Streaming defenses is 10% about evaluating defenses, and 90% about evaluating quarterbacks to target. I don’t think of myself as playing the Bengals defense this week, I’m playing the defense facing Kenny Pickett. As such, the key to success with defenses is keeping track of the QB situations across the league, and we have a few updates this week:
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- Panthers QB PJ Walker suffered a high ankle sprain last week, so Baker Mayfield will start in his place, with Sam Darnold serving as backup. Walker was an undrafted free agent, and it’s to his immense credit that Mayfield and Darnold – drafted first and third overall in 2018 – are downgrades. The Panthers were already a team you could start good defenses against, and that decision just got a little easier.
- Rams QB Matthew Stafford sat out last week with a concussion, giving backup John Wolford the start. I think it’s likely Stafford plays this week in New Orleans, but it’s possible he doesn’t. The Saints are a solid play against Stafford, but they’d go from good to great if Wolford starts again.
- Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is day-to-day with a hamstring injury, which kept him sidelined last week. We don’t know if Murray will play this week – keep an eye on practice reports. Colt McCoy, who played pretty well last week, is the backup.
- In a surprise move, Colts interim head coach Jeff Saturday named Matt Ryan the starting QB last week, relegating Sam Ehlinger to backup duty after two starts. The Colts’ offensive line keeps letting people through, so either quarterback offers a lot of upside to opposing defenses via sacks.
Week 11 D/ST Projections
There are four teams on bye this week: Jacksonville, Miami, Seattle and Tampa Bay. None of those are particularly attractive targets for defenses, so the streaming landscape isn’t hit that hard. It’s a pretty good week, with my #1 defense at 27% rostership, and a sub-10% option in my top 5. Rostership numbers are form Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | CIN | @PIT | 41.5 | -5 | 18.25 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.11 | 7.61 | 27% |
| 2 | NE | NYJ | 38.5 | -3 | 17.75 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 7.45 | 81% |
| 3 | BAL | CAR | 43.5 | -12 | 15.75 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 7.09 | 66% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 4 | NO | LAR | 39 | -3 | 18 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 6.76 | 64% |
| 5 | WAS | @HOU | 40.5 | -3 | 18.75 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.11 | 6.62 | 4% |
| 6 | BUF | CLE | 47 | -9.5 | 18.75 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.10 | 6.58 | 99% |
| 7 | SF | @ARI | 43.5 | -8 | 17.75 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 6.50 | 92% |
| 8 | PHI | @IND | 44.5 | -7.5 | 18.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 6.46 | 98% |
| The Maybe You Can’t Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 9 | GB | TEN | 42 | -3 | 19.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 6.44 | 43% |
| 10 | DEN | LV | 41.5 | -2.5 | 19.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 6.20 | 56% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 11 | ATL | CHI | 50 | -3 | 23.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 6.18 | 18% |
| 12 | PIT | CIN | 41.5 | 5 | 23.25 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 6.03 | 19% |
| 13 | NYJ | @NE | 38.5 | 3 | 20.75 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.83 | 20% |
| 14 | TEN | @GB | 42 | 3 | 22.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.10 | 5.78 | 80% |
| 15 | LAR | @NO | 39 | 3 | 21 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.78 | 56% |
| 16 | LV | @DEN | 41.5 | 2.5 | 22 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 5.75 | 49% |
| 17 | HOU | WAS | 40.5 | 3 | 21.75 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 5.72 | 1% |
| 18 | NYG | DET | 46 | -3.5 | 21.25 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.65 | 76% |
| 19 | KC | @LAC | 50 | -7 | 21.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 5.56 | 58% |
| 20 | DAL | @MIN | 47.5 | -1 | 23.25 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.49 | 96% |
| 21 | DET | @NYG | 46 | 3.5 | 24.75 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 5.42 | 1% |
| 22 | MIN | DAL | 47.5 | 1 | 24.25 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 5.38 | 30% |
| 23 | CHI | @ATL | 50 | 3 | 26.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 4.95 | 6% |
| 24 | ARI | SF | 43.5 | 8 | 25.75 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 4.92 | 37% |
| 25 | CAR | @BAL | 43.5 | 12 | 27.75 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.10 | 4.63 | 4% |
| 26 | IND | PHI | 44.5 | 7.5 | 26 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.10 | 4.62 | 38% |
| 27 | CLE | @BUF | 47 | 9.5 | 28.25 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 4.46 | 6% |
| 28 | LAC | KC | 50 | 7 | 28.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 3.86 | 25% |
Matchups
- CIN @ PIT: Kenny Pickett has now had back-to-back games with six sacks each. The first was against the excellent Eagles defense, but the second was against the Saints, who are right around average, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The Bengals have a better defense than the Saints, so I’m all aboard this week. We’re only 6 games in to Pickett’s career as a starter, but the kind of sack numbers he’s putting up are hard to ignore for any competent defense, and CIN certainly meets that standard.
