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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 5 (2022 Fantasy Football)

by Jamie Calandro | Featured Writer
Oct 4, 2022
Tom Brady

The buy-low window is closing on Tom Brady in season-long leagues, but DraftKings is a step slow with their pricing.

Welp, the Mariota play I sang from the mountain-tops certainly busted last week, but thankfully all the skill position players I used around him did more than enough to net me a profitable Sunday. Now we turn our attention to week 5, where injuries will once again play a factor in determining value. Remember, every dollar is precious on the dynamic pricing of DraftKings. Good luck building!

Quarterback

Tom Brady (QB – TB) ($6000) vs ATL

The GOAT’s receiving crew was finally fully healthy on Sunday night against the Chiefs, and as a result, we saw a Brady box score that we’re used to (39-52, 385 yards, 3 TD). Brady moved from QB30 to QB18 in one fell swoop and has a solid chance to vault even higher up the rankings with a get-right matchup against the Falcons. Atlanta’s defense does have eight sacks and four turnovers so far, but they’ve also allowed 101 points through four games and have surrendered the ninth most FPPG to opposing QBs. The buy-low window on Brady is closing in season-long leagues, but DraftKings missed that memo for DFS with his $6000 price tag.

Running Backs

Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) ($6200) @ JAC

I was admittedly slow to accept the Pierce ascension, but I can’t deny anymore that he’s the guy, and he seems to be game script independent after receiving six targets as well. Pierce has 42 touches over the last two games and is also averaging 6.2 yards per touch in that timeframe. Against the Jags, who have allowed the sixth-most FPPG to opposing RBs, Pierce should be popular at his price tag.

Tyler Allgeier/Caleb Huntley (RBs – ATL) ($4700/$4300) @ TB

Cordarrelle Patterson was placed on IR on Monday with a knee injury, and this roster move was timed JUST so the DFS sites couldn’t catch up to pricing up his backups. I’ll be honest, the matchup is terrible against TB (fifth-fewest FPPG given up to RBs and under 3.0 YPC allowed), but both showed serious promise in Week 4. Allgeier is averaging 5.9 yards per touch in three games, and Huntley came in as well to average 5.6 YPC with a score. Both are far too cheap and can be used in all formats, and Allgeier is a cash game value as the likeliest one to be the lead back.

Wide Receivers

Chris Godwin (WR – TB) ($5900) vs. ATL

Godwin’s price tag makes no sense even in a vacuum, and the fact that it didn’t even move from last week is even more egregious. Godwin’s role was unclear in week four, but he came out and played an 83% snap share and hauled in seven of ten targets. As long as he gets through this week without any setbacks, Godwin is far too cheap against the Falcons. They have allowed the sixth-most FPPG to opposing WRs and routinely give up more production in the slot than on the perimeter.

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA) ($5600) @ NO

If you stacked the Lions/Seahawks game, you’re likely a good deal richer this week. I wouldn’t expect the same result with Seattle playing the Saints, but it’s also silly that Lockett’s price tag has dropped $300. Clearly, the Birds’ WR1 with Geno Smith, Lockett has 30 targets over the last three weeks and is sixth in the NFL in receptions with a 29.3% air yards share. He’ll likely avoid the Marcus Lattimore coverage as he lines up all over, and the Saints’ slow secondary should play right into Lockett’s speed profile. Play him again.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR) ($4300) vs DAL

Higbee is our #MondayNightDiscount play of the week, as it’s simply not reflective of his production, particularly last night, where he received 14 targets. Cooper Kupp will forever be the number one for the Rams, but Higbee is looking like the clear number two option. He’s played on 95% of snaps for the Rams and ranks third among TEs in targets, fourth in catches, and second in YAC. The matchup against Dallas isn’t great, but Higbee is too cheap concerning the other TE pricing.

Cade Otton (TE – TB) ($2500) vs ATL

The Bucs trend continues with the rookie Cade Otton. Cameron Brate has been running as the TE1 in Tampa, but he’s currently in the concussion protocol and will have to clear several hurdles to suit up against the Falcons on Sunday. Otton came in for Brate on Sunday night and went 3-29 on four targets and would seem to have an expanded workload without Brate in uniform. He’s priced at the bare minimum, which would open up a TON, and the Falcons have conceded the third most FPPG to opposing TEs.

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