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Matthew Freedman’s Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings & Start/Sit Lineup Advice (2022)

Waiver Wire Pickups: Quarterbacks to Stash Ahead of Week 10 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Here are my fantasy football rankings for Week 5. You can find our expert consensus fantasy football rankings for the week here. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings, and analysis. You can check out all of my favorite players of the week here.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady (TB) vs. ATL: Buccaneers -8.5 | 48.5 O/U

  • With the return of WRs Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones and LT Donovan Smith, Brady had the best performance of his season last week with 385 yards and three touchdowns passing.
  • The Falcons defense is No. 29 in dropback SR (51.5%).

Russell Wilson (DEN) vs. IND: Broncos -3.5 | 43.5 O/U

  • Wilson has been better than people think this year with his 7.7 AY/A (No. 11), tied with Josh Allen (7.7) and just ahead of Trevor Lawrence (7.6).
  • The Colts defense has a quarterback-friendly funnel defense that ranks No. 3 in rush DVOA (-28.6%) but N0. 28 in pass DVOA (23.7%, per Football Outsiders).
  • The Colts could be without All-Pro LB Shaquille Leonard (concussion) and EDGE Tyquan Lewis (concussion) and maybe S Julian Blackmon (ankle), given the short turnaround to Thursday Night Football.

Andy Dalton (NO) vs. SEA: Saints -5.5 | O/U 45.5

  • Dalton looked good in London last week with a 71.4% completion rate and 9.1 AY/A.
  • The Seahawks defense is dead last in dropback EPA per play (0.366) and pass DVOA (38.6%).
  • If starter Jameis Winston returns to the lineup, I’ll probably be high on him.

Teddy Bridgewater (MIA) at NYJ: Dolphins -3 | O/U 44.5

  • Last year, Bridgewater was No. 7 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.128), and last week he was serviceable with 191 yards and one touchdown passing as the in-game fill-in for injured starter Tua Tagovailoa (concussion, out).
  •  The Jets defense is No. 29 in dropback EPA per play (0.215): Bridgewater has literally a five-star matchup.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara (NO) vs. SEA: Saints -5.5 | 46 O/U

  • Kamara (ribs) was a surprise late inactive last week, which makes me optimistic that he’ll play this week.
  • In Week 1, Kamara suffered an injury, and he missed Weeks 2 & 4 because of the injury — but in Week 3 he had 15 carries and seven targets.
  • The Seahawks defense is No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (26.0 FPPG).

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) vs. DET: Patriots -3 | 45.5 O/U

  • Although teammate Damien Harris has been productive, Stevenson has actually been the lead back over the past three games with 35 carries and 12 targets.
  • The Lions defense is No. 28 in rush SR (50.5%).

Khalil Herbert (CHI) at MIN: Bears +7 | 44 O/U

  • No. 1 RB David Montgomery (knee) is uncertain to play after missing last week, when Herbert had 101 yards on 19 carries and a target.
  • In his six games as an injury fill-in for Montgomery, Herbert has 117-578-3 rushing and 12-80-0 receiving on 13 targets.
  • The Vikings defense is No. 29 in rush RR (50.9%).

Kareem Hunt (CLE) vs. LAC: Browns +3 | 47.5 O/U

  • Even with No. 1 RB Nick Chubb dominating opponents, Hunt in every game has managed to earn 10-plus carries and 2-4 targets, which he has leveraged into 273 yards and two touchdowns.
  • The Chargers defense is No. 3 in rush EPA per play (0.078) and No. 31 in pass DVOA against running backs (50.8%).

Wide Receivers

Gabe Davis (BUF) vs. PIT: Bills -14 | 47 O/U

  • Davis (ankle) has just 4-50-0 receiving on nine targets over the past two weeks while playing through an injury — but he still has a playmaking 9.9 yards per target this year and 9.3 for his career.
  • Davis could get a lot of targets this week because No. 3 WR Isaiah McKenzie (concussion) exited Week 4 early, No. 4 WR Jamison Crowder (ankle, IR) is out for the year and No. 5 WR Jake Kumerow missed Week 4 after not practicing at all last week.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) vs. LV: Chiefs -7 | 51 O/U

  • What Clyde Edwards-Helaire is to running backs, Smith-Schuster sort of is to wide receivers: He’s underwhelming (19-224-0 receiving on 27 targets) — but he’s the No. 1 option at his position on the best offense in the league, and he has eight targets in three of four games.
  • Without Nos. 1-2 CBs Rock Ya-Sin (knee) and Anthony Averett (thumb, IR) last week, the Raiders used SS Johnathan Abram heavily in the slot, and he could struggle this week if he’s forced to play there again: He has allowed a 75.2% catch rate for his career.

Curtis Samuel (WAS) vs. TEN: Commanders +2.5 | 42.5 O/U

  • Samuel has led the Commanders in targets each week with 11, 9, 10 and 7, with which (accompanied by eight carries) he has put up 270 yards and two touchdowns.
  • The Titans are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers (36.0 FPPG).

Michael Gallup (DAL) at LAR: Cowboys +4.5 | 43.5 O/U

  • In his Week 4 return from last year’s season-ending knee injury, Gallup looked better than his bottom-line numbers (2-24-1 receiving, three targets), as he also drew 38-yard and 27-yard pass interference penalties.
  • The Rams are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers (39.4 FPPG).

Joshua Palmer (LAC) at CLE: Chargers -3 | 47.5 O/U

  • I doubt No. 1 WR Keenan Allen (hamstring) plays this week: He hasn’t played since Week 1, and he seemed to suffer a soft-tissue setback last week after practicing limitedly on Wednesday and Thursday but sitting out on Friday.
  • In his five full games without either Allen or WR Mike Williams, Palmer has served as the No. 2 option with an average of 6.6 targets, which he has converted into 11.0 FPPG
  • The Browns defense is No. 29 in pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (46.8%).

Corey Davis (NYJ) vs. MIA: Jets +3 | O/U 44.5

  • The heart wants what it wants: In QB Zach Wilson’s 2022 debut last week, Davis led the Jets with seven targets and 5-74-1 receiving.
  • The Dolphins defense is No. 31 in dropback EPA per play (0.239) and pass DVOA (33.6%) and No. 32 in dropback SR (52.8%).

Jakobi Meyers (NE) vs. DET: Patriots -3 | 45.5 O/U

  • Meyers (knee) hasn’t played since Week 2, but he did get in a limited practice every day last week, so I’m optimistic that he’ll suit up on Sunday.
  • For the season, he has 157 yards on 19 targets and one carry.
  • The Lions defense is No. 28 in dropback SR (51.5%) and No. 30 in dropback EPA per play (0.234).

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth (PIT) at BUF: Steelers -14 | 47 O/U

  • Despite playing with WRs Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and George Pickens, the second-year Freiermuth is No. 2 on the Steelers with 21 targets and 18 receptions — and No. 1 with 223 yards receiving.
  • He’s No. 3 at the position with 80.3 AirYAC per game and No. 4 with a 23.8% target share (per our Advanced TE Stats Report).
  • The Bills are without S Micah Hyde (neck, IR).

AirYAC is a leading indicator of fantasy output in that it measures both a pass catcher’s opportunity (air yards) and his playmaking ability (yards after catch).

Tyler Conklin (NYJ) vs. MIA: Jets +3 | O/U 44.5

  • Conklin is No. 2 on the team with 163 routes, 29 targets and 21 receptions, which he has leveraged into a serviceable 192 yards and a touchdown.
  • The Dolphins are No. 31 in pass DVOA against tight ends (41.4%).

Juwan Johnson (NO) vs. SEA: Saints -5.5 | 46 O/U

  • It’s gross, but at least Johnson has four-plus targets and 30-plus yards in three of four games.
  • The Seahawks defense is No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (18.0 FPPG).

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