Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

By: Derek Brown

• MIN -7.5, O/U 44
• Bears vs. Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Kevin O’Connell continues to make good on offseason proclamations of an upbeat and pass-happy offense, with the Vikings sitting at fourth and sixth in neutral pace and passing rate.
• The Bears are 18th in neutral pace and first in neutral rushing rate. The Vikings’ struggling run defense will allow the Bears to run as much as their hearts desire in Week 5.

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields: It’s sad times at the Fields’ weekly truther meetings. I should know as we hold a weekly debriefing every Tuesday morning. You’re invited. I provide the donuts while you bring the coffee and Kleenexes. Fields is QB31 in fantasy scoring while ranking bottom three in PFF passing grade and adjusted completion rate. Until he shows signs of life in fantasy with improved passing volume or rushing, he’s a must-sit.

Kirk Cousins: The Bears’ pass defense hasn’t been the pushover many would categorize them as. Chicago is 15th in EPA and 17th in success rate per dropback allowed. They have yielded the ninth-lowest passing touchdown rate. Cousins is a low-end QB1 / high-end QB2 this week. As always, it comes down to Cousins versus pressure. Cousins will work his spectacular implosion magic if the Bears’ pass rush can get home. Chicago can make it happen in Week 5 thanks to their pass rush, which is second in pressure rate despite blitzing at the second-lowest mark in the league. Cousins has faced the ninth-highest pressure rate and folded when it gets home. He has the 14th-lowest yards per attempt and seventh-lowest adjusted completion rate when pressured (minimum 25 pressured dropbacks). With the Bears also unable to stop the run, this sets up as a week for Minnesota to lean on their ground game.

Running Backs

Weeks 4

khalil herbert should see more work whether david montgomery is healthy or not. kid can play #DaBears pic.twitter.com/wb0ufPthyI

— Ray G 🏁 (@RayGQue) September 27, 2022

Khalil Herbert: Last week Herbert operated as the clear lead back with 20 touches, 101 total yards, 77% of the snaps played, and all of the red zone rushing attempts. He finished as the RB26 last week despite not getting into the endzone. He’s still been one of the most explosive runners in the NFL, ranking seventh in yards after contact per attempt and 12th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). This week’s matchup against the swiss cheese run defense of the Vikings lands Herbert comfortably inside the top 15 RBs (assuming Montgomery is out). If Montgomery plays, Herbert is a low-end RB3. . Minnesota has been unable to stop running backs with the fourth-highest rush success, seventh-highest rush EPA, and sixth-highest explosive run rates allowed.

David Montgomery: Montgomery logged limited practices on Thursday and Friday. He’s been listed as questionable. I consider him closer to doubtful and unlikely to play. If he does suit up, I don’t foresee the Bears giving him the full workload, so he and Herbert would fall into the low-end RB3 range.

Weeks 4

Dalvin Cook: Cook still operated as the team’s clear lead option last week with 22 touches, 86 total yards, and 62% of the snaps played. His route run rate dipped some, but he still saw the lion’s share of rushing and red zone work. Cook has been hit or miss this year, even before the shoulder issue. He has two games with yards after contact per attempt over 3.0 while also logging a pair of games below 2.2 yards after contact per attempt. Despite his seven runs of ten or more yards, he’s only broken one run of 15-plus yards. His 5.7% breakaway rate is easily the lowest of his career. With all of that being said, this matchup against the Bears could be the magic cure-all elixir. Chicago has been horrendous against the run. They have the ninth-highest rush success rate, 12th-highest rush EPA, third-highest explosive run rate, and most rushing yards per game allowed after four weeks. Despite efficiency and injury concerns, Cook is an RB1 in a smash spot.

Alexander Mattison: Mattison might have luck boxed a touchdown last week, but 38% of snaps played with four touches and 18 total yards won’t cut it for fantasy lineups. He remains a high-end handcuff only.

