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NFL Week 6 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2022)

NFL Week 6 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2022)

Welcome to week six, DFS faithful. This week begins the bye weeks, so several options are removed from the player pool for this week’s main slate of action.

This article usually centers around identifying some players that represent value by potentially outperforming their salaries due to game script, salary changes, lineup changes, and other key metrics and stats.

No hesitation, let’s get into this week’s values.

Quarterbacks

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN) $6,000 vs. MIA

Is he a flashy option at the quarterback position? No, no, he is not. Does he have the upside some of the other far more mobile quarterbacks have? No, he does not have that either. Still, Kirk Cousins is fairly reliable as a quarterback option and remains a weekly contender for being a value at his modest cost.

Among all quarterbacks, Cousins ranks as third-lowest percentage in what are deemed off-target passes. Put another way, he is one of the more accurate passers delivering a catchable ball to his receivers. In DFS, his 17.3 fantasy points per game are higher than both Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, who are both more expensive.

All of that being said, Cousins only has two games this season where he has thrown more than one touchdown. Interestingly enough, the Dolphins have only allowed two quarterbacks to throw less than two passing touchdowns; Mac Jones and Zach Wilson, respectively.

Cousins does have some upside heading into this game and is averaging 39.6 pass attempts per contest. With the weapons at his disposal, Cousins represents a potential top-ten finish at the position.

FanDuel

Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) $6,800 vs. BAL

There is always a ‘hold your nose’ kind of feeling when putting Daniel Jones into a DFS lineup, and quite honestly, this feels like a great week to pay up at the position. However, Daniel Jones could be the sneaky play of the week, the same way Geno Smith has been for a few weeks this season.

Full transparency, Danny Dimes has only three passing touchdowns after five weeks. That does not instill much confidence. However, he has the fourth-most rushing attempts at the position and the third-most rushing yards. The only quarterbacks above him are Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Fields. He is averaging 46 rushing yards per game, providing him with a safe floor and creating upside in favorable matchups.

This brings us to the Ravens, who are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. They’re currently allowing 305.8 passing yards, which leads the NFL. They’re also allowing an average of 1.8 passing touchdowns and 21.6 rushing yards to the position. This dials up the passing volume in a game where the Ravens are projected to be playing with a lead throughout.

Jones is in cash play consideration but could be a nice value at the salary and free up some money for other positions. He will be in a few of my GPP lineups despite the risk.

Running Backs

DraftKings

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE) $6,000 vs. CLE

Stevenson stepped in for an injured Damien Harris last weekend and turned 25 carries into 161 rushing yards; that’s an average of 6.44 yards per carry for those doing the math at home. Per normal, when his number gets called, he delivers. With Bailey Zappe potentially looking at another start, the easiest way to take some pressure off of a rookie quarterback is to run the dang ball. Teams that run the dang ball against the Browns are scoring the third-highest fantasy points among the position.

There is nothing complicated here. When given the lead dog role and volume, Stevenson has delivered. Not even midway through his second season, Stevenson is averaging 4.9 yards per attempt for his career.

With a floor of 20 carries when Damien Harris is out against a defense that is allowing 6.04 yards per attempt this season, it’s difficult to pass him up at cost. He may be more of a chalky pick this week, but I will still have shares in tournaments as well.

FanDuel

Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB – LAR) $5,700 vs. CAR

This play is based more on perceived opportunity than the previous production. In short, Cam Akers missed multiple practices for what was listed as “personal,” and head coach Sean McVay stated he would not play this weekend. That leaves Darrell Henderson expected to handle the bulk of the carries for the Rams.

Henderson has consistently played more snaps throughout the season, despite his production being spotty at best. He is averaging 60.8% percent of the snaps versus Akers’s 35.9% average. Henderson is averaging 6.8 carries and three targets per game with Akers in the lineup. During that time, Akers has averaged 10.1 carries, though done little with them. Neither back has jumped off of the stat sheet, meaning there is some risk with this play this week.

The Panthers’ run defense has been fairly generous, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to the position this season. They allow an average of 120 rushing yards and .8 rushing touchdowns per contest to opposing running backs.

The salary suggests that Henderson should be a GPP play, but the rostered percentage will climb with the Akers’s absence. He might be a better cash game player this week. For multiple lineup GPP players, Henderson should also have the volume and eruption potential to be in a few lineups.

Wide Receivers

DraftKings

D.J. Moore (WR – CAR) $5,100 vs. LAR

For seasonal leagues, D.J. Moore has been one of the more prominent disappointments. Adding Baker Mayfield was expected to propel Moore into a different tier. Needless to say, thus far, that has not happened.

This week, Mayfield’s struggles cannot affect Moore. P.J. Walker is expected to draw the start. While Walker is just an average backup, Moore has averaged a 28.6% target share with Walker under center. Moore is averaging five receptions in those games on 9.1 targets for 80.1 receiving yards. While not known as a strong bet for touchdown scoring, the volume should be safe as Walker’s first read.

The Rams’ defense is far from imposing, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. With an expected low rostered percentage, Moore represents upside in tournaments.

FanDuel

Chris Godwin (WR – TB) $6,800 vs. PIT

While Chris Godwin has yet to truly return to the fantasy form we’re most accustomed to, the big game is coming and it might be this one. Despite having a limited practice session earlier in the week labeled as knee and hip, he heads into this matchup carrying no injury designation.

The matchup is juicy against a Steelers defense that allowed two receivers to go over 100-yards last week and three more over the course of the prior four weeks. They are allowing an average of 221.2 receiving yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game to the position, both leading the league.

Godwin played limited snaps in the second half of last week’s game but reeled in all six targets for a season-high 61 yards. He may see softer coverage with Mike Evans drawing his own defensive attention, and the Steelers remain vulnerable in the slot.

Godwin has yet to have a big game since returning from injury. Between matchup, positive regression, and Brady wearing a Godwin shirt to a press appearance, he should be in some GPP lineups in anticipation of that big game.

Tight Ends

DraftKings

Zach Ertz (TE – ARI) $4,900 vs. SEA

If the upper tier of tight ends is too pricey to stomach, there are a few basic things to analyze for DFS purposes. The first is opportunity. Now five weeks in, we can look through some reasonable data to assist with this decision. Zach Ertz is currently fourth among the position in target with 41 on the season, averaging out to 8.2 on a per-contest basis. Opportunity, check.

The second is the matchup. The Seahawks are currently allowing the most fantasy points to the position. For full transparency, this is somewhat buoyed by T.J. Hockenson‘s massive game in week four. Even with that game removed, they would still allow 60.5 receiving yards to tight ends per contest. Matchup, check.

The third is cost. Despite being the third-highest fantasy points per game average among the position, Ertz settles in as the fourth-most expensive salary. Cost, check.

In its simplest form, Ertz checks every box for being a viable play at the position without spending the higher salary requirements to get production into the tight end slot.

FanDuel

Evan Engram (TE – JAC) $5,200 vs. IND

Evan Engram has been more productive than many had expected. He is currently 12th in targets (26), and 12th in receiving yards (168) but remains just 15th in scoring due to a lack of touchdowns. Among the top-22 tight ends in scoring, all but three have yet to score a receiving touchdown; Tyler Higbee, Taysom Hill, and Evan Engram.

The Colts have struggled against tight ends, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to the big fellas, including two receiving touchdowns.

Quietly averaging 5.2 targets per game, the volume will remain consistent, and in a positive matchup where we can expect Trevor Lawrence needing to pass more. Engram could see his touchdown drought end in this matchup and he represents top-12 appeal simply based on volume.

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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.

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