Fantasy Football Week 12 Lineup Land Mines: Thanksgiving Edition (Week 12)
The premise behind this article is simple. Identifying fantasy football land mines – a guy you’re probably thinking about starting, but here’s why he might be a land mine that explodes your starting lineup – for the upcoming week.
Proceed with caution, and don’t be afraid to pivot to another option – preferably a higher-ranked option from my Week 11 fantasy football rankings.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Lineup Land Mines
Keep in mind, these fantasy football land mines are guys you’re probably thinking about starting. But here’s why he might be a land mine that explodes your starting lineup — for the upcoming week.
- D’Andre Swift carried the ball 5 times for 20 yards and also scored in Week 11. Swift also caught all 3 of his targets for 12 yards.
- But no. 3 RB Justin Jackson had more carries than Swift (9 for 66) and played more snaps (37% vs 31%). They also ran the same number of routes (33%).
- The coaching staff seems unlikely to change how they feel about using Swift in a full-time role. Healthy or not.
- And that likely won’t change unless there is an injury to Williams with the Lions playing on Thursday. You’d hope that negative game script would thrust Swift into a larger role, but the fact that he is splitting receiving duties with Justin Jackson suggests otherwise.
- Even in a great matchup – Bills have allowed 5.6 yards per carry and 522 rushing yards to RBs since Week 8 – Swift has an extremely shaky floor without any guaranteed volume to bolster his fantasy production.
- The high yards per carry allowed from Buffalo is also based heavily on a few big runs they have given up recently. On the year, they rank No.1 in fewest rushing yards allowed before contact (0.98).
- Since the bye week four weeks ago, Swift is RB33 in expected fantasy points and has averaged 7.5 touches per game.
- Averaged just 10.5 rushing yards, but has salvaged fantasy production with three touchdowns and 3 catches per game (13% target share).
- The Patriots pass defense ranks first in EPA.
- They have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs.
- Adam Thielen has just a 14% target share since T.J. Hockenson joined the team.
- His best weekly finish since the trade is WR26.
- He has averaged 4 catches for 59 yards.
- Thielen is touchdown-or-bust.
- The Patriots defense ranks 6th in red-zone defense.
- And they have allowed the second-fewest TDs to WRs per game this season (0.4)
- Devin Singletary totaled 18 carries for 86 yards and scored while adding in two catches in Week 11.
- 57% opportunity share. 80% route participation. 72% snap share.
- Over the past two weeks, he has 7 carries inside the 10-yard line (4 in Week 11) and 3 rushing TDs.
- Josh Allen has zero carries inside the 10-yard line.
- It’s clear that Singletary is still viewed as the team’s RB1, and the increased looks inside the red zone have expanded his fantasy ceiling.
- But rookie James Cook looked spry in Week 11, rushing for 86 yards on 11 carries on his largest snap share since Week 2.
- His 13 backfield opportunities were also a season-high.
- Still very possible the rookie gets more involved as the season progresses, even though he had just 3 carries in the 1st half.
- Singletary looks to be in another great spot this week versus the Detroit Lions, but be warned that their defense has not been the same pushover it’s been to start the season.
- Over the last 3 weeks, the Lions have limited RB fantasy production to the Dolphins, Bears, Packers and Giants.
- They have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to RBs (14.3 points per game).
- Instead, they have allowed the second-most rushing (64) and passing yards (328) to QBs.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.