Wide Receivers

Darnell Mooney: Last week Mooney turned his five targets into four receptions and 94 receiving yards. While the yardage total was nice, his volume prospects didn’t change. His four targets per game and zero end zone targets are too difficult to trust in any format as anything more than a dice roll flex play. If you’re willing to light your hair on fire and ride the lightning, it’s a good matchup to do so. Mooney will run about 61% of his routes from the slot against Chandon Sullivan. Sullivan has allowed an 88.2% catch rate and 130.1 passer rating.

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson has sandwiched two forgettable games between two legendary ones. Ah, volatility. Such is the way of the wide receiver. It happens even to the good ones. Jefferson is sixth in targets per game (10.5) with a 28.4% Target share and 36.5% air yard share. He’s the WR4 in fantasy, ranking 11th in weighted opportunity. Jefferson is an unquestioned WR1 weekly. He’ll see Jaylon Jones and Kindle Vildor on approximately 63% of his routes. Jones has allowed both targets in his coverage to be secured. Vildor has surrendered a 55.6% catch rate and 97.2 passer rating. I expect the Vikings to roll Jefferson into the slot occasionally, especially if Jaylon Johnson is back. Jefferson has seen 30% of his target volume from the slot. He leads the team in slot targets (12), securing 91.7% with a 146.2 passer rating when targeted. The move inside would be to take advantage of Chicago’s struggling slot corner Kyler Gordon. Gordon has allowed the highest yards per snap for any slot corner (minimum 20 coverage snaps) with a 158.0 passer rating.

Adam Thielen: Thielen is a solid WR3 target. He’s the WR33 in fantasy with an 18.9% Target share and 12.5% end zone Target share. Age is catching up with the dependable veteran as he only has one game this season above 1.6 yards per route run. He can still succeed at this stage, running about 64% of his routes against Jones and Vildor.

K.J. Osborn: Osborn is a matchup-based flex flier this week. Osborn has only seen a 10.8% Target share this year. He has one game where he’s finished with more than four targets and 30 receiving yards. Even with all this being said, there’s upside here with him running about 60% of his routes from the slot against Kyler Gordon.

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: Kmet is a streaming tight end option this week. His measly two targets per game are vomit-inducing, but tight ends have beaten Minnesota, and Kmet will be on the field a ton. Despite the lacking target volume, he’s still managed an 82.8% route run rate. The Vikings are 27th in DVOA against tight ends ranking tenth in receiving yards and yards per reception to tight ends. Kmet has lined up in the slot on 44.7% of his snaps. The Vikings have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends from the slot.

Irv Smith Jr.: Smith Jr. has only accounted for a 13.5% Target share with a 57.2% route run rate. He isn’t on the field enough to roll him out as anything more than a streamer when the matchup calls for it. That’s not this week. The Bears are 15th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the eighth-fewest receiving yards and 12th-fewest fantasy points to inline tight ends (Smith, 50.5% inline). Sit Smith this week.

Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots

By: Derek Brown

• NE -3, O/U 45.5
• Lions vs. Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Each of these teams has been run balanced. They rank seventh (NE) and 13th (DET) in neutral rushing rate.
• Where they differ is the pace of play. Detroit has run an upbeat operation ranking sixth in neutral pace while the Patriots continue to plod (27th).

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: Goff has been a stellar fantasy option to start the season as the QB5 in fantasy points per game. While he keeps outperforming our weekly expectations, this isn’t a week to buy in more. The Patriots are tenth in pass defense DVOA while also sporting the 12th-lowest success rate and 11th-lowest EPA per dropback allowed. New England is seventh in blitz rate. The blitz hasn’t been Goff’s friend. He ranks 24th in PFF passing grade (out of 30 quarterbacks with at least 25 blitzed dropbacks) and 25th in adjusted completion rate against the blitz. Goff is a high-end QB2.

Bailey Zappe: Detroit offers a nice matchup for the rookie making his first start. Zappe isn’t playable in fantasy (outside of desperate managers in 2QB/Superflex leagues), but tasty opposition should allow the Patriots to move the ball decently. Zappe was a check-down specialist last week with a 5.5 aDOT and zero big-time throws. Detroit is fourth in success rate and third in EPA per dropback allowed.

Running Backs

Weeks 4

Jamaal Williams: While Williams operated as the Lions’ primary back his snap rate only marginally budged from 45% to 50% in Week 4. Over the last two weeks Williams has averaged 21 touches and 108 as the RB3 in fantasy. Williams has been getting it done on the ground as his 5.4% Target share this year isn’t likely to save him if he flops on early downs. Luckily for Williams this is another cakewalk matchup on the ground for him to keep motoring along. The Patriots defense has been unable to slow down, stop, or curtail running back production. They have the second-highest rushing success rate, seventh-most rushing yards per game, and the eighth-highest explosive rush rate.

Craig Reynolds: Reynolds split the backup role behind Williams with Justin Jackson. Reynolds logged three touches (32% snaps), while Jackson saw four touches (12% snaps). Reynolds is a bench stash only.

Weeks 3-4

Damien Harris: Harris has led the way on early downs and has been the team’s preferred red zone back over the last two weeks. He’s averaged 16 touches and 65 total yards. While Harris isn’t a homerun hitter, that doesn’t mean he isn’t slippery in between the tackles. He ranks second in evaded tackles and juke rate. His touchdown equity has carried him to RB20 in fantasy with his ten red zone touches (13th). It pays to be the red zone back on a team that’s ninth in red zone rushing rate. If New England gets even average quarterback play, Harris could run wild on the Lions. Detroit walks into Week 5 with the fifth-highest rushing success rate, third-most rushing yards per game surrendered, and the fourth-highest explosive run rate allowed. Harris is a low-end RB2.

Rhamondre Stevenson: The Patriots’ bulldozing passing down back has finished as the RB42, RB8, and RB22 over the last three games since taking on a larger share of this backfield. Over that three-game span, he has averaged 14.7 touches and 80.3 total yards with a 14.9% Target share and a 58.7% route run rate. Stevenson has been one of the best runners in the NFL, ranking fifth in yards after contact per attempt and 13th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Outside of the split backfield situation, what’s capping his upside is his lack of involvement when the team gets near paydirt. He’s only seen four touches inside the 20-yard line until that changes or his pass game usage climbs higher; he’s an upside RB3.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown logged back-to-back DNPs to open the season before a limited practice on Friday, which has led to a questionable tag. This feels like Detroit should have slapped him with a doubtful tag, but I’m guessing Dan Campbell doesn’t want to give away that his top receiver is probably out again this week. If St. Brown is active, expect a full workload but lower your expectations of his effectiveness. He’d be a volatile WR2. This season he’s run about 66% of his routes from the slot, ranking tenth in yards per route run and 19th in PFF receiving grade (minimum ten targets). He’s seventh in Target share and ninth in targets per route run. He would match up against Miles Bryant, who has allowed a 70% catch rate and 105.2 passer rating.

D.J. Chark: Chark has been ruled out.

Josh Reynolds: Overall, Reynolds’ numbers don’t jump off the page as he has a 16.3% Target share with 23.2% of the team’s air yards this season, but he’s played a huge role for the Lions and in fantasy over the last two weeks. In Weeks 3 & 4, he soaked up a 22.7% Target share and a 33% air-yard share as the WR26 and WR9 in fantasy. Reynolds has been listed as questionable. With Chark out, St. Brown is banged up and unlikely to play. Reynolds is a solid flex if he suits up. He’ll run about 67% of his routes against Jack Jones and Jonathan Jones. Jack Jones has allowed a 54.5% catch rate and 42.2 passer rating in limited duty. Jonathan Jones has surrendered a 62.5% catch rate and 93.0 passer rating.

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers has been listed as questionable after limited practices all week. If he suits up, he’s a risky WR3 play with the injury worries. In Meyers’ two games played, he’s been excellent, though. He is 15th in yards per route run and 38th in PFF, receiving grade immediately ahead of Ja’Marr Chase and Courtland Sutton (minimum ten targets). He is also eighth in Target share and fifth in targets per route run. Those numbers are elite. He’s run 62% of his routes from the slot, which pits him against Mike Hughes. Hughes has been giving this year with an 80% catch rate and 133.3 passer rating in coverage.

DeVante Parker: Paker is the only Patriots wide receiver with above a 90% route run rate this season, as the unit has been a revolving door. Sadly that hasn’t helped Parker in the target department as he’s only managed a 13.7% Target share with a 27.5% team air yard share. Parker’s sad 1.61 yards per route run against man coverage this year won’t cut it against the Lions man heavy defense. Parker’s high route rate is better for his cardiac health than it is for your fantasy lineups.

Nelson Agholor: Agholor is an interesting out-of-the-woodwork flex dart this week. Last week he led the team with a 20% Target share and 41.2% air yard share. His route run rate was at 88%. Over the last two weeks, the Lions have utilized their corners in man coverage on 56-62% of their snaps. Agholor has been one of the best against man coverage after four weeks. He’s tenth in yards per route run against man coverage as PFF’s 14th highest graded receiver against man (minimum five man coverage targets). Agholor could see shadow coverage from Jeff Okudah this week. Okudah has shadowed three times this year, following DeVonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, and Justin Jefferson on 56-78% of their routes. He limited them to a 45.4% catch rate with five total receptions and 36 scoreless receiving yards. It’s a difficult assignment for Agholor, but he’s still worth considering in Week 5.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson: After last week’s monstrous blow-up game, Hockenson is the TE3 in fantasy. He’s tenth among tight ends in Target share and seventh in air yards. He ranks inside the top-seven tight ends in deep targets (two, seventh) and red zone targets (five, sixth). He’s also sixth in yards per route run. He could stack another juicy stat line this week against a Patriots defense that is among the worst in the league at covering tight ends. New England is 25th in DVOA, allowing the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

Hunter Henry: Henry is best viewed as a TE2 or deep league matchup-based streamer. Henry’s 7.7% Target share (36th) is disgusting. His usage this year has fallen off the map compared to last season. He has seen two red zone targets (20th) if we’re trying to paint a rosy picture for a touchdown or bust streamer type. Detroit has been giving to tight ends ranking 24th in DVOA with the sixth-most receptions (tied) and seventh-most receiving yards allowed.

Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints

By: Derek Brown

• NO -5.5, O/U 46
• Seahawks vs. Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• New Orleans has been a speedy team ranking 11th in neutral pace, while Seattle has been content to slug along (22nd) in close games.
• The passing volume could surprise in this game, especially if Jameis Winston suits up. Seattle is 13th in neutral passing rate while New Orleans was 11th in Weeks 1-3 with Winston under center. With Andy Dalton under center in Week 4, they ran the ball on 47.8% of their plays when the score was tight. Overall this season, that would be the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: Anyway, you slice it, Smith has been balling this year. He’s QB10 in fantasy as the second-highest graded passer per PFF with the fifth-highest yards per attempt. He’s eighth in big-time throws and first in adjusted completion rate. As good as he’s been, I still can’t budge him higher than a QB2 this week against a talented New Orleans secondary. The Saints are 13th in pass defense DVOA, top 13 in success rate and EPA per drop back and have given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Andy Dalton: Jameis Winston has been listed as doubtful, so it looks like it’ll be another week of the Dalton show. Dalton played surprisingly well last week. Among quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks, he’s third in PFF passing grade, second in aDOT, and he conjured up a 6.7% big-time throw rate which would rank first overall this season. Yes, it was one game, so I’m not crowning him a stud or Geno Smith of the south. Just giving him a hat tip for a solid game. Seattle offers him an opportunity to keep the good times rolling. The Seahawks are fifth in success rate and first in EPA per dropback. They have also surrendered the highest yards per attempt and eighth-highest passing touchdown rate. Dalton is a solid QB2 that could surprise in Week 5.

Running Backs

Week 4

Rashaad Penny: In last week’s massive 157-yard (18 touches) eruption, Penny matched his season-high with 69% of the snaps played. He was the unquestioned leader of the ground game. Chalk up Walker’s slight edge in red zone work to variance because the rest of the indicators point to Penny as the primary back. Penny has essentially picked up where he left off last year. He is first in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in breakaway rate, and tenth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Don’t expect the same type of output from Penny this week. The Saints have permitted the ninth-lowest fantasy points per game and rushing success rate. Backs haven’t been able to break off big runs either (13th-lowest explosive run rate). Penny is a good bet for 15-17 touches here, but with his value almost entirely tied to his rushing alone, he’s an RB3/flex play.

Kenneth Walker: Walker is coming off a season-high nine touches and 36% snap share. In a tough matchup and potential 6-8 touch workload, it’s impossible to get behind Walker even as a flex play. Walker has been listed as questionable with a shoulder issue.

Week 4

Alvin Kamara: Kamara practiced in a limited capacity all week and is listed as questionable, but from beat reports around the team, he’s expected to play. In the two games he’s played this season, he’s logged at least 64% of the snaps averaging 14.5 touches and 59.5 total yards while seeing a 15.5% Target share (fifth-best). Factoring the rib injury into his numbers, he has actually been effective, ranking 29th in PFF’s elusive rating with the eighth-highest breakaway rate (minimum 15 carries). The Seahawks are tenth in rush EPA with the fourth-most rushing yards allowed per game. They rank 28th or lower in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. Seattle is also 27th in DVOA against backs in the passing game with the fifth-most receptions and receiving yards surrendered. If Kamara plays, he’s a locked-in RB1.

Week 2

Mark Ingram: Last week without Kamara in the lineup, Ingram split almost evenly with newly departed Latavius Murray (signed by Denver). Ingram had the edge in the red zone, though. In the two games, he’s been the lead this year without Kamara, he’s averaged 12.5 touches and 52 total yards. Last week he played a season-high 48% of the team’s snaps. Ingram was stuck in a fantasy value-sapping four-way committee in Week 2. The increased snap rate could mean he is over an early-season ankle ailment. If Kamara misses, Ingram could see 15-plus touches against a beatable Seattle defense. Ingram might be nearing Frank Gore status, but he’s still quite effective. He’s 26th (out of 57) in yards after contact per attempt and 22nd in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). If Kamara sits, Ingram is an RB3 with RB2 upside. If Kamara is in, Ingram returns to must-sit status as a bench stash.

Wide Receivers

D.K. Metcalf: Chef Geno has breathed life back into Metcalf’s fantasy value. After two rough games to open the season, Metcalf has been the WR18 and WR7 over the last two weeks to climb to WR25 in fantasy points per game. During this time, we have seen Metcalf’s aDOT climb to a respectable 11.4. He now sports a 27.1% Target share (15th) and 37.4% air yard share (seventh). The high-value usage has also been there as he is fifth in deep targets and 14th in red zone targets among wide receivers. He’ll run about 83% of his routes against Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo. Lattimore has allowed a 55.6% catch rate and 75.2 passer rating. Adebo has given up a 71.4% catch rate and 106.8 passer rating. Metcalf is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Top 10 Open Scores in 2022 updated through Week 4.

1. Tyler Lockett, 88
2. Courtland Sutton, 85
T3. Ja'Marr Chase, 81
T3. Zay Jones, 81
T3. Marquise Brown, 81
6. Ashton Dulin, 79
7. Diontae Johnson, 78
8. Mark Andrews, 76
9. CeeDee Lamb, 74
10. Stefon Diggs, 73

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 4, 2022

Tyler Lockett: New Orleans is a zone-heavy pass defense with their corners in zone coverage on 61.7-63.5%. What does this mean and why does it matter? It means it’s Lockett week. While Metcalf is the team’s go-to receiver against man coverage, Lockett owns the heavy lifting role against zone. 63.6% of his target volume has come against zone coverage. Lockett has the 16th-highest PFF receiving grade against zone coverage and 13th-best yards per route run against the coverage type (minimum five zone coverage targets). He’ll run about 54% of his routes against Lattimore and Adebo. Lockett is a WR3.

Michael Thomas: Thomas has been ruled out.

Jarvis Landry: Despite a questionable tag last week (ankle), Landry suited up and played his usual allotment of snaps (63%). He hasn’t finished higher than WR69 since Week 1. He’s seen just a 12% Target share and a 7.9% air yard share over the last three games while drawing only one red zone target. This could change in Week 5. Seattle’s outside corners haven’t been the issue for this pass defense. It’s their slot coverage that has been the gaping wound. Landry will run about 80% of his routes this week against Coby Bryant inside. Bryant has allowed a 71.4% catch rate and 136.9 passer rating. Landry is a strong matchup-based flex play.

Chris Olave: Well, that didn’t take long. While we impatiently wait for other rookies to break out at the receiver position, Olave wasted no time. After two introduction games finishing as WR51 and WR42 in fantasy, Olave has been the WR6 and WR17 over the last two weeks. He’s seen a studly 26.1% Target share (20th), 16.0 aDOT (fourth), and 36.0% air yard share (tenth). He’s 12th in PFF, receiving grade, and yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’s a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 despite the tough matchup against Tariq Woolen and Michael Jackson. Woolen has allowed a 52.9% catch rate and 40.4 passer rating. He has the raw speed to hang with Olave step-for-step. Jackson has given up a 53.3% catch rate and 90.7 passer rating. Jackson isn’t a slug either with 4.4 speed.

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson: Johnson has slipped to a deep league desperation streamer. Over the last two weeks, his route run rate has slipped to 57.1-58.1%, with his Target share only sitting at 7.4%. The matchup is nice on the surface against Seattle, 27th in DVOA with the most receiving yards and third-most receiving touchdowns allowed to the position. The bulk of this production has been surrendered to inline tight ends, though, and Johnson has lined up in the slot on 55.4% of his snaps.

Noah Fant: I’m not playing the SEA tight-end roulette game. Fant (50%) and Will Dissly (45.1%) have split routes equally, with both players seeing target shares below 10%. New Orleans remains a no-fly zone for tight ends. They are third best in DVOA, receiving yards, and yards per reception allowed to the position.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

By: Derek Brown

• MIA -3.5, O/U 46
• Dolphins vs. Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Dolphins are 26th in neutral pace but ninth in passing rate in this script. We’ll see if that continues with Teddy Bridgewater under center. I expect the pace to remain but the passing rate to come down.
• With Zach Wilson under center last week, the team continued to run at a blistering pace (24.3 seconds per snap) which would rank second-best overall this year. They did, however, transition into a run-balanced offense. Their neutral rushing rate last week would rank 12th overall this year. The Jets could change this as the season moves along, but I doubt that happens in Week 5.

Quarterbacks

Teddy Bridgewater: Bridgewater could have a banner day against a burnable Jets secondary if he can get time in the pocket. That’s a big if, though. New York is 29th in pass defense DVOA with the 11th-highest success rate and fourth-highest EPA per dropback. The good thing for Bridgewater is that the Jets have struggled against short passing (25th DVOA vs. 10th against deep passing). New York is 18th in pressure rate while blitzing at the fourth-lowest rate. Miami’s offensive line allowed Tua Tagovailoa to face the eighth-highest pressure rate (26.4%). It was even worse for Bridgewater last week as he saw pressure on 33.3% of his dropbacks. This has to do with Bridgewater’s propensity to hold onto the ball. Last week he had the second-highest time to throw behind only Marcus Mariota. This isn’t a new symptom either, as he was 11th in time to throw last year (minimum 200 dropbacks). If Miami can give him clean pockets or Mike McDaniels can scheme up quick passing plays for Bridgewater, he can carve up this secondary. He’s a volatile QB2/streamer option.

