It’s already Week 4 in the 2022 NFL season. Preseason feels like it was yesterday, but teams have already begun to form their identity through the first three weeks of action. From a fantasy football context, there’s a lot that we nailed but even more unpredictable outbreaks and duds. Based on what we’ve seen thus far, we’ve put together a list of fantasy draft decisions to do differently if time machines were invented.

Note: Performance/Usage is the standard basis for these actions – not injuries; half-point PPR is the scoring format.

Turning back the clock to late August and early September, here are a few of the decisions we would’ve made with the current data and production available entering Week 4.

Hammer Zero RB Strategy

We’ve only seen what teams have done in September but the evidence suggests, overwhelmingly, that wide receivers have fared much better than running backs with first or second-round ADP. Nick Chubb (RB – CLE) had a late first-round or early second-round ADP, while Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG) was available to draft in the third round. These are currently the top two running backs in half-PPR formats, which means players like Christian McCaffery (RB – CAR), Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND), and Derrick Henry (RB – TEN) are not returning the value we invested in using first-round draft capital. James Robinson (RB – JAC) and Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – ATL) were seventh and eighth-round draft picks, but they are currently ranked inside the top six for running back fantasy production. Time will tell if the sluggish running back start is here to stay for the remainder of the 2022 NFL season, but pivoting toward wide receivers like Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR), Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA), and Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF) has been a much better ROI to start the fantasy season.

Early TE-QB Stacks

There aren’t a lot of elite tight ends who can consistently produce elite numbers in fantasy football. That’s why targeting Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) and Travis Kelce (TE – KC) should’ve been a priority. While these two star players were expensive in terms of second or third-round ADP, that’s only half of the equation here. Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) and Andrews were members of the same 2018 draft class in Baltimore and the chemistry the two have developed is special. Jackson trusts Andrews more than any other skilled player in the Ravens’ offense, treating him as the de facto TE1, resulting in 53.8 fantasy points for Andrews across three weeks. Considering how fleeting and volatile the tight end position is for fantasy production, getting a player like Andrews who possesses a massive floor and ceiling is a significant advantage. Kelce and Andrews lead their team in receptions and receiving yards while being continuous red-zone targets. Acquiring Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) and Jackson would’ve been the next step in this strategy, which also would’ve cost fifth-round draft capital. Through three weeks, it’s paid off in a big way for fantasy managers.

Draft Dual-Threat Quarterbacks

Whether it’s Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen (QB – BUF), or Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI), the advantage fantasy managers get with a dual-threat quarterback is notable. All three of these quarterbacks have at least 19 carries and a touchdown, while Jackson and Hurts lead all quarterbacks in carries with 26 and 37 attempts, respectively. Even Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL), who was free in redraft leagues, has carried 25 times for 92 yards and two touchdowns, which boosts his stock in fantasy football. Non-mobile quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR), Tom Brady (QB – TB), and Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) are one-dimensional in terms of fantasy production. Yes, Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) has yet to get fully going, but he’s still handed double-digit carries and secured a touchdown as a ball carrier. Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) is another good fantasy quarterback based on his usage on the ground, handling 25 carries for 125 rushing yards. Rushing yards and rushing touchdowns are weighed differently than passing yards and passing touchdowns, which is why dual-threat quarterbacks are so valuable in fantasy football.

Don’t Be Afraid of WR2s

The natural inclination to avoid drafting a team’s second wide receiver made sense during fantasy drafts. Through three weeks, there have been numerous WR2s who are outperforming and outproducing their WR1 counterparts. Tee Higgins (WR – CIN) is the WR7 with 53.5 half-PPR points, while Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) is the WR8 with 52 half-PPR points. They are neck and neck but Higgins was available in the third and fourth rounds of fantasy drafts, versus Chase, who was frequently taken as a top-five fantasy player. Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) is another WR2 co-existing with the alpha wideout in Miami, as both he and Tyreek Hill are the current WR1 and WR3 overall. DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI) laid an egg in Week 1 with A.J. Brown’s (WR – PHI) arrival, but he’s been red-hot ever since, ranking as the WR20 with 38.4 half-PPR points compared to Brown’s 46.9. One more example is rookie wideout Chris Olave (WR – NO), who has seen the most air yards for any wideout in his 2022 draft class, turning the opportunity into 35.3 half-PPR points. This is good enough to be the WR25, compared to Michael Thomas (WR – NO), who has scored the touchdowns but sits at WR15.

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