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Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 12 (2022)

Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 12 (2022)

The game of fantasy football has become more complex over the past several years. While the game itself hasn’t changed much, the way to analyze stats and draw conclusions has become much more in-depth with the development of advanced stats.

One of those advanced stats is air yards. Why are air yards important? Because it helps differentiate the value of targets. Quick passes like screens and slants have a different value than downfield routes. Depending on what your league’s scoring is, it will make a difference in what you want from a fantasy player.

Receiving yards is a basic yet important stat for fantasy football players. Having receivers who catch plenty of short targets is valuable in PPR scoring. However, a receiver with consistent big-play ability downfield is equally valuable.

Air yards are not the golden ticket to winning your fantasy league. However, they are a useful tool to help you analyze the game. Let’s look at the top 10 performers at each position and the five top underperformers.

Stats via FantasyPros

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Pass Attempts

1) Daniel Jones (NYG)

214

4.9

44

2) Derek Carr (LV)

212

5.7

37

3) Kenny Pickett (PIT)

207

4.9

42

4) Ryan Tannehill (TEN)

205

7.6

27

5) Patrick Mahomes (KC)

197

5.8

34

6) Joe Burrow (CIN)

191

4.9

39

7) Justin Herbert (LAC)

183

6.1

30

8) Jacoby Brissett (CLE)

176

4.3

41

9) Aaron Rodgers (GB)

161

4.1

39

10) Andy Dalton (NO)

152

6.1

25

Could the Titans passing attack become fantasy relevant? Tannehill had 205 air yards last week, easily a season-high. The rookie Treylon Burks had 111 receiving yards (75 air yards) on seven receptions on Thursday night, repeatedly taking advantage of the Green Bay secondary. More importantly, the veteran quarterback had an efficient performance. He ended the week fourth in air yards but 16th in pass attempts. His aDOT of 7.6 was the highest last week, 1.1 yards more than any other quarterback.

Speaking of efficient performances, Dalton completed 84% of his pass attempts on Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams. While his 152 air yards were the 10th-most last week, his 6.1 aDOT ranked second among quarterbacks with 20 or more pass attempts. Meanwhile, the veteran quarterback was awful over the previous two weeks, averaging only nine fantasy points per game. During that span, he averaged 126 air yards per game and a 4.5 aDOT. Which version of Dalton will fantasy players get in Week 12 against the San Francisco 49ers? We shall see.

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Targets

1) Davante Adams (LV)

110

8.5

13

2) Tee Higgins (CIN)

104

8

13

3) Demarcus Robinson (BAL)

88

9.8

9

4) Amari Cooper (CLE)

84

7

12

5) Chris Olave (NO)

76

12.7

6

6) DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)

76

6.3

12

7) Treylon Burks (TEN)

75

9.4

8

8) George Pickens (PIT)

74

12.3

6

9) Joshua Palmer (LAC)

74

7.4

10

10) Terrace Marshall Jr. (CAR)

70

11.7

6

The Cleveland passing attack is starting to click, just in time for Deshaun Watson‘s return in Week 13. Cooper has 547 air yards this season, the eighth-most in the NFL. He struggled in Week 10 against the Miami Dolphins, totaling only 27 air yards. However, the veteran receiver had at least 65 air yards in his previous two games, averaging 82.5 air yards per game during that span. With several fantasy-friendly matchups over the next several weeks and the return of Watson, fantasy players need to trade for Cooper this week.

While Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returned for the Chargers on Sunday night, Palmer stole the show. The third-year receiver led the team in receptions (eight), targets (10), receiving yards (106), and air yards (74) while finishing second with a 7.4 aDOT. Palmer played a team-high 92% of the snaps as Williams left the game after six plays after re-aggravating his ankle injury. The Chargers believe Williams’ injury is minor, and he should be good to go moving forward. However, fantasy players should grab Palmer off the waiver wire if the young receiver is available. The third-year receiver has shown he can put up impressive numbers when given a chance.

The Top 10 Tight Ends

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Targets

1) Pat Freiermuth (PIT)

54

4.5

12

2) Mark Andrews (BAL)

51

6.4

8

3) Dawson Knox (BUF)

40

5.7

7

4) Jody Fortson (KC)

39

19.5

2

5) Logan Thomas (WAS)

39

6.5

6

6) Juwan Johnson (NO)

34

8.5

4

7) Tyler Higbee (LAR)

34

4.3

8

8) Austin Hooper (TEN)

32

8

4

9) Cole Kmet (CHI)

31

7.8

4

10) George Kittle (SF)

30

5

6

No JuJu Smith-Schuster or Mecole Hardman for the Chiefs? No problem. Even with Kadarius Toney leaving the game early after playing only 14 snaps, Kansas City had no trouble moving the ball through the air. Surprisingly, Travis Kelce finished outside the top-10 tight ends in air yards last week (12th with 27 air yards). Yet, the superstar tight end had 10 targets in Week 11, the second-most among tight ends and eighth-most in the NFL. Mahomes can make any pass catcher look good, evident by Fortson’s 39 air yards on two targets last week. By comparison, the backup tight end had 15 air yards on six targets before Sunday’s matchup against the Chargers.

The tight end position has always been a frustrating position for fantasy players. With Kyle Pitts likely done for the year with a knee injury, fantasy players will need to find a replacement. One name they should consider is Juwan Johnson. The New Orleans tight end has five receiving touchdowns this season, the second-most at the position. He is also seventh in air yards among tight ends (220) despite being 15th in receptions with 31. More importantly, Johnson is the TE3 over the past five weeks in half-point PPR scoring, averaging 11.3 fantasy points per game. With Michael Thomas out for the year, Johnson should continue to put up TE1 numbers.

The Top Five Underperformers

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Targets

1) Trey McBride (TE – ARI)

4

1

4

2) T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN)

13

1.4

9

3) Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)

15

1.7

9

4) Greg Dortch (WR – ARI)

16

1.6

10

5) Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG)

43

3.3

13

With Zach Ertz unable to play, McBride stepped up as the No. 1 tight end for the Cardinals. Despite playing 76% of the snaps, the rookie tight end had only four targets and four air yards. Meanwhile, Ronald Moore left the game after only two snaps because of a groin injury. While Dortch had 10 targets filling in for Moore, the second-most on the team, he had only 16 air yards. By comparison, he had 29 fewer air yards than A.J. Green, who played 16% fewer snaps. Despite the Cardinals missing three starters, McBride and Dortch did little with their opportunities.

Unfortunately, last week’s matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings was a massive blowout. The game got so out of hand that the national media coverage switched to the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers game during the middle of the contest. The Vikings would love to put that awful performance behind them and move on. Hockenson led the team with nine targets but had only 13 air yards. By comparison, he averaged 9.5 targets and 43.5 air yards per game over his first two games with Minnesota. Fantasy players should chalk up last week’s performance as a fluke. Expect Hockenson to bounce back on Thanksgiving night against the New England Patriots.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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