The premise behind this article is simple. Identifying fantasy football smash plays – guys that you are either usually starting or are on the FLEX fringe that have massive boom/upside potential above expectation – for the upcoming week.

Embrace these guys, and don’t be afraid to start them over another “safer” option – preferably a higher-ranked option – from my Week 11 fantasy football rankings.

Batter up.

Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)

• Isiah Pacheco is the Chiefs’ early-down starting running back
• After drawing his third consecutive start, the seventh-round rookie totaled 16 carries for 82 yards in Week 10 (59% opportunity share, 56% snap share).
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire finished zero carries (6% snap share). Jerick McKinnon totaled one carry but led the team with eight targets (6-for-56, 38% snap share).
• Pacheco’s work will be limited to rushing, but that’s probably all he will need when up against the Chargers’ horrible run defense in Week 11. The Bolts rank last in yards allowed before contact per attempt and in yards per carry allowed to RBs (5.7).
• In any game that Pacheco has seen at least eight rushing attempts, he has averaged 5.3 yards per carry.
• The Chiefs also have the second-highest implied team total on the main slate (28.25)
• Andy Reid and co. have clear faith in Pacheco even after he lost a fumble in the red zone because the team continued to feed him carries.
• Following the increase in snaps has been a tried-and-true approach to finding breakout RBs, and Pacheco checks off the boxes.

Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)

• 75% of the Steelers’ touchdowns allowed on defense have come through the air this season (5th-highest).
• And no team has allowed more fantasy points per game to slot WRs, than the Steel Curtain.
• Tyler Boyd caught four of seven targets for 33 yards and one TD the last time he played the Steelers (Week 1).
• On the year, Boyd ranks second in slot routes run (302) and third in slot yards (463).
• And over the last 3 games, Boyd and Tee Higgins have seen nearly the same total target volume (21 vs. 20), with Boyd actually leading the roster with 16 catches for 237 receiving yards.

Parris Campbell (WR – IND)

• Parris Campbell (6 for 76 yards and scored) and Michael Pittman (7-for 53 yards) both finished with 9 targets in Week 10.
• Pittman has a 27% target share and 245 receiving yards in his last three games with Matt Ryan at QB.
• Campbell has a 26% target share and 24 catches (8 catches and 68 receiving yards per game) over the same time frame.
• The Colts’ slot WR has averaged 21 fantasy points per game in PPR.
• In three games played without starter slot cornerback Avonte Maddox this season, the Eagles defense has allowed 24 fantasy points per game to slot WRs.

Brian Robinson (RB – WAS)
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)

• The Houston Texans have arguably the league’s worst run defense.
• Last in rushing TD percentage allowed and in fantasy points allowed to RBs this season.
• And their porous run defense is not going unnoticed by their opponents…as they have faced the league’s highest rushing rate.
• With the Commanders’ clear commitment to the run game (8%+ run rate over expectation in the last four weeks), both Washington RBs should be in ALL starting lineups.
• Antonio Gibson (48% snap share) and Brian Robinson (52% snap share) split snaps nearly 50/50 in Week 10, but Robinson operated as the favorite back on early downs. He touted the rock 26 times for 86 yards and 1 rushing goal-line TD but was not targeted.
• AG attempted 14 rushes for 44 yards and scored in the red zone as well, but also added three catches for 14 yards while running a route on 55% of dropbacks.
• Robinson ranks 12th in carries per game this season (15.5).

Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN)

• Dallas’ run defense has been exposed this season – fourth in rushing yards overall allowed, seventh in rushing yards to RBs allowed per game – but the rushing TD totals have not matched the yardage they have given up.
• They have faced, on average, just four rushes per game inside the 5-yard line and allowed just five rushing scores overall as result.
• But they have allowed a rushing score on 50% of their opponents’ attempts inside the 5-yard line (4th-highest).
• All in all, every other team inside the top 5 in terms of rushing yards allowed per game has allowed an average of 14 rushing TDs.
• If Big D continues to give up absurd production on the ground, the rushing TDs will follow in bunches.
• And that could very likely be a huge benefit for Dalvin Cook, who has been a top-15 running back for 5 straight games.
• He has also seen 83% or more of the backfield opportunities in the last two weeks (11 targets, 18 touches/game), completely supplanting No. 2 Alexander Mattison to back-up duties.
• The Vikings will likely need Cook to be productive in this game because they will give up points on their end. They rank 31st in red zone defense this season. Dallas ranks 7th in red zone offense and No. 3 in the metric over the last 3 weeks (83%).
• This game also projects as the fastest game in terms of pace on the main slate.

CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)

• CeeDee Lamb caught 11 passes for 150 yards and two TDs (15 targets, 35% target share) in Week 10. Through 10 weeks, the Cowboys’ No. 1 WR is tied with DeAndre Hopkins with a league-high 33% target share. He also ranks fourth in slot receptions, yards, and targets.
• Great spot for him in Week 11 versus Vikings slot cornerback Chandon Sullivan.
• Minnesota’s inside cornerback has allowed the league’s most receptions and yards while defending the slot this season.
• Overall, the Vikings’ defense allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs, allowing the league’s second-highest yards per attempt (7.9) and fourth-most passing yards per game (263).

Rondale Moore (WR- ARI)

• Rondale Moore will be fine, folks, whether or not Marquise Brown returns in Week 11. A 28% target share over the last three weeks with an average of eight catches for 85 receiving yards. And remember Zach Ertz‘s 18 % target share is also up for grabs.
• The 49ers are allowing nearly twice as many fantasy points per game to slot WRs than perimeters ones (11.9 vs. 21.0)
• Over the last three weeks, the 49ers are the SECOND-WORST team versus slot WRs allowing 26.7 fantasy points per game.
• The massive drop-off coincided with safety Jimmie Ward taking over starting slot duties from Deommodore Lenoir.
• In coverage this season, Ward has allowed a perfect 16 catches on 16 targets for 144 receiving yards and 2 TDs (143.8 passer rating).

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)

• Denver’s red-zone offense continues to struggle even after coming out of their bye week. They failed to reach the red zone in Week 10 versus Tennessee and rank dead last in red-zone scoring percentage (35%).
• They also rank last in points per game (14.6).
• However, they did go 3-for-3 in red-zone scoring back in Week 8 versus the Jaguars.
• And there’s no better spot for their red-zone efficiency to spike than against the Las Vegas Raiders’ reeling defense that ranks dead last in red-zone scoring allowed.
• It’s truly a battle between the moveable Raiders defense against a stoppable Broncos offense.
• The matchup bodes well for Russell Wilson to have a decent fantasy day. The Raiders are a bottom-5 unit in generating pressure.
• And Wilson’s only top-5 QB performance this season came against the Black Hole back in Week 4. He tossed 3 TDs. He has not thrown more than 1 TD in any other game this season.
• With Jerry Jeudy listed day-to-day due to an ankle injury, I’d bet he does not play in Week 11.
• His absence will solidify Courtland Sutton atop the Broncos’ target pecking order.
• In the three games that Jeudy has not played in fully, Sutton owns a 32% target share and 40% air yards share, averaging seven receptions for 95 receiving yards.
• And the last time he played the Raiders, Sutton commanded two red-zone targets and scored his lone TD of the season. Very strong chance he scores in Week 11.

Greg Dulcich (TE – DEN)

• Greg Dulcich concluded Week 10 with just 1 reception for 11 yards on 4 targets. Woof.
• But the usage remained elite, with Dulcich playing 89% of snaps and running a route on 82% of dropbacks.
• The Raiders rank bottom-5 in fantasy points allowed to TEs this season, allowing the fifth-most TDs to the position.
• Start the rookie tight end across all formats.

Darnell Mooney (WR – CHI)

• Darnell Mooney finished with a perfect 4-for-4 (22% target share) and 57 receiving yards while running a route on 96% of Justin Fields‘ dropbacks in Week 10.
• A big game is looming for Mooney, especially with the Atlanta Falcons up next. No team has allowed more fantasy points to WRs than the Falcons this season,
• Third-most in receiving TDs allowed per game to WRs.
• Mooney also leads the Bears with a 25% target share over his last 3 games, averaging 5.3 catches for 57 yards. Saw a red-zone target last week.
• Since Week 4, only Donovan Peoples-Jones has more receiving yards (446) and fewer TDs than Mooney (0 vs. 1).
• And if the late-game Week 10 injury to Cole Kmet sidelines him or limits him (on the injury report this week), that would further open the target floodgates for Chicago’s No. 1 WR.