In 2015, the NFL changed the distance for the extra point to the 15-yard line to make the try more challenging and increase the chance of teams going for two. Before the change, extra points were made 99.5% in 2014 and just 95.5% in 2015.

A season-high nine extra points were missed last week, including a pair of tries by otherwise accurate kickers Jason Sanders and Younghoe Koo. In the shootout between the Bills and Vikings, Greg Joseph missed a try in the fourth quarter that helped the game go to overtime. Robbie Gould missed an extra point that, at the time, kept the score between the Chargers and 49ers a three-point game.

Of all the missed kicks, perhaps the most significant came off the foot of Cario Santos of the Bears. The Lion’s 21-point comeback in the fourth quarter gave them a 31-30 road win over the Bears and could have been a different outcome had Santos not shanked his try in the final periods.

Wins and losses often come from special teams’ performances, and Week 10 of the 2022 NFL season proved that to be the case. As we continue into winter months and weather conditions worsen, a reliable kicker becomes that much more important.

Week 10 Stud Performances from Widely-Available Kickers

Joey Slye (WAS) @ Philadelphia: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo

Slye had his best game of the season in an upset road victory over the formerly undefeated Eagles. His 19 points were the most on the week of any kicker in a performance that included two long tries of over 50 yards.

Eddy Pineiro (CAR) vs. Atlanta: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo

The top two kickers on the week were rostered in just one percent of Yahoo leagues. Pineiro posted 15 points, despite missing an extra point on the day. This was more of an outlier performance, and I do not recommend chasing Pineiro with the Panthers playing on the road this week in Baltimore.

Week 10 Dud Performances from Widely-Rostered Kickers

Daniel Carlson (LV) vs. Indianapolis: 99% roster percentage on Yahoo

It is shocking how bad the Raiders have been this season, and the stink, unfortunately, has trickled down to their otherwise stellar kicker. After starting the season averaging just over 10 points per game, Carlson has ten total points in his last three, including just two extra points last week against the Colts. His K Score this week is the best among kickers, and he should bounce back against the Broncos, assuming Derek Carr and the Raiders offense can get it going.

Kicker Rankings

*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Chiefs rank 2nd in red zone efficiency; therefore, Harrison Butker has an RZ EFF score of 30. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.

**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.

Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.

Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 10.

Wil Lutz (NO) vs. LA Rams: 34% roster percentage on Yahoo

I am going back to the well again with Lutz now that the Saints are playing back home in the Superdome against the reeling Rams. Cooper Kupp is out, Matthew Stafford is still in concussion protocol, and the Rams boast the fourth-best red zone defense despite being subpar. Look for Lutz to bounce back with a floor of eight points and a chance for over double digits.

Greg Joseph (MIN) vs. Dallas: 17% roster percentage on Yahoo

The missed extra point that helped extend the incredible game between the Bills and Vikings was a disappointment for Joseph managers, but he still managed eight points and should deliver another solid game in what could be another high-scoring game this week.

Prediction Review

Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.

Wil Lutz (NO) @ Pittsburgh: 31% roster percentage on Yahoo

ECR Rank: 12
My Rank: 11
Week 19 Finish: 8

In a low-scoring week overall for the position, Lutz managed five points in a disappointing game by the Saints. While it was not a great showing, he did outscore Carlson, Butker, and Koo on the week.

Brandon McManus (DEN) @ Tennessee: 17% roster percentage on Yahoo

ECR Rank: 14
My Rank:9
Week 10 Finish: T20

The K Score indicated a low-scoring game between two teams with above-average red zone defenses. The score proved to be even more low scoring than anticipated, and McManus was held to just four fantasy points.

Waiver Wired

Top Add

Nick Folk (NE) vs. NYJ: 47% roster percentage on Yahoo

Folk is coming off the bye and playing the same Jets team he scored 21 points against back in Week 8. I have Folk as a top-5 play this week, and he could be the top-scoring kicker the rest of the way.

Other players to consider:

Greg Joseph (MIN) vs. Dallas: 17% roster percentage on Yahoo

Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFKickerGuy.