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No House Advantage Pick ‘Ems Week 12 (2022 NFL Football)

by Nate Polvogt | @NatePolvogt | Featured Writer
Nov 27, 2022

The recent explosion of online betting and new, inventive ways to play fantasy sports has most of our heads spinning. No House Advantage’s new app lets you stack over/under prop bets to win real money. I’ll be here weekly, giving you my favorite prop bet plays to help you build a winning stack.

No House Advantage is offering three options for their Pick’ Ems contest this Sunday for the early 1 PM EST Slate. Entry fees range from $5 to $15. The following prop bet picks apply to all three contests.

Rachaad White (RB – TB) OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards

It’s beginning to look like a new era for the RB position in Tampa Bay. In a Week 11 victory over the Seattle Seahawks in Germany, rookie ball carrier Rachaad White broke out in a big way. While veteran Leonard Fournette missing the second half with a hip-pointer injury, White logged 22 carries for 105 yards.

Week 12 has White and the Buccaneers up against a Browns defense that cannot stop the rushing attack. They allow an average of 120 rushing yards to opposing RