Fitz’s Week 11 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2022 Fantasy Football)

Fitz’s Week 11 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2022 Fantasy Football)

The NFL has moved this weekend’s Browns-Bills game from Orchard Park, N.Y., to Detroit because of a potentially historic snow event threatening the Buffalo area. Not only is Buffalo supposed to get multiple feet of snow, but the city is expected to be buffeted by winds of 20-30 mph on Sunday.

With Browns-Bills now being played indoors, we don’t have to be concerned with weather effects. But let’s talk about weather anyway, because we know there are going to be inclement conditions for some games in the weeks to come.

I’m a fade-the-weather guy. Fantasy football weather effects are usually minimal, but weather overreaction among fantasy managers is maximal. When people ask me whether to fade a wide receiver playing in wind conditions that wouldn’t even ruffle your hair, they can’t see me rolling my eyes as I type “No.”

Generally, I only adjust player rankings based on three types of weather:

  • Sustained winds of 20 mph or higher
  • Torrential rain
  • Heavy snow

I’m confident that I can accurately throw Nerf football 20-25 yards to my son in a 15 mph wind, and I have a strand of linguine for an arm. We’re supposed to worry about Aaron Rodgers being able to accurately zip a regulation football to Allen Lazard in a 15 mph wind? Puh-lease.

The weather conditions in Buffalo are going to be much more severe and almost certainly would have deterred passing. I was ready to downgrade the QBs, WRs and TEs in Browns-Bills and slightly upgrade the RBs.

But unless winds reach a sustained 20 mph, or there’s heavy rain, or there’s enough snow to pile up on the field, I won’t factor weather into my rankings. Don’t let mild winds or light rain trick you into making suboptimal lineup decisions in late November and December.

As always, feel free to use the tiered rankings below as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases. Rankings are based on half-point PPR scoring.

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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice

QUARTERBACKS

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Daniel Jones has topped the 200-yard mark only twice all season, but he has a tasty Week 11 matchup against a Lions defense giving up 266.1 passing yards per game. The Lions have also given up the second-most rushing yards to quarterbacks, and Jones is an aggressive runner. He’s a low-end QB1 option this week.

Kyler Murray (hamstring) returned to practice on Thursday, which would seem to bide well for his chances of starting against the 49ers despite reports that he could miss a second straight week. I’m assuming that if the Cardinals clear Murray to play, they’re confident his mobility won’t be limited. If he starts for the Cardinals, he starts for me in leagues where I have him rostered.

Since Christian McCaffrey joined the 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo‘s scoring average has gone from 15.4 fantasy points per game to 17.0 FPPG. Handsome Jimmy has a Monday-night date with a Cardinals defense giving up 19.7 FPPG to opposing QBs, seventh-most in the league.

It’s hard to get excited about the Denver passing game, especially since the Broncos could be without Jerry Jeudy (ankle) this weekend. But there have been signs of hope for Russell Wilson‘s fantasy value. Since the beginning of October, Wilson has averaged a respectable 247.4 passing yards per game. He’s had at least four rushing attempts in each of his last six games, averaging 19.3 rushing yards per game over that span. This week, Wilson faces a Raiders pass defense that ranks last in the league in DVOA and has given up 22.0 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, second-most in the league behind only the Lions. In his Week 4 matchup against the Raiders, Wilson was a tidy 17-of-25 for 237 yards with two TDs and no INTs. It was the only time Wilson has thrown multiple TD passes all season.

Marcus Mariota is averaging a respectable 16.2 fantasy points per game, but his running ability is driving most of the value. Mariota is completing 61.9% of his throws and averaging 174.7 passing yards per game. He was so mistake-prone in the Falcons’ Week 10 loss to the lowly Panthers that the risk of an in-game benching now makes Mariota a dicey fantasy option. The Falcons aren’t likely to stay in the playoff chase much longer, and they’re going to want to take a look at rookie QB Desmond Ridder before the regular season ends.

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RUNNING BACKS

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With Khalil Herbert landing on injured reserve, David Montgomery becomes a much more comfortable fantasy option. His waning usage in the passing game is still a concern, but at least he’s a good bet for 15-plus carries against the Falcons.

Fight the urge to give in to recency bias with Miles Sanders. What are the two ways in which things could go bad for Sanders in any given game aside from injury? (1) A rare unfavorable game script. (2) Jaylen Hurts poaching Sanders at the goal line. Well, both of those things happened in Week 10. The Eagles ran only 46 offensive plays against the Commanders (fewer than the Commanders ran in the first half alone), and Hurts poached Sanders with a 1-yard touchdown run early in the game. Sanders is averaging 15.9 carries a game, he’s running behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, and he’s going to get run-friendly game scripts more often than not. The Eagles are probably going to have a favorable game script this week against the mediocre Colts. Indy’s run defense is fifth in DVOA, but the Colts have allowed the 12th most rushing yards and the third-most rushing attempts to RBs.

