We’re midway through Week 4 of the NHL fantasy hockey season, and we need to continue to build our rosters for the long haul.
Let’s take a look at some players to buy and sell as we look at both the short and long-term value.
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Buy
The price tag just went up on Thomspon on the heels of a six-point effort on Monday. In fact, nine of his 12 points on the season have come over the last two games. That said, Thompson was already a player delivering plenty of value to fantasy owners.
He was one of the breakout stars of the 2021-22 season, tallying 38 goals and 68 points across 78 games, but he also added a hefty 258 shots on goal. That’s substantial production from a player that had just 35 points across the first 145 games of his NHL career in parts of four seasons.
His exceptional effort Monday was simply a regression to the mean, as his hat trick helped boost his shooting rate to 15.4% after shooting at a 15% clip a season ago. With 39 shots in just nine games, Thompson’s 4.33 shots per game is a big boon to fantasy owners.
Thompson is also a plus-three on an improving Sabres team after scuffling to a minus-17 rating in that department a season ago.
He’s very much going to be a long-term fantasy stud, given his work over the last season and change.
Meier is another player that has seen some positive regression kick in after tallying a pair of goals Tuesday night, but perhaps some managers have soured on him, given his slow start to the season.
Meier has just three goals in 12 games this season, but he’s also piled an NHL-high 62 shots on goal in that time. As a result, he’s still sporting a tiny 4.8% shooting rate, a figure roughly half of his 9.8% career mark. Meier tallied 35 goals and 76 points on a monstrous 326 shots on goal last season, so he is very much a cross-category stud, as he also provided a whopping 162 hits.
Playing on a poor Sharks team, his plus/minus can be a concern, but Meier’s posted a palatable minus-four on the season and was only minus-three last season. He’s not moving anywhere from the Sharks’ top line and the top power-play unit, so power-play points should also be there.
After Tuesday’s two-goal effort, I’d look to buy right now, as the goals will start coming in bunches for the 26-year-old.
Marner is rostered in just about every ESPN league, but given a perceived slow start to the season, his value could be down in your league.
Marner has been under plenty of scrutiny early this season on an underperforming Maple Leafs team, but the right winger still has nine points in 10 games. He’s not a player that shoots the puck a ton, but his track record speaks for itself.
Since entering the league in the 2016-17 season, Marner’s ranks among right-wingers are the following:
Points: 4th (464)
Goals: 8th (140)
Assists: 2nd (324)
Power Play Points: 7th (135)
Plus-Minus: 4th (+71)
He’s simply been one of the very best right-wingers in the league since he’s been in it. He also should be in for an offensive explosion in short order as his center — Auston Matthews — is shooting at just 6.3% on the season, a mark that is miles below his 16.1% career figure. Matthews will start filling the net in no time, meaning plenty of assists and power-play points for Marner.
Buy now while the value has dipped.
Sell
Despite being rostered in less than 50% of ESPN leagues, Lindholm’s value is on the rise as Boston’s top defenseman at the moment.
Lindholm has collected three goals and 11 points across 10 games while also recording 14 penalty minutes and a plus-nine rating. However, his value isn’t going to get any higher and will take a sizeable hit once Charlie McAvoy returns to the Bruins’ lineup.
Lindholm is logging 24:21 of ice time per game — by far a career-high — and is getting top-unit power-play minutes in the process. However, that top power-play unit spot will be gone once McAvoy returns, and it appears it’s imminent. McAvoy skated in a regular jersey at Monday’s practice, meaning an early-than-expected return is very much in the cards.
As a result, right now is the time to sell on Lindholm while the value is at its peak.
There’s no doubt Karlsson has been an elite fantasy asset this season as he’s collected 15 points in 12 games and 32 shots on goal; however, the production is simply unsustainable.
After potting five goals over his last two games and 10 shots on goal, Karlsson owns a massive 28.1% shooting rate on the season, roughly quadrupling the 6.8% mark he owns for his career. He’s thriving so far now that Brent Burns is no longer a puck-possession monster on the San Jose blueline, but there’s no doubt the value is huge right now on the two-time Norris Trophy winner.
There are also always health concerns when it comes to Karlsson. Injuries have hindered his production in recent seasons, but he hasn’t played more than 56 games in each of the last four seasons. He appears healthy again, but the questionable injury is a red flag for me.
Feel free to send out some feelers and see what you can get for the early-season stud.
Like Karlsson, Miller is a quality fantasy asset as he’s notched five goals, nine points, and six power-play points in 10 games this season. If your league counts hits, he’s been even better with 24 of those on the season, or 2.4 per game.
However, Miller is going to be hard-pressed to record 99 points again as he did last season, and he’s apparently going to crush you in the plus-minus department as he’s already minus-five on what’s been a disastrous Canucks team to this point.
Rostered in nearly 99% of ESPN leagues, Miller is obviously a desirable player for many managers. However, the sheer fact that he plays on a bad team will cap his value, and, as noted, his 99 points from last season are unlikely to be achieved again.
Sometimes you have to trade quality assets to acquire quality assets, and Miller is a player that can help you do just that.
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