The recent explosion of online betting and new, inventive ways to play fantasy sports has most of our heads spinning. No House Advantage’s new app lets you stack over/under prop bets to win real money. I’ll be here weekly, giving you my favorite prop bet plays to help you build a winning stack.
Want to read about only your players? Sync your team (free) to get My Primer 
Sunday Early Slate
- Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (London — 9:30 AM EST) — NFLN
- Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons — CBS
- Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens — CBS
- Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys — FOX
- Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions — FOX
- Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans — CBS
- Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts — FOX
- Chicago Bears @ New York Giants — FOX
- Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles — FOX
- New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers — CBS
Chris Olave (WR – NO) — OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards
After a slow start to his rookie season, Saints rookie WR Chris Olave had a big day in Week 3, hauling in nine of his 13 targets for 147 receiving yards. Heading into a Week 4 match-up against the Minnesota Vikings in London, Olave looks to continue to be a marquee piece of this New Orleans. That shouldn’t be a problem for the talented receiver out of Ohio State. WR Michael Thomas will sit out for this contest with a foot injury, and his counterpart, WR Jarvis Landry, has been limited in practice all week.
Olave will be the de facto WR1 for the Saints, who will need him to be a dominant force, with backup QB Andy Dalton likely behind center in this game. I expect him to repeat his performance from last week, making this an easy, high-priority over play this Sunday.
Jamaal Williams (RB – DET) — OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards
The 2022 season was supposed to be the year of D’Andre Swift in Detroit. The third-year RB looked to be entering the season fully healthy and ready to explode. However, after an explosive start to the season in Week 1, the Lions backfield has turned into more of a committee, and it appears Swift will now miss Week 4 due to injury. This leaves his backfield companion, RB Jamaal Williams, as the marquee ball carrier for the Lions Sunday match-up against Seattle Seahawks.
RB Craig Reynolds will likely spell Williams on occasion, but this team is running the ball an average of 29 times per game so far this season. Given that the Seahawks are in the bottom ten of run defenses in the NFL, Williams should easily surpass 66 rushing yards to crush the over on this prop bet. I like this as a lock for a high-priority prop play in Week 4.
James Robinson (RB – JAC) — UNDER 63.5 Rushing Yards
It would be fair that no one expected Jacksonville RB James Robinson to start 2022 with a bang as he has. Coming off an Achilles tear in Week 16 last season, most reasonable people expected him to have a slow start and RB Travis Etienne to carry the load for the Jaguars’ backfield. That has not been the case. Robinson has been almost inhuman, amassing 230 yards rushing on 51 attempts. Watching him defy logic and everything we know about modern medicine has been a lot of fun, but a tough Week 4 match-up against a good Philadelphia defense will bring him back down to earth.
The Eagles allowed D’ASndre Swift to go off against them in Week 1 but haven’t allowed more than 38 yards on the ground to any other RB in the last two weeks. While I think Robinson will continue to be a reliable rusher in Jacksonville, Philly will hold him in check in a bad match-up this week. I’m taking the under on this prop bet and playing it as a mid-priority pick.
Sunday Afternoon Slate
- Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers — FOX
- New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers — CBS
- Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos — CBS
A.J. Dillon (RB – GB) — UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards
Packers RB A.J. Dillon has a bright future ahead of him in the NFL. The talented third-year back out of Boston College is an electric runner with good hands and quick feet. Unfortunately, he plays along fellow RB Aaron Jones, a perennial top-tier performer at the position. While Dillon sees a decent workload most weeks, it hasn’t been consistent over the previous two seasons. This week Green Bay faces off against a New England defense that has been stout against the run.
In Week 2, they held Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris to just 49 yards rushing and are only giving up 78 yards rushing to teams that don’t have Lamar Jackson at QB. Jones will likely get the majority of the workload in this game, and while Dillon will still get short yardage and goal line opportunities, those don’t translate to yards. I’m taking the under on this prop bet but making it a low-priority just in case things get ugly and Dillon gets unexpected junk time yardage.
Marquise Brown (WR – ARI) — UNDER 5.5 Receptions
There were big expectations for Cardinals WR Marquise Brown heading into 2022. A draft day trade this past offseason reunited the former Raven with his college QB, Kyler Murray; furthering those expectations was the loss of WR DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season to suspension and the team letting WR Christian Kirk walk in free agency. Through three games, Brown has not disappointed.
Last week, he was targeted a season-high 17 times, reeling in 14 catches for 140 receiving yards. This week, Arizona is facing a bottom-tier defense in Carolina, and it seems like a week where Brown would feast. However, Brown popped up on the injury report this past Friday with a foot issue. Initial reports suggest he will still be on the field, but the team can afford to be cautious with their WR1 against a very bad all-around Panthers team. This game should be settled before the end of the first half, and both Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore appear on track to play. I’m playing the under this week on Marquise Brown and making it a mid-priority play with confidence.
Derek Carr (QB – LV) — OVER 0.5 Interceptions
Raiders QB Derek Carr headed into 2022 with a set of shiny weapons and was ready to deploy them on a loaded AFC West. So far, however, Las Vegas has been anything but dangerous. Sitting at 0-3, their offense appears to have no real identity. Week 1 aside, free agent acquisition Davante Adams hasn’t been the monster he was expected to be, and a leaky offensive line has kept Carr scrambling. This has left us with an unusually rattled Carr behind center, who is on pace to throw 22 interceptions this season.
While I believe this offense will get things figured out, and Carr will improve, it won’t be against a very talented Denver defense this week. The Raiders will again be without one of Carr’s favorite targets, WR Hunter Renfrow, in Week 4. The Broncos only have one interception so far this season, but in a division rivalry and prove-it game for a team that shouldn’t be 2-1, this unit will be out for blood. This could easily be a multiple-interception, and I’m taking the over on this prop and proudly putting it in as a high-priority play.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.