Is D’Andre Swift still not 100% healthy, or do the Lions simply like Jamaal Williams more? Swift has been dealing with shoulder and ankle injuries for most of the season. His snap shares the last two weeks have been 16% and 31%. Remember how popular Williams seemed to be among his coaches and teammates when the Lions were featured on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” over the summer? Williams was destined to be more than a mere Swift handcuff, but few of us envisioned Williams completely leapfrogging Swift on the depth chart. It’s possible we see a big usage bump for Swift once he’s deemed 100% healthy. I still have Williams ranked well ahead of him and think that Williams is a safe play for fantasy and Swift isn’t, but Swift is still flex-worthy in deeper leagues

Isiah Pacheco should probably be in fantasy lineups this week. Clyde Edwards-Helaire played four only snaps against the Jaguars last week. Chiefs HC Andy Reid says the Chiefs’ backfield is still a three-man operation and that game circumstances dictated a smaller role for CEH in Week 10. Maybe that’s true and Pacheco played a season-high 35 snaps simply because he’s the designated closer. (The Chiefs built a 20-0 first-half lead.) But it sure feels like there’s a paradigm shift going on here. I don’t know if Pacheco will have a snap share above 50% for a second straight week, but he’s probably going to get a dozen or more carries against a bad Chargers run defense that’s giving up 5.7 yards per carry to RBs.

Washington RBs Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson are both low-end RB2s against a marshmallow-soft Houston run defense that’s giving up 156.2 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry to running backs. The Texans have also yielded a league-high 13 TD runs to RBs.

Perhaps we shouldn’t be so eager to throw our arms around James Conner after the Cardinals gave him a 96% snap share in Week 10 and then released backup Eno Benjamin earlier this week. Conner had 21-69-2 rushing vs. the Rams last Sunday to tie for RB4 on the week in half-PPR scoring. But the Cardinals’ running game has stunk this year. Arizona RBs are collectively averaging 74.3 rushing yards per game and have seven TD runs in 10 games. The Arizona offensive line ranks 25th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards run-blocking metric, and PFF grades the Cardinals 31st in run-blocking. This week, the Cardinals are facing a 49ers run defense that ranks third in DVOA and has allowed a league-low 566 rushing yards to RBs. Fade Conner in a nightmarish matchup.

Steelers HC Mike Tomlin says Najee Harris is dealing with a knee issue. Harris had a foot issue coming out of the preseason, so it’s possible poor health is among the reasons he’s been a disappointment this season. Harris looked pretty good against the Saints this week, falling one yard short of his first 100-yard rushing game of the season, but I’m still not eager to endorse him. His backup, Jaylen Warren, had 9-37-0 rushing last week and has caught eight passes over his last three games. Harris is a high-end RB3 this week vs. the Bengals. Warren’s usage in the passing game raises his floor and makes him a high-end RB4.

It’s possible Elijah Mitchell will continue to have standalone fantasy value as a backup to Christian McCaffrey. Mitchell had 18-89-0 rushing last week vs. the Chargers. But don’t get too exuberant about Mitchell’s value. He was facing a terrible Chargers run defense, and he carried the ball on a hefty 72% of his 25 snaps.

WIDE RECEIVERS

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Since Week 4, DeVonta Smith has averaged just 7.5 yards per catch. Smith’s average depth of target last year was 13.9 yards; this year it’s 7.9 yards. But the injury to Eagles TE Dallas Goedert injury is probably going to funnel more targets to Smith — especially since he’s being targeted on shorter routes so often. He’s already on pace for 87 catches, and with the Goedert injury, maybe Smith makes a run at a 100-catch season. Start him this week even in a less-than-ideal matchup against the Colts.

Garrett Wilson has gone for 6-115-0 and 8-92-0 over his last two games, and he had a 36% target share against the Bills last Sunday. The rookie has the route-running savvy of a 10-year veteran, so don’t fear Wilson’s Week 11 matchup against Patriots CB Jonathan Jones. Wilson has become the Jets’ clear No. 1 receiver, and while it’s not a high-powered passing attack, Wilson is nonetheless an every-week fantasy starter.

Mike Williams (ankle) and Keenan Allen (hamstring) were expected to return to practice this week, and they both have a chance to play Sunday night against the Chiefs. I’d feel reasonably confident about starting Williams, less so about starting Allen. Hamstring injuries are tricky, and Allen’s has required an extraordinarily long recovery period. I also worry about Allen facing a tough individual matchup against Chiefs slot corner L’Jarius Sneed.

Diontae Johnson is a fine possession receiver, but his role was far more valuable with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback — even a badly decaying version of Big Ben — than it is with Kenny Pickett at QB. Johnson hasn’t scored a touchdown or had a 100-yard game this season. Heck, he’s only had one game with more than 63 receiving yards. With Bengals CB Chidobe Awuzie out for the year with a torn ACL, Johnson is going to run nearly all of his routes against either Eli Apple or rookie Cam Taylor-Britt. Those are favorable matchups, but I still only have Johnson ranked RB27, one spot behind teammate George Pickens.

New Colts HC Jeff Saturday’s QB switch from Sam Ehlinger to Matt Ryan should help Michael Pittman, but perhaps not as much as Pittman investors would hope. With Ryan back last week, Pittman had nine targets vs. a bad Raiders pass defense but could muster only 53 yards on seven receptions. Ryan’s modus operandi is to throw to the open guy no matter who it is, and Parris Campbell has been coming on lately, getting open on a consistent basis. I don’t know if we can count on Pittman getting eight or more targets every game, and he has a brutal Week 11 matchup against the Eagles’ outside cornerback duo of Darius Slay and James Bradberry, who might be breathing fire after playing a poor Week 10 game against Terry McLaurin and the Commanders.

After playing nine snaps in his Week 9 debut with the Chiefs, Kadarius Toney played 28 snaps in Week 10 and finished with 4-57-1 receiving and 2-33-0 rushing vs. the Jaguars. I have Toney ranked WR32 this week, and that’s based on the assumption that JuJu Smith-Schuster is able to play after sustaining a concussion last week. JuJu wasn’t practicing as of Thursday, and if he’s out, Toney becomes an auto-start this week against the Chargers. Mecole Hardman just went on IR with an abdominal ailment, further enhancing Toney’s usage outlook.

Ben Skowronek has played 81% of the Rams’ offensive snaps this season. There’s no substitute for the injured Cooper Kupp, but Skowronek might at least be able to approximate Kupp’s usage. (Kupp and Skowronek have an identical 7.1-yard average depth of target this season.) The assumption seems to be that Allen Robinson and Tyler Higbee will pick up most of the slack in Kupp’s absence, but Skowronek might end up getting the biggest value boost. He’s a sneaky flex option this week against a Saints pass defense still missing injured CB Marshon Lattimore.

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TIGHT ENDS

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It appears Dalton Schultz is reasonably healthy again. Hampered by a PCL injury for weeks, Schultz has collected 17-177-1 over his last three games, commanding a 20.4% target share over that stretch. Start him confidently against a Vikings defense giving up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to TEs.

After beginning his NFL career with three strong showings, Greg Dulcich finally laid an egg in Week 10, with 1-11-0 against the Titans on four targets. But fear not, Dulcich stakeholders. The rookie played 71 snaps (an 89% snap share) vs. Tennessee and ran 40 routes on 42 Russell Wilson dropbacks. That’s the sort of usage we’re chasing, even if the surface stats don’t always cooperate. Dulcich is an attractive play this week against a Raiders defense giving up 12.2 half-PPR fantasy points per game to TEs.

You have to figure that the Cooper Kupp injury is going to spike Tyler Higbee‘s target count. Higbee averaged 9.6 targets over the Rams’ first five games, but he’s averaged just 4.3 targets over their last four. Still, I can’t rank Higbee any higher than TE8 in a matchup against the Saints, who have allowed a league-low 6.0 half-PPR fantasy points per game to TEs.

Cole Kmet (thigh) missed practice on Wednesday but got in a limited session on Thursday. After scoring two touchdowns in his first 40 NFL games, Kmet has been on a TD rampage, scoring five touchdowns over the last three weeks. If he’s able to play, consider him a low-end TE1 this week against the Falcons.

Even if Mark Andrews returns from a shoulder injury this week, Ravens rookie Isaiah Likely could still be a reasonable option for fantasy managers desperate for help at TE. Likely has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games, drawing 12 targets over that span. With WR Rashod Bateman out for the season, the Ravens are going to lean heavily on their tight ends as pass catchers, and while Andrews is going to get the vast majority of TE targets, there might be enough left over to give Likely TE2 value.

Be careful about plugging Cardinals rookie Trey McBride into your lineups and assuming he’s going to get a target windfall now that Zach Ertz is out for the season. McBride has seen only four targets this year on 204 offensive snaps this year, and he has a difficult Week 11 matchup against the 49ers, who are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to TEs.

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Pat Fitzmaurice

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Pat Fitzmaurice is the managing editor and a fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.

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