up the ninth-most rushing yards per game and eighth-highest rush EPA. That’s been volume driven, though, as they have faced the most carries in the NFL. They have been tough on a per touch basis with the 11th-lowest rushing success rate and sixth-lowest explosive run rate allowed. Singletary has only averaged ten carries per game over his last two weeks, so the volume in that department won’t be on his side. He can still finish with a solid fantasy day through the air. Pittsburgh is 17th in DVOA, seeing the fifth-most running back targets. They have allowed the 12th-most receptions and 11th-most receiving yards to backs. Singletary is an RB2.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Johnson is still the clear leader of this passing attack. He’s seen elite usage with a 28.8% target share and 31.7% of the team’s air yards. This has amounted to the tenth-most targets among wide receivers. Sadly, all this volume has done nothing for Johnson, the WR43 in fantasy points per game being dragged down by Mitch Trubisky. We’ll see if Pickett can be any better in his rookie season, but he can’t be much worse for Johnson’s outlook. Johnson will run about 92% of his routes against Kaiir Elam and Dane Jackson as a volume-fueled WR3. Elam has allowed a 70% catch rate and 81.3 passer rating. Jackson has been even tougher with a 60% catch rate and 42.9 passer rating.

George Pickens: Yes, Pickens saw a 35.7% target share with Pickett under center last week. I’m not overreacting to a 14-pass attempt sample. Pickens is still likely the third option in this passing attack weekly. He’s handled a 16% target share with 28.1% of the team’s air yards as the field stretcher (17.0 aDOT). This isn’t exactly a role to get giddy over against a Buffalo secondary that’s seventh in DVOA against deep passing. He’ll run about 90% of his routes against Elam and Jackson. Pickens is a dart throw WR5.

Chase Claypool: You likely have better options than even remotely considering Claypool at this point. He’s seen a 16% target share with six targets in three of his four games. Sadly he hasn’t surpassed 40 receiving yards in any game, and the Week 1 rushing usage has dried up. His peripherals are nauseating, with 0.58 yards per route run and 0.8 YAC per reception. Don’t play Claypool. Fantasy can be painful enough. Don’t ask for the pain before kickoff even ensues this week.

Stefon Diggs: Even after a “down” game, Diggs remains the WR3 in fantasy. He’s garnered a 25% target share with 35.8% of the team’s air yards. He has the ninth-most targets per game in the Bills’ pass-happy scheme and is 20th in weighted opportunity (minimum five targets). He’ll run nearly 64% of his routes against Cameron Sutton and Levi Wallace this week. Sutton has allowed a 65.2% catch rate and 81.6 passer rating. His former teammate Wallace has given up a 57.9% catch rate and 76.0 passer rating. These matchups aren’t easy by any stretch, but Diggs is a matchup-proof WR1 every week. Temper expectations slightly, but he can still post a top 12 stat line any week.

Gabriel Davis: Davis is still dealing with the ankle issue, and it shows. Since his return, he’s seen a 10% target share and 16% air yard share with a minuscule 0.45 yards per route run. As long as Davis is determined to play through this injury, we must mute our expectations because, clearly, it’s affecting his performance. He’s a shaky WR3 with tough matchups. Davis will run about 90% of his routes against Sutton and Wallace.

Isaiah McKenzie: If McKenzie can clear concussion protocol for this week’s game, this could be his blow-up game. Jamison Crowder is now sidelined with a broken ankle. Working in tandem with Crowder from the slot, McKenzie has been regulated to a 53.9% route run rate. Despite that fact, he tied Diggs for the team lead with a 17.6% target share last week. He’s the WR38 in fantasy points per game. If McKenzie is good to go, he’ll run about 76% of his routes against Arthur Maulet. Maulet has allowed a 66.7% catch rate and 100.0 passer rating this season. In his career (121 targets), he’s given up a 71.1% catch rate and 100.8 passer rating. McKenzie could see nearly every down route rate as a solid WR3 with WR2 upside.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: I’ll own the L here. Freiermuth is a tight end that I was extremely low on entering the year and all he’s done is prove me wrong. He’s the TE6 in fantasy points per game, seeing strong (nearly elite) usage. He’s third among tight ends in target share (24%), sixth in receiving yards per game, fourth in weighted opportunity, and fifth in yards per route run (minimum five targets). The problem is Freiermuth has run into the tight end buzz saw this week. The Bills are a brick wall for tight ends. They are first in DVOA against the position with the third-fewest receptions and fourth-lowest receiving yards allowed. Freiermuth is a low-ceiling back-end TE1 this week. If you need upside this week, I won’t fault you for going the streamer route.

Dawson Knox:
*Editor’s Note: Knox has been ruled out for week 5*
Knox has also been banged up all season. The 2021 magic is gone. Knox has seen a 10.6% target share with a 63.4% route run rate and an abysmal 0.92 yards per route run. Knox is a mid-TE2 option this week. Pittsburgh is fourth in DVOA against the position allowing opposing tight ends to secure 62% of their targets.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns

By: Derek Brown

Pace and playcalling notes

  • While it won’t blow anyone out of their seats to learn that the Browns are 23rd in neutral pace, seeing the Chargers sitting at 21st should raise some eyebrows. This could be an after-effect of Justin Herbert‘s early season injury, so while it’s notable, we need some subsequent weeks with the star quarterback with a healthier set of ribs to see if this trend holds.
  • With play calling, it’s a classic push and pull of the Chargers ranking 12th in neutral passing rate against the Browns’ top ten (sixth) neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: Herbert, with a healthier set of ribs, should have no problems slicing this Browns secondary like Gordon Ramsey with a new set of cutlery. Cleveland’s secondary has been underwhelming, ranking 18th in pass defense DVOA, 16th in EPA per drop back, and 12th in yards per attempt allowed. With a battered defensive front, they are 24th in pressure rate. Herbert’s line might be downgraded due to injuries, but he’s faced the 11th-lowest pressure rate. Cleveland won’t be able to contain Herbert if he gets clean pockets. From a cozy pocket, Herbert is sixth in yards per attempt and first in passer rating (minimum 25 pressured dropbacks). Herbert is a rock solid QB1 with huge upside this week.

Jacoby Brissett: Brissett isn’t someone you ever want to be relying on in 1QB leagues, but in Superflex and 2QB formats, you could do much worse with your second quarterback spot. Brissett is the QB17 in fantasy, ranking ninth in PFF passing grade and 16th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). The Chargers, to this point, have been a middling pass defense. While they have held opposing signal callers with the 12th-lowest EPA per dropback, they are also 16th in yards per attempt with the third-highest passing touchdown rate allowed. Brissett should post a solid stat line here, which is better news for anyone looking to start his pass catchers.

Running Backs

Weeks 1-3

Player % of Rushing attempts Route Run % % of RZ rushing attempts
Austin Ekeler 50% 51.9% 25%

 

Weeks 4

Player % of Rushing attempts Route Run % % of RZ rushing attempts
Austin Ekeler 56.5% 60% 100%

 

Austin Ekeler: At first glance, Ekeler’s Week 4 usage doesn’t appear to be any different from his first three games. In Weeks 1-3, he averaged 17.7 touches, 73 total yards, and 56% of the snaps played. In Week 4, he turned 19 touches into 109 total yards with 59% of the snaps played. Yeah, not much different on the surface. When we dig deeper, we find he owned more of the early down work, ran more routes per drop back, and resecured all of the red zone work. If this trend continues, this is huge moving forward for both his floor and ceiling. Ekeler is locked back in as a top-five running back option against a porous Cleveland defense. The Browns have allowed the sixth-highest rushing success rate, third-highest rush EPA, and 12th-highest explosive run rate. If Ekeler isn’t chewing them up on the ground, he’ll find room to operate through the air against a team that’s 22nd in DVOA against receiving backs.

Weeks 1-4

Player % of Rushing attempts Target share Route Run % Red zone opportunities
Nick Chubb 54.7% 6.5% 38.8% 15
Kareem Hunt 31.1% 10.6% 48.2% 16

 

Nick Chubb: Chubb has been in his bag this year. As the RB2 in fantasy, he has been a near lock for 20-plus touches and over 100 rushing yards per game. He’s seen at least 20 touches in every game and hit the century mark on the ground in three of four games. He’s averaged 21.8 touches and 124.1 total yards per game. He remains arguably the most talented rusher of the football in the NFL. He ranks ninth in yards after contact per attempt, first in missed tackles forced (the closest RB behind him has ten less MTF), and fourth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Chubb could break Week 5 against this pitiful Bolts’ run defense. Over the last three weeks, they have bled out the third-highest explosive run rate, tenth-highest rush EPA, and the third-most rushing yards per game. Chubb is a top-three back.

BETTLE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Bettle. For Week 5, Nick Chubb is our Bettle Matchup of the Week.

Beettle, Play the Field

Kareem Hunt: As the team has leaned heavier on Chubb through the first four games, Hunt has seen his work scaled back just a tad with 14.3 touches and 68.3 total yards per game. He has still been a solid back with his efficiency numbers and for us in fantasy as the RB21. Hunt is 25th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). He could easily find his way inside the top 20 backs this week against a Chargers defense that’s been gashed on the ground and via the passing game with backs. The Bolts are 31st in DVOA against receiving backs allowing the fourth-most receptions and seventh-most receiving yards. Hunt is a low-end RB2/high-end RB3.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: Allen has been ruled out.

Mike Williams: Williams has balanced two dud games with two superb 10-plus targets and 100-plus receiving yards outings. He’s the WR20 with a 21.8% target share since Allen has been sidelined with a 42.9% team air yard share. The Browns have utilized zone coverage on 57-62% of the snaps with their outside corners. The concern for Williams this week is his struggles against zone this season. His yards per route run and usage splits against man and zone have been huge. Williams has seen 62.1% of his target volume against man with 3.92 yards per route run, while only 27.6% of his targets have come against zone with 0.63 yards per route run. Williams will run about 83% of his routes against Denzel Ward and Marin Emerson. Ward has allowed a 57.9% catch rate and a 90.7 passer rating. Emerson has surrendered a 60% catch rate and a 90.0 passer rating. Williams is a volatile WR2. Update: Jacob Gibbs from CBS, with the deep data pull, that should make us all feel better about Williams against zone. He was a plus receiver against zone coverage last year as well. Among all wideouts with at least 15 targets, Williams was 20th in yards per route run and eighth in passer rating when targeted against zone. With only four games under our belts, Williams’ struggles this year against zone could simply be small sample variance.

Joshua Palmer: Over the last three games, Palmer has disappeared with a 14.5% target share (16.2% team air yard share) as the WR41 in fantasy. His 1.32 yards per route run isn’t surprising as he’s largely been “just a guy” to this point in his career. Palmer is a flex play this week who’ll run about 66% of his routes against Ward and Emerson. Update: Palmer was limited on Wednesday and Thursday before getting in a full practice Friday. He’s been listed as questionable.

Amari Cooper: Just when it felt like we could trust Cooper after back-to-back solid outings he lays an egg. Even after Cooper’s four target and nine receiving yard debacle he remains the WR24 in fantasy with a 25.2% target share and 38.4% of the team’s air yards. Cooper is in line for a nice bounceback game running against Asante Samuel Jr. and J.C. Jackson for about 76% of his routes. Samuel has allowed a 65.6% catch rate and 90.6 passer rating. Jackson hasn’t resembled anything close to the corner the Chargers thought they were signing with a 90.9% catch rate and 149.1 passer rating allowed. Cooper is a low-end WR2.

Donovan Peoples-Jones: Peoples-Jones has even more enigmatic than Cooper. He has two games this season with nine or more targets with 60 or more receiving yards. He has four combined targets in the other two weeks with ten receiving yards. This has amounted to a 19.5% target share with 26.1% of the team’s air yards. He’s second among the Browns’ receivers with three red zone looks (Cooper, four). Peoples-Jones is a low-end flex play that’ll run about 70% of his routes against Samuel Jr. and Jackson.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: Everett has been a revelation for fantasy managers starving for tight-end production. He’s the TE6 that has seen a 16.4% target share (13th) while seeing a 67.1% route run rate. The routes could be better, but Everett has been immensely productive with this volume ranking ninth in yards per route run (minimum five targets). He faces a Browns’ defense that’s 22nd in DVOA, allowing the second-highest yards per reception (14.0) to tight ends.

David Njoku: Njoku SZN is here. The breakout has begun, and there’s no putting the lid back on this Pringles can. Njoku is seventh in target share among tight ends while ranking eighth in yards per route run and seventh in YAC per reception. He’s the TE11 overall this season and the TE3 over the last two weeks. The Chargers look tough against tight ends, ranking fifth in DVOA, but Njoku is quietly in a good spot. Los Angeles is also ninth in YAC allowed, so expect Njoku’s YAC skills to get deployed here. This defense is 14th in fantasy points allowed to inline tight ends (Njoku 52.2% inline). Njoku is a top-ten tight end.

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