Week 13 is shaping up to be a solid week for fantasy kickers, as six players enter the week with a K Score of 28 or less. Justin Tucker, the top-performing kicker on the season, boasts a K Score of just 20 with the Denver Broncos and their strong red zone defense heading to M&T Bank Stadium.
Tyler Bass, the second-overall scoring kicker on the season, heads to New England to take on Bill Belichick and the Patriots’ seventh-ranked red zone defense. I wrote earlier in the season that Bass was not a great fantasy option at that time because Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense were too good in the red zone. Since that time, the Bills have fallen to 19th in red zone efficiency, and Bass has quickly risen near the top of the leaderboard.
Of the six players with a K Score of under 30, the one that gives me the most pause is Nick Folk of the Patriots. One of the leading factors for a disappointing performance is a negative game script created by the opposing team’s offense. Although the Bills have struggled as of late on offense, Vegas has Buffalo as a six-point favorite on the road. I am not saying Folk is not a player worth starting, and I still have him in my top 12, but don’t be surprised if he does not live up to his elite K Score.
Week 12 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Matthew Wright (PIT) @ Indianapolis: 6% roster percentage on Yahoo
For the second-straight week, Wright graces the stud list with 13 fantasy points against the Colts after his 13-point performance last week against the Bengals. In my primer to start the season, I wrote about how kickers on teams with rookie quarterbacks tend to get more action due to rookies struggling in the red zone. I believe this is part of the success of Wright, with Kenny Pickett under center. However, Wright’s inaccuracy over his career makes me hesitant to start him in fantasy. I have him ranked higher this week than consensus, but he is not a top-12 player.
Jason Sanders (MIA) vs. Houston: 25% roster percentage on Yahoo
A kicker facing the Texans made the stud performers list for the second week in a row. This week it is veteran Jason Sanders of the Dolphins, who managed 13 fantasy points in a 30-15 blowout win on Sunday. Sanders has just three games of over 10 fantasy points on the season but could do it again this week on the road against the 49ers. Will there be a third-straight week of a kicker facing the Texans on this list? Here’s looking at you, Cade York.
Week 12 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Brett Maher (DAL) vs. NY Giants: 73% roster percentage on Yahoo
This one was a bit of a shocker, as Maher was playing indoors with a positive game script and a K Score of 41. Maher made all four extra points on the day but pulled a 40-yard attempt to the right. Had he made the kick, he would have posted eight points and finished in the top 15 on the week.
Kicker Rankings
Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
1 | 1 | Justin Tucker | BAL | vs. DEN | -6.5 | 41 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 20 | 43F, 5 MPH Wind |
2 | 5 | Jason Myers | SEA | at LAR | -3 | 42 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 21 | Dome |
3 | 2 | Tyler Bass | BUF | at NE | -6 | 46 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 22 | 36F, 10 MPH Wind |
4 | 7 | Daniel Carlson | LV | vs. LAC | 3 | 51 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 27 | Dome |
5 | 3 | Harrison Butker | KC | at CIN | -3 | 51 | 6 | 26 | 1 | 33 | 45F, 2 MPH Wind |
6 | 10 | Ryan Succop | TB | vs. NO | -6.5 | 40 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 28 | TBD |
7 | 4 | Brett Maher | DAL | vs. IND | -8.5 | 44 | 22 | 28 | 13 | 63 | Dome |
8 | 6 | Evan McPherson | CIN | vs. KC | 3 | 51 | 32 | 30 | 6 | 68 | 45F, 2 MPH Wind |
9 | 9 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | vs. PIT | -1.5 | 42 | 17 | 23 | 27 | 67 | Dome |
10 | 11 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | at LV | -3 | 51 | 31 | 15 | 14 | 60 | Dome |
11 | 8 | Nick Folk | NE | vs. BUF | 6 | 46 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 26 | 36F, 10 MPH Wind |
12 | 12 | Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | at MIN | 3.5 | 41 | 26 | 16 | 22 | 64 | Dome |
13 | 13 | Graham Gano | NYG | vs. WAS | 1 | 42 | 13 | 21 | 20 | 54 | 45F,Light Wind |
14 | 18 | Cade York | CLE | at HOU | -5.5 | 45 | 11 | 22 | 5 | 38 | Dome |
15 | 24 | Chase McLaughlin | IND | at DAL | 8.5 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 26 | 39 | Dome |
16 | 25 | Joey Slye | WAS | at NYG | -1 | 42 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 40 | 45F,Light Wind |
17 | 20 | Brandon McManus | DEN | at BAL | 6.5 | 41 | 16 | 0 | 25 | 41 | 43F, 5 MPH Wind |
18 | 14 | Jake Elliott | PHI | vs. TEN | -6.5 | 45 | 8 | 31 | 4 | 43 | 45F, 6 MPH Wind |
19 | 15 | Jason Sanders | MIA | at SF | 4.5 | 47 | 18 | 25 | 3 | 46 | 53F, Rain, Light Wind |
20 | 23 | Matthew Wright | PIT | at ATL | 1.5 | 42 | 24 | 7 | 28 | 59 | Dome |
21 | 16 | Greg Joseph | MIN | vs. NYJ | -3.5 | 41 | 9 | 20 | 17 | 46 | Dome |
22 | 28 | Riley Patterson | JAC | at DET | 1 | 49 | 28 | 14 | 9 | 51 | Dome |
23 | 21 | Mason Crosby | GB | at CHI | -2.5 | 44 | 27 | 11 | 16 | 54 | 30F, 11 MPH Wind |
24 | 27 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | vs. CLE | 5.5 | 45 | 21 | 2 | 32 | 55 | Dome |
25 | 17 | Robbie Gould | SF | vs. MIA | -4.5 | 47 | 29 | 17 | 10 | 56 | 53F, Rain, Light Wind |
26 | 22 | Michael Badgley | DET | vs. JAC | -1 | 49 | 19 | 30 | 8 | 57 | Dome |
27 | 19 | Wil Lutz | NO | at TB | 6.5 | 40 | 25 | 18 | 15 | 58 | TBD |
28 | 29 | Cairo Santos | CHI | vs. GB | 2.5 | 44 | 20 | 19 | 24 | 63 | 30F, 11 MPH Wind |
29 | 26 | Matt Gay | LAR | vs. SEA | 3 | 42 | 23 | 10 | 31 | 64 | Dome |
30 | 30 | Caleb Shudak | TEN | at PHI | 6.5 | 45 | 12 | 27 | 29 | 68 | 45F, 6 MPH Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker‘s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Chiefs rank 3rd in red zone efficiency; Harrison Butker has an RZ EFF score of 29. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker‘s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be excellent players in Week 11.
Brandon McManus (DEN) @ Carolina: 23% roster percentage on Yahoo
McManus posted 11 points against the Raiders last week and looks primed for another solid week on the road against a Panthers defense that just held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 13 points. This projects to be a low-scoring game, and McManus should have more than a few opportunities.
Robbie Gould (SF) vs. Tampa Bay: 57% roster percentage on Yahoo
Gould has been up and down this season, but this home matchup against the Saints looks like a great opportunity for fantasy points. Matt Gay just posted ten against New Orleans last week, and the Saints have given up at least two field goals in four of their last five games.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Brandon McManus (DEN) @ Carolina: 23% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 18
My Rank: 7
Week 12 Finish: 25
McManus made a short field goal and an extra point to finish with just four points on the day. Had he made his try of over 50 yards, he would have finished with nine points and a tie for 11th place. It would have also been helpful for Russell Wilson and the Broncos not to be so dreadful on defense. McManus’ leg, accuracy, and the fact that the Broncos stink in the red zone make him an attractive play. But Wilson is just too erratic to trust right now, and McManus is not in consideration as a start.
Robbie Gould (SF) vs. Tampa Bay: 57% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 16
My Rank: 8
Week 12 Finish: T14
Gould posted eight solid fantasy points, with two field goals and an extra point. I anticipated around 10 points for Gould, but the Niners’ offense appeared to be a bit rusty after Monday Night’s blowout win over the Cardinals.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Jason Myers (SEA) vs. Las Vegas: 40% roster percentage on Yahoo
I am keeping Myers as my top add again this week. He has a choice matchup on the road against the Rams and is coming off a 10-point game against the Raiders. Why he is not rostered in most leagues is beyond me.
Other players to consider:
Graham Gano (NYG) vs. Washington: 49% roster percentage on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFKickerGuy.