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Fantasy Football Week 11 Takeaways: Surprises & Disappointments (2022)

Fantasy Football Week 11 Takeaways: Surprises & Disappointments (2022)

I won’t lie, Week 11 was looking a little light on key takeaways initially. It was another week of stagnant offense for many teams across the league — and the fantasy squads built around them. You know it’s not a great sign when one of the top storylines you’re considering involves shifting playing time in the Rams’ putrid backfield.

We didn’t even get the crazy snow game in Buffalo that it looked like we would earlier in the week. We had to settle for some heavy winds in the northeast instead, which isn’t nearly as much fun.

As Scott Pianowski put it, it was one of those weeks where you are “hoping your fantasy opponent underachieved even worse than you did.”

But then we got to the Sunday night game. Like a sip of fresh water in a desert oasis, Chiefs-Chargers gave us a fun back-and-forth game and enough fantasy-relevant happenings to fill a column. Travis Kelce, Kadarius Toney, Isiah Pacheco, Mike Williams and Josh Palmer are all among the names that will come under the microscope this week.

So let’s get to it.

Top Five Surprises

Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott BOTH eat
Pollard put up two top-10 fantasy performances while Elliott was out with a knee injury, but heading into Sunday, it was an open question what the backfield might look like with Zeke back in the fold. We learned prior to kickoff that Elliott would be “eased” back into the mix, and that is more or less what happened from a snap count perspective. But both Dallas backs ended up getting 15 carries and reaching the end zone twice in the blowout victory.

As has become commonplace, Pollard averaged nearly twice as many yards per carry as Elliott, while Pollard was also the much more productive receiver out of the backfield. He’s currently the overall RB1 for Week 11 and is likely to stay there.

We may see Zeke’s snaps tick upward in the weeks ahead, but no matter what Jerry Jones says, it’s hard to see how the Cowboys can put the genie back in the bottle after how incredible Pollard has looked of late. Pollard has proven that he can be a fantasy stud on 15-20 touches per game; anything beyond that is just gravy. As for Zeke, the lack of efficiency makes him very touchdown-dependent and best reserved for RB3/flex duties.

Amari Cooper treats his trip to Detroit like a home game
Entering Week 11, Cooper had scored a touchdown in all five of his home games and gone over 100 receiving yards in three of them. Conversely, he had not scored in any of his four road contests while being held under 35 yards in three of them. Cooper’s Week 11 matchup was scheduled to be played in Buffalo, but thankfully for Cooper and his fantasy managers, the game was moved to Detroit to avoid a snowstorm. He promptly went out and caught eight balls for 112 yards and two scores.

These home/road splits make for a fun narrative, but there’s no real reason to believe they are sticky for fantasy purposes. This isn’t baseball, where park factors are a thing.

The real takeaway when it comes to Cooper is that he has now finished as a top-12 WR five times this season and is up to eighth in fantasy points per game at the position (minimum eight games). Cooper is also one week away from getting Deshaun Watson as his quarterback, and he gets juicy matchups with Baltimore, New Orleans and Washington during the fantasy playoffs. Wheels up.

The Najee Harris resurgence continues
This one is definitely a surprise to me; I honestly didn’t see it coming. From Weeks 1-8, Harris never rushed for more than 74 yards or 4.1 yards per carry — and fell well short of those marks more often than not. But he’s now rushed for at least 90 yards and 4.5 yards per carry in back-to-back games after his 116 scrimmage yard, two touchdown performance against Cincinnati on Sunday. The name of the game with Harris has always been volume, so it may also surprise you to learn that those were his first two games with 20 carries this season.

Rookie Jaylen Warren had looked like the more powerful and explosive Steelers back through the first half of the season, to the point where he had convinced the coaching staff to narrow the gap in playing time between him and Harris. But Harris’ resurgence happened to coincide with Warren leaving Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury, which could mean Harris continues to get heavy workloads like he’s had recently.

For much of the year, Harris was one of the bigger busts in fantasy football (non-injury edition). But now that both his volume and efficiency are trending up again, he could be primed for a big stretch run.

Samaje Perine catches the touchdown bug from Joe Mixon
So it turns out that being the lead back for the Bengals is a pretty good fantasy gig. The last time Cincinnati was in action, Joe Mixon broke the slate and seized the lede of this article with a five-touchdown game against Carolina. But this time around, Mixon exited early with a concussion, opening the door for Perine to do his best Mixon impression, at least in the touchdown department.

Perine only rushed 11 times for 30 yards, but he torched the Steelers as a receiver out of the backfield, hauling in four catches for 52 yards and three scores. That makes it two straight games where a Cincinnati running back has finished top-two at the position (Perine would have been first if not for Pollard). With Chris Evans banged up, Trayveon Williams played a few snaps, but Perine essentially operated as an every-down back in Mixon’s absence.

A tough matchup with Tennessee is on tap next, but based on the recent productivity of this backfield, Perine will be an RB2 by default if Mixon isn’t cleared in time for that contest.

Isiah Pacheco posts Chiefs’ first 100-yard rushing game of 2022
Pacheco managers may not have seen an immediate benefit when he was declared the Chiefs’ “starter” late last month, but the stars are beginning to align for a strong second half for the explosive rookie. After putting up a solid 82-yard effort against the Jaguars last week, Pacheco posted the Chiefs’ first 100-yard rushing game of 2022 on Sunday night. And he did so while his main competition for early-down rushes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, left with an ankle injury.

Even in his best game of the season, Pacheco played fewer snaps than Jerick McKinnon and wasn’t targeted in the passing game. McKinnon has led the backfield in snaps most of this season, but this isn’t a situation that should be analyzed purely in terms of total playing time. McKinnon is going to be the back of choice in passing situations, but Pacheco looks to be carving out a role where he handles around 15 carries per game in one of the league’s best offenses. He hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1, but those touchdowns should come eventually, and his role as the team’s primary rusher will be even more appealing if CEH misses time.

Fantas Football Start-Sit Assistant

Top 5 Disappointments

Mike Williams re-injures ankle after one catch, Josh Palmer answers the call
It’s hard for me to even write about Williams, who looks destined to cost me a victory in a must-win fantasy matchup. But I’ll try.

Big Mike was a fantasy star early in the year while Keenan Allen was sidelined, but then Williams came down with an injury of his own. After missing two games with a high-ankle sprain, Williams declared himself “200 percent” healthy heading into Week 11. Unfortunately, he re-injured the ankle on his first catch of the game — a terrific grab, at that — and did not return.

Both Williams and Allen have now returned from leg injuries only to immediately re-aggravate them, which could just be bad luck but also opens the team up to criticism that they were rushed back too soon. Allen missed two more games after aggravating his hamstring injury, and it’s possible we see a similar thing with Williams.

The good news for Chargers fans is that Allen played well against the Chiefs (five catches, 94 yards) and appeared to make it through the game healthy. Meanwhile, Josh Palmer caught eight balls for 106 yards and two touchdowns, his second game with exactly 10 targets, eight catches and 106 yards in the last three weeks. With Williams potentially looking at another multi-week absence, Palmer is a must-add in leagues where he was dropped and should produce WR2 value whenever Williams and/or Allen are sidelined.

Kadarius Toney hops off the field, and this time it wasn’t for a TD celebration
When Toney hopped into the end zone against the Jaguars last week, it was interpreted by some as a dig on the Giants, who rarely deemed him healthy enough to suit up for them. But when Toney hopped off the field this week, it was because he had suffered another hamstring injury — leaving fantasy managers who took the plunge on him hopping mad. He had one target and zero catches before exiting.

Toney is an incredible talent in an ideal offensive environment, but this game was a reminder of why he is such a maddening fantasy proposition. He’s only managed to play in 15 of a possible 26 games since entering the league last year — and has only cleared 60 receiving yards in two of them. He was once again playing limited snaps before suffering the injury, further demonstrating that he has a boom-or-bust profile in this offense, even when healthy.

Wan’Dale Robinson breakout rudely interrupted by potentially serious knee injury
When the Giants drafted Robinson in the second round of last spring’s draft, it was a bit of a head-scratching move because they already had a similar player in Toney. The move began to make more sense when it became clear that the Giants didn’t trust Toney to stay healthy or be consistently productive, but they seem to be running into the same trouble with his replacement.

After injuring his knee in Week 1 and missing the next four games, Robinson had been slowly working his way into New York’s depleted WR rotation. The fact that the process took some time isn’t overly surprising, considering Robinson is a rookie.

At long last, we got our Wan’Dale Robinson breakout game this week, as he hauled in nine catches for 100 yards. But when it comes to Giants pass-catchers, we are not allowed to have nice things. Robinson injured his knee late in the contest, and the early word is that the injury could be significant. It’s worth holding Robinson until we learn all the unfortunate details, but there is a good chance that he is droppable by the time that we need to set our waivers on Tuesday night.

Bears, Falcons deliver shootout, but Justin Fields and Kyle Pitts both suffer injuries
When I am working on my weekly fantasy rankings, one of the first things I look at is the over/under and implied point totals. So it caught my eye last week that a matchup between the two most run-heavy teams in the league, Chicago and Atlanta, was projected to rival Chiefs-Chargers for the week’s highest-scoring game. It turns out Vegas was on the money yet again, as the final score line of 27-24 landed within a field goal of the game’s projected 48.5-point total.

The high scoreline meant good things for underrated QB streamer Marcus Mariota and under-appreciated bell cow David Montgomery, but the most notable fantasy takeaway involved the big-name players who exited with injuries.

Fields has been nothing short of a fantasy savior over the last month, and his injury would be featured much higher up in this article if there was a lot of reason to believe it is severe. He was carted off for evaluation after the game, and Bears coach Matt Eberflus indicated that an update on his quarterback’s status won’t come until Wednesday. It’s not inconceivable that the Bears could decide to play it safe and rest Fields through their Week 14 bye, but the fact he was able to play through the injury is a promising sign that he can avoid missing time.

As for Pitts, his name is a lot bigger than his fantasy production at this point. But fantasy managers who are still holding onto him can take solace in the fact that he appears to have avoided a ligament tear in his knee.

Lamar Jackson finishes outside top-12 QBs…again
I just got done talking about how Kyle Pitts is living more off reputation than production. Is it time to have the same conversation about Lamar Jackson?

To be fair, Jackson remains one of the most dynamic players in the entire league, and he’s had to deal with a depleted group of pass-catchers (due to both injuries and lack of talent) all year long. That being said, Lamar has not finished among the top-eight fantasy QBs since Week 3, which isn’t what fantasy managers were hoping for when they spent an early pick on him. He’s topped 210 passing yards and thrown multiple touchdowns just once during that stretch, and while he has continued to be productive as a runner, he isn’t having the ceiling rushing performances that he had in years past and the beginning of this season.

Jackson’s rushing prowess alone all but ensures he’ll be ranked as a QB1 each week, and rightfully so. But it can no longer be taken as a matter of faith that he is a top-five fantasy QB when it has been two months since the last time he reached those heights.

CTAs

Key Stats

Treylon Burks has a target share of at least 35% in three of his first six career games. If Burks’ seven-catch, 111-yard breakthrough had come on Sunday instead of Thursday, it would have been featured more prominently in this article. The Titans haven’t had a viable fantasy receiver all year, but Burks is the kind of special talent who could change that in a hurry. He’ll be one of the week’s best waiver wire adds.

Kyren Williams led Rams RBs in snaps (55%) and route participation (68%). The Rams are a total train wreck right now, but starting running backs don’t grow on trees in fantasy football. With “starter” Darrell Henderson mysteriously removed from the game after the opening drive, Williams served as the team’s main pass-catching back while Cam Akers was the primary rusher. You could be forgiven for avoiding this situation entirely, but Williams is now the most desirable one to roster, given that there is probably still some meat on the bone in terms of his rushing role.

DeVonta Smith had a season-high 39% target share this week. Given the Eagles’ lack of viable tight end replacements, Smith is the biggest winner in terms of vacated targets with Dallas Goedert out. Smith’s 6-78 stat line against Indianapolis doesn’t really stand out, but the usage is there for big weeks moving forward.

Terry McLaurin‘s target share is nearly twice as high with Taylor Heinicke (32.1%) as it was with Carson Wentz (16.5%). Heinicke looks like the best quarterback for the Commanders, and he’s definitely the best quarterback for McLaurin’s fantasy value.

Rhamondre Stevenson has seen at least a 22% of the targets in four straight games. Damien Harris returned and actually out-gained Stevenson this week, but Stevenson still dominated the snaps and the all-important pass-catching work. He’s going to be just fine.

Russell Wilson is the first QB to fail to throw a TD against the Raiders this season. If you were holding out hope like I was that a Charmin-soft schedule could save Russ’s season, think again. If he can’t cook against the Raiders, he can’t cook against anybody.

Top Takeaways

Travis Kelce is the biggest weekly difference-maker in fantasy football. Kelce is one of the best tight ends of all time, and he’s currently enjoying the best fantasy season of his career at age 33. He’s already matched his career high of 11 touchdowns and the calendar still reads November. There is no greater weekly advantage in fantasy football than putting Kelce into your tight end slot.

Jamaal Williams: RB1? Williams added three more touchdowns to his shopping cart on Sunday, and his 12 rushing TDs on the year are three times as many as the Packers and Bucs have as a team. He’s led the Lions backfield in snaps in seized the lede of this article and has unsurprisingly handled virtually all of the touches seized the lede of this article. Williams typically only plays 40-50% of the snaps, but he gets fed the ball a lot when he’s on the field: He has at least 15 touches in seven of the eight games since Week 3 (he got 13 in Week 8).

Williams is now all the way up to the RB10 on the season. While I still get questions about whether to start Williams or D’Andre Swift, the better question at this point is whether Williams should be viewed as an RB1 moving forward. His limited usage may not quite justify that designation — TD regression is sure to hit to some extent. But at this rate, he is absolutely shaping up as an RB1 for the pivotal weeks of the fantasy playoffs, when he gets mouth-watering matchups with Carolina (Week 16) and Chicago (Week 17).

Alright, that’s it for this week. If you like what you see here, you can get more of my thoughts on waiver wire pickups, buy-low/sell-high candidates, rest-of-season player values, and more by subscribing to seized the lede of this article and going to ROSrankings.com. I’m also always happy to help you sort through injury-related conundrums or anything else fantasy-related on Twitter @andrew_seifter.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.

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