It’s time for weekly bold predictions.
The point here is that if you follow the consensus, you’re probably going to have a good team. But in order to go from good to great, you have to take some chances. You have to do your homework and figure out where you can zig when the rest of your league (or at least your opponent this week) zags. In short, you need to know how and when to be bold.
We asked our analysts to provide a bold prediction for Week 11. Their answers and justifications are below.
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Week 11 Bold Predictions
Isiah Pacheco rushes for 100 yards and 1 TD vs. the Chargers
After drawing his third consecutive start, the seventh-round rookie totaled 16 carries for 82 yards in Week 10 (59% opportunity share, 56% snap share). He has taken over the early-down role on offense and completely usurped former first-round pick, Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I expect Pacheco to go NUCLEAR versus a LAC defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game and the second-highest yards per attempt (5.4). In any game that Pacheco has seen at least 8 rushing attempts, he has averaged 5.3 yards per carry.
– Andrew Erickson
Jaylen Warren outscores Najee Harris in Week 11
Najee had 20 carries last week (highest total of the season), and now his knee is giving him issues. In PPR formats, Warren already looks like a decent flex play, but it would not surprise me to see Warren get more carries against the Bengals and end up with more receptions and carries than Harris. That would put him squarely in place to outproduce Najee in Week 11.
– Joe Pisapia
Nico Collins has 100 receiving yards and two scores in Week 11
Last week, Collins played 78% of the snaps with a 27% target share (ten targets) and an 80% route run rate. Collins has been used in the intermediate portions of the field with only six deep targets and a minimal red zone role (four red zone targets). The positive for Collins is that the red zone usage could be changing, as he drew three targets inside the 20 last week. Collins will run about 55% of his routes against Kendall Fuller (61.7% catch rate, 115.7 passer rating, per PFF). He can eat Fuller alive this week.
– Derek Brown
Lamar Jackson runs for 100 yards and two TDs against the Panthers
Something about bye weeks puts a pep in Lamar Jackson‘s step. In four career week-after-the-bye games, Jackson has run 79 times for 365 yards and two touchdowns. That works out to 19.8 carries, 91.3 yards and 0.5 TD runs per game. Look for Jackson to run aggressively once again coming out of Baltimore’s Week 10 bye. He’ll pile up more than 100 rushing yards and get a pair of TD runs against the Panthers on Sunday.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Justin Fields will finish as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback for the third week in a row
Over the past month, Fields is No. 1 at the position in expected fantasy points (83.4), actual fantasy points (133.5) and fantasy point overperformance (50.1). In each of the past four weeks, he has been a top-five fantasy quarterback, and Fields has elite Konami Code capability, ranking No. 1 among all quarterbacks with 104-749-6 rushing (per our Fantasy Football Stats Report) and No. 2 in carries inside the five-yard line (9, per our Red Zone Stats Report). After posting horrible passing marks in Weeks 1-3 (15 attempts per game, 3.5 AY/A), Fields has been functional since Week 4 (23.1 attempts, 7.8 AY/A), and the Falcons are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (20.5%, per Football Outsiders) and No. 30 in dropback SR (51.6%, per RBs Don’t Matter). On the ground and through the air, Fields will get his.
– Matthew Freedman
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