This is a tough week, with there really only being one top-10 matchup among OL and DL units. That one takes place in Buffalo, where Minnesota will look to keep rolling while the Bills have some injury issues they will need to overcome. I took a deeper dive into that game from the Minnesota offense perspective, so that is the main long-form matchup for this week. I also looked at three other games with cherry matchups for running backs, although I think Green Bay’s run defense has a chance to play well Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings OL (7th in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Buffalo Bills DL (4th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)

Minnesota will face its toughest test to date when they travel to Orchard Park this weekend. Buffalo’s defense is in the top 10 for both rush DVOA (6th) and pass DVOA (5th) while ranking 6th in adjusted line yards. Minnesota comes into the game ranked 10th in adjusted line yards offensively, but they will face an uphill battle here, especially in the running game. If you are looking for a week for Dalvin Cook to break out, this probably isn’t the one.

The Vikings have been better than their raw numbers show in the running game this year, ranking 8th in rush DVOA. Dalvin Cook’s overall numbers have been fine – he’s the seasonal RB12 – but the issue is that the Vikings rank 23rd in the league with just 23.5 rushes per game. That looks vastly different than what we were accustomed to when Mike Zimmer was running things. They’ll need to be effective Sunday, and the good news is center Garrett Bradbury has played well, especially in the run game. However, he and Ezra Cleveland will have their hands full with Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones. The Bills have been stout against the run, giving up just over 104 yards per game. That number is right in line with the Vikings’ seasonal average, so I am betting against Cook going for more than 70-80 yards and a hopeful touchdown unless his volume spikes. He’s a talent-driven RB2.

Minnesota will have to contend with Von Miller in the passing game, although they might catch a break because Gregory Rousseau suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 9. While Miller (7 sacks) has been his typical self, the loss of Rousseau would be a big blow to Buffalo. He is second on the team with five sacks and has thrived playing opposite Miller. The Vikings have been more pass-heavy this year, ranking 7th in the league with 38 attempts per game. However, this hasn’t led to an increase in production for Kirk Cousins, as he is on pace to miss his 2021 marks in yards, touchdowns, and completion percentage. The matchup on Sunday for Minnesota may come down to whether or not they can neutralize the Bills’ pass rush. Cousins is a 73% pass from a clean pocket, good for 4th in the league. That number drops all the way to 36% when pressured, which ranks 26th.

Justin Jefferson is matchup-proof, so you’re rolling him out regardless. The X-Factor here could be TJ Hockenson, who saw an 86% snap share and nine targets just a few days after being acquired by the Vikings. He adds a layer to the passing game that has been missing as Adam Thielen has fallen off a cliff. If Minnesota can keep Cousins upright, that would certainly bode well for boosting the odds of that happening. Tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill will have their hands full with Miller, but both have played extremely well this year. Darrisaw is a star in the making at tackle and has yet to allow a sack in 534 snaps. I am skeptical about most of the Vikings’ offensive pieces here, although there is a path to where the passing game gets there. If Cousins plays well, we could see a blowup game that he seems to have 1-2 times a year, and a 300/3 passing line isn’t out of the question. Cousins has a history of playing small in spots like this, so he has something to prove.

Quick Hits

Dallas Cowboys OL (4th in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Green Bay Packers DL (16th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)

On paper, this is a bit of a mismatch, as the Packers have been terrible against the run this year. They are 31st in rush DVOA and give up over 138 rushing yards per game, which is 26th in the league. This sets up well for Dallas, who is 3rd in rush DVOA and 9th in adjusted line yards. Both Zeke Elliott (assuming he plays) and Tony Pollard set up well here, but something tells me Green Bay plays well this week. They didn’t get gashed by Detroit last Sunday, giving up just 117 rushing yards, and they have their backs against the wall in the NFC. This might not be the slam dunk matchup for the Dallas run game that it appears to be.

Los Angeles Chargers DL (24th in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ San Francisco 49ers OL (13th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)

The 49ers are coming off a bye, which means Christian McCaffery is completely engrained in the playbook. Now they get a Chargers team that has been beaten up on the ground. LA just coughed up a two-touchdown game to Cordarelle Patterson and is giving up 145 rushing yards per game. Guard Aaron Banks is a mauler in the run game, and San Francisco boasts two superb tackles in Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey. The 49ers have traditionally been a strong rushing team, and they should get back to those roots this week. CMC could be the top overall running back on the slate this week.

Detroit Lions OL (2nd in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Chicago Bears DL (31st in FantasyPros DL Rankings)

I wrote this one up in long form and then quickly realized the optimal way for Detroit to attack Sunday is on the ground. Chicago’s defense ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards and 28th in rush DVOA. While Jared Goff should have plenty of time in the pocket to turn in a usable game (Chicago ranks 30th in the league in sacks), Detroit should look to run early and often. D’Andre Swift‘s status is still unclear. If he is limited, this would set up Jamaal Williams as a Flex/RB2 that I would feel confident rolling with this week. He’s coming off a 21-carry game against Green Bay, and the Chicago defensive line is soft along the interior. His touchdown upside always puts him in play, but if Swift only gets 6-8 touches, Williams could post a 100-yard game with two scores.

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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.