Fantasy Football Smash City: Week 12 (2022)
The premise behind this article is simple. Identifying fantasy football smash plays – guys that you are either usually starting or are on the FLEX fringe that have massive boom/upside potential above expectation – for the upcoming week.
Embrace these guys, and don’t be afraid to start them over another “safer” option – preferably a higher-ranked option – from my Week 12 fantasy football rankings.
Fantasy Football Smash City: Week 12
- The Texans are allowing the league’s second-highest rate of rushing TDs and the most fantasy points per game to RBs.
- Miami has the second-highest implied team total on the slate (29.75)
- Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed 17 times for 119 yards and 1 rushing TD in Week 10 completely cementing himself as the team’s locked-and-loaded RB1.
- He was targeted 5 times (59% opportunity share, 19 touches) and played 61% of the snaps.
- Raheem Mostert carried the ball just 8 times for 65 yards and also scored a rushing TD (28% snap share). Mostert also caught all four of his targets for 22 yards.
- However, Wilson ran more routes (53%) making him the frontrunner for more receiving usage moving forward.
- Since he joined the team in Week 9, Wilson has 26 carries for 170 yards with a 13% target share (5 catches for 45 yards) and two total TDs.
- Mostert has 17 carries for 91 yards with a 9.5% target share (4 catches for 22 yards) and two total TDs.
- Las Vegas owns the second-worst red zone defense.
- The perfect cure for Seattle’s 26th-ranked red-zone offense to thrive.
- It’s also the perfect cure for rookie running back Kenneth Walker to get firmly back on track after a subpar outing in Germany versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
- He had just 10 carries for just 17 yards.
- However, he made up for a lack of rushing with work as a receiver: 6 for 55 on 8 targets (24% target share, 73% route participation). He also seized a 100% opportunity share while playing 87% of the snaps.
- KW3 is set to go NUCLEAR vs a reeling Raiders defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to RBs since their bye week (33 per game).
- The Bears are allowing the league’s highest rate of rushing TDs and 7th-most rushing yards per game.
- And all signs point to Michael Carter operating as the RB1 in the Jets backfield.
- The second-year running back led with a 45% opportunity share, 50% snap share and 38% route participation.
- There’s also no ignoring Carter’s newfound upside with quarterback Mike White under center.
- In three of White’s starts last season, Carter averaged 9.6 targets, 7 receptions, and 119 yards from scrimmage.
- James Conner maintained bellcow status in the team’s MNF loss to the 49ers.
- He earned 95% of the backfield opportunities prior to garbage time, totaled 16 touches. 14 for 42 on the ground (1 TD) and 2 for 12 through the air on 5 targets.
- 4 of Keaontay Ingram‘s 5 carries came when the both team pulled their starters.
- With a heavy workload locked-in and Kyler Murray expected to return, Conner should be uber-productive versus a bad Chargers run defense.
- They rank dead last in yards allowed before contact per attempt (1.93) and yards per attempt allowed (5.8) this season.
- This matchup has the SLOWEST projected pace of play among all games in Week 12.
- The Eagles should be able to run the ball at will with the No. 2 most favorable OL/DL matchup per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart.
- Green Bay is facing the third-most rushing attempts per game inside the 5-yard line (20.0) this season.
- They have been shredded on the ground all season, facing the league’s second-most rushing attempts and fourth-most rushing yards.
- Sets the stage for Miles Sanders to post a bounce-back effort after he went 13-47-0 rushing in Week 11.
- He has struggled the last two weeks in two tougher matchups (Washington, Indianapolis), but Green Bay’s run defense hardly presents much of a threat.
- Over the last four games Sanders has averaged 13 carries for 68 yards (5.2 yards per carry). Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell have combined for just over 5 carries per game.
- Eagles are a bottom-10 run defense over the last four weeks. On the year they rank 3rd-worst in run defense EPA.
- Over the last two weeks, the Packers offense’s pass rate of expectation is -14%. For perspective, the run-heavy Bears’ pass rate of expectation season-long is-16%. The Falcons are at -12%.
- Aaron Jones….Jones led the Packers backfield with 12 carries for 40 rushing yards on Thursday night adding 6 receptions for 20 yards. His carry volume was half of what it was the week prior, but that’s often the case with a team reducing a player’s workload on a short week.
- He still operated as the clear No. 1 running back with a 73% opportunity share and 66% snap share. A.J. Dillon was a non-factor as he has been all season, totaling 6 carries for 13 yards.
- This matchup has the fastest projected pace of play among all games in Week 12.
- Fully expect the Chargers to air the ball with Justin Herbert at quarterback, who ranks second in the NFL in both completions and attempts this season.
- Arizona’s defense ranks third in passing attempts faced, second in completions and first in yards after the catch allowed.
- As a result, serious volume is going to come for wide receiver Keenan Allen.
- Allen posted his best outing of the year in Week 11, catching 5 balls for 94 yards on 8 targets (28% target share) coming off his hamstring injury (68% snap share)
- His 29% target rate per route run led the team.
- Cardinals Antonio Hamilton took over starting slot CB duties in Week 10. Since that point, the team has allowed 25 points per game to slot WRs.
- He can be trusted back fully in starting lineups, especially if Mike Williams is out
- The 49ers cannot stop slot receivers.
- Over the last four weeks, new slot safety defender Jimmie Ward has been targeted 23 times, allowing 23 catches for 197 yards and two TDs.
- Chris Olave leads the team in slot targets over the last two weeks (6), followed by tight end Juwan Johnson (5). Olave played a season-high, 45% of his snaps from the slot in Week 11.
- Jarvis Landry has run the most routes from the slot since returning 2 weeks ago. He saw three red-zone targets in Week 11.
- All three have scored from the slot over the last 3 weeks.
- Johnson and Olave are tied with a team-leading 20% target share since Landry’s return in Week 10.
- This matchup has the fourth-fastest projected pace of play among all games in Week 12.
- The Steelers run defense has vastly improved from a season ago: 2nd lowest TD rate allowed (18%) and 11th in run defense EPA.
- That suggests the Colts offense will most likely move the ball through the air.
- Pittsburgh ranks last in fantasy points per game allowed to slot WRs.
- Parris Campbell szn. In his last four games with Matt Ryan, Campbell owns a 24.5% target share.
- He has also averaged over 7 receptions, 9.5 targets and 67.5 receiving yards.
- Moreau finished with just one catch for 33 yards on 3 targets in Week 11. Woof.
- But what’s worse is he ran a route on just 61% of Derek Carr‘s dropbacks despite playing on 100% of the snaps.
- He was asked to pass block more than in the past which explains the receiving fall-off.
- However, with a plus-matchup on deck versus Seattle, I’d still take a flier on him as a Week 12 streaming option.
- The Seahawks have allowed the second-most fantasy points and receiving yards to tight ends this season.
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