Zach Wilson: Wilson is a frightening QB2 option with a tantalizing ceiling this week if he can take advantage of the juicy matchup. In his first game back, Wilson finished as the QB11, but this was puffed up by him catching a flukey trick play pass for a touchdown. His actual quarterbacking numbers aren’t as kind. Among quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks, he ranks 21st in PFF passing grade and 22nd in adjusted completion rate. He had a frightening 9.3% turnover-worthy play rate, the highest among all qualifying quarterbacks in this sample. With all of that being said, Wilson is staring down a beautiful matchup against a Miami pass defense that can’t stop anyone. They have allowed the second-most passing yards and fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Miami is also first in success rate and second in EPA per dropback allowed. If Wilson can’t take advantage of this defense, it’s fair to question if he can at any point in 2022.

Running Backs

Weeks 3-4

Raheem Mostert: Mostert has grabbed the majority of this backfield over the last two weeks. Last week he saw a season-high 15 carries and 72% snap share. He’s dominated the routes while leading in Target share over Edmonds since Week 3. Mostert hasn’t shown much juice this year, ranking 49th in true yards per carry, 46th in yards created per touch, and 44th in juke rate. He’s a low-ceiling RB3 this week against an underrated Jets’ run defense. Facing the Browns’ elite run game in Week 2 skews their numbers upon the first pass. Remove that game; this defense would be sporting the fourth-lowest rushing yards per game, seventh-lowest EPA, and second-lowest explosive run rate allowed. Sit Mostert unless you don’t have any better options. I’d rather roll with a matchup-based receiver over him this week.

Chase Edmonds: Edmonds is a touchdown or bust flex. He’s seen his snap share drop each week, down from 63% in Week 1 to 28% last game. His 6.6 touches and 29.3 total yards per game over the last three weeks have been miserable. The only thing that has saved his fantasy value over this stretch has been red zone usage with his three total touchdowns. I’m not chasing hit-or-miss touchdown production from a player on a heater, and neither should you. Sit Edmonds until further notice.

Weeks 4

Breece Hall: Hall has taken over the backfield. His snaps have bumped up in three straight weeks with a season-high last of 66%. In that game, Hall dominated the rushing, routes, and red zone work with 19 touches and 78 total yards. In his second game as the primary, he draws an extremely nasty matchup. The Dolphins are fourth in run defense DVOA with the ninth-lowest rushing success rate, second-lowest EPA, and tenth-lowest explosive run rate allowed. With his every-down usage and 17.1% Target share last week, he can still have a productive day in fantasy through the air. Miami is 26th in DVOA against pass-catching backs with the fifth-most receptions, sixth-most receiving yards, and third-most receiving touchdowns allowed. Hall is a strong RB2.

Michael Carter: Carter saw his snaps cut to 44% last week, which follows a four-week decline. He still saw 11 touches but only mustered 29 total yards in the process. If he still sees around 40% of the snaps weekly and some red zone work, he’s still low-end flex viable. He can still operate as a weapon in the passing game against this defense. Carter is 14th in PFF receiving grade and 24th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets).

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: Hill hasn’t missed a beat with the relocation to Miami. He’s the WR4 in fantasy with a 32.6% Target share (fourth), 35.5% target per route run rate (fifth), and 37.4% air yard share (sixth-best). He leads the NFL in yards per route run and is fourth in PFF receiving grade (minimum ten targets). He’ll run about 58% of his routes against D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner if Mike McDaniel doesn’t roll him inside more (which could happen). Reed has been elite with a 44.4% catch rate and 32.9 passer rating allowed. Gardner has been impressive for a rookie with a 47.4% catch rate and 81.3 passer rating. Hill has seen 34.9% of his target volume from the slot this year and ranks tenth in slot yards per route run (minimum five slot targets). It wouldn’t surprise me to see his slot rate increased this week to take advantage of Michael Carter. Carter hasn’t been on the same level he was in his rookie season, with an 84.6% catch rate and 112.3 given up. Hill is a weekly WR1, even with Teddy two gloves tossing the rock. Hill has been listed as questionable (quad), but I expect him to play.

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle has been nothing short of spectacular in his sophomore campaign. He finished with a stinker game last week as the WR60, but before that, he hadn’t finished any week lower than WR28. He’s the WR6 in fantasy that has seen a 26.5% Target share (17th) and 30.9% air yard share (24th). He’s operated more on the boundary (77%), so he could be the sacrificial lamb laid at the altar of Reed and Gardner this week. It’s also possible he and Hill just rotate slot reps. Waddle has seen 29.4% of his targets from the slot as he’s second in slot yards per route run and PFF’s slot receiving grade. Waddle’s a high-end WR2. Waddle has been listed as questionable (groin), but he’s expected to play.

Garrett Wilson: Last week, with Zach Wilson back under center Garrett Wilson, finished second on the team in targets (17.1%), one behind Corey Davis, and route participation behind Elijah Moore (90%). Garrett Wilson still leads the team with a 21% Target share and 58.3% end zone Target share. He’s 23rd in PFF, receiving grade but only 35th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets) while dealing with a 65.8% catchable target rate (70th). He’s seen 42.9% of his target volume from the slot (57.6% slot rate). This week he’ll match up with Kader Kohou, who has allowed a 70% catch rate and 98.3 passer rating. Kohou has allowed the ninth-highest yards per snap this season from the slot (minimum 30 slot coverage snaps). Wilson is a WR3.

Elijah Moore: Moore has been one of the bigger disappointments this year. He’s failed to build on his electric rookie season. He’s only commanded a 14.3% Target share while ranking 82nd in target per route rate. His 1.02 yards per route run has been a saddening sight to behold. Moore is a WR5/6 that will line up against Nik Needham and Xavien Howard on about 75% of his routes. Needham has allowed a 58.3% catch rate and 119.8 passer rating. Howard sounds iffy to suit up this week as he’s dealing with a groin injury and is listed as questionable.. Howard has allowed a 66.7% catch rate and 149.3 passer rating. This is a good bounce-back spot for Moore, so if you need an upside flex, he could fit the bill. Keion Crossen would line up opposite Needham if Howard can’t play. Crossen has a 68.6% catch rate and 105.4 passer rating allowed in coverage for his career (51 targets).

Corey Davis: Last week, Davis led the team with a 20% Target share and 31.2% air yard share. He was also first in weighted opportunity. He has been the team’s deep threat tying Moore for the team lead in deep targets (14.0 aDOT). The biggest ding for Davis is his 72.5% route participation last week. While Wilson and Moore don’t leave the field, Davis did. This could be related to his ongoing knee issue that he’s playing through. Davis is 36th in PFF, receiving grade but dealing with the same terrible targets, so his yards per route run sits at 46th (minimum ten targets). He’ll run about 80% of his routes against Howard and Needham. Davis is in the same WR5/6 range as Moore.

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: Conklin has been a volume-based TE1. He’s the unspectacular TE8 in fantasy scoring. He’s seen a 14.9% Target share (14th) with “just a guy” type of efficiency (23rd in yards per route run). The fuel for his fantasy stock has been snaps and routes where he ranks seventh and second. He’s a strong streamer and could find himself inside the top 12 fantasy tight ends again this week. Miami is 31st in DVOA against tight ends, with the fifth-most receiving yards and tenth-most fantasy points allowed to inline tight ends (Conklin 60.4% inline).

MIA TEs: Starting a Miami tight end is begging for a possible zero in your lineup. The Jets are 12th in DVOA, and nobody from this group has eclipsed an 8% Target share or 55% route run rate.