- NE vs NYJ: Even though Zach Wilson and the Jets have been winning, they’ve been doing it without putting up all that many points. That trend should continue this week against one of the better defenses in the league, the Patriots. Multi-turnover games aren’t the norm for Wilson, but they are on the table – as illustrated by the last time he faced New England (in Week 8), wherein he threw three interceptions.
- BAL vs CAR: PJ Walker is out this week with a high ankle sprain, so Baker Mayfield will start for the Panthers, with Sam Darnold serving as backup. This is good news for Baltimore. Excluding Week 9 when they both played, the Panthers have averaged 18.6 points in five games with Baker, and 21.0 in five games with Walker. Baker also took sacks at double the rate of Walker.
- NO vs LAR: Matthew Stafford sat out last week with a concussion, but I’m expecting him to play against New Orleans. The Rams offense just hasn’t been scary with Stafford this season, exceeding 20 points only twice. The Saints defense has had their issues (especially with respect to penalties), but they’re better against passing than against rushing, and the Rams run the ball on just 35% of plays, which is third-lowest in the league. For context, the most run-heavy team (Chicago) runs about 60% of the time, and the league median is about 42%.
- WAS @ HOU: Davis Mills continues to be one of the best DST targets in the league. He’s good for 3-4 sacks and 1-2 turnovers in most games, and the offense can’t really score points – their only win was 13-6. Washington profiles as a pass-funnel defense: they’re one of the best run defenses in the league, but below average against the pass. I’m not really worried about Mills scoring many points through the air, but I am excited for the Commanders to force him to throw, creating more opportunities for the aforementioned sacks and turnovers.
- BUF vs CLE: Buffalo has the best defense in the league. That doesn’t mean we should ignore matchups entirely, but it does mean a below-average offense like Cleveland’s isn’t anywhere near making us think about benching the Bills.
- SF @ ARI: This is kind of a tough one. Kyler Murray missed last week with a hamstring injury that he’s still dealing with. We don’t know if he’ll play in Week 11. If Colt McCoy starts, you should be starting the 49ers too. The tough part is that this game is on Monday night. Hopefully we’ll know Murray’s status sooner in the week, but I don’t think it would actually be a disaster to play SF against Murray. Murray’s legs are a big part of why he’s dangerous, but if he’s playing hobbled, he becomes a lot less scary. As is common for hero quarterbacks, Murray is liable to take a sack rather than throw the ball away as he tries to escape the pocket, and the 49ers are top-5 in sacks per game.
- PHI @ IND: Controversial interim Colts head coach Jeff Saturday re-installed Matt Ryan as the starting QB last week, and it worked out. I don’t expect it to work against the Eagles, who are among the best teams in football on both sides of the ball. In particular, they’re one of the top teams for sacks. In his career with the Falcons Ryan didn’t take that many sacks, but earlier this season with the Colts, he did. That pattern should resume this week against the Eagles defense.
- GB vs TEN: Despite being 6-3, the Titans offense doesn’t score that many points. Three of their wins have come with fewer than 20 points, and their highest mark of the season is 24. Their run-first offense doesn’t create a lot of opportunities for turnovers and sacks. This play is really all about the low points projection – if you can’t find something better, Green Bay probably holding Tennessee under 20 points is a reasonable backup plan.
- DEN vs LV: The Raiders are the only team to exceed 20 points against the Broncos this season. Denver’s other opponents have averaged under 15 points per game. While the Raiders putting up 32 points against them in Week 4 is impressive, I don’t see any reason it should happen again. This is a great defense against a below-average offense, albeit one without much sack/turnover upside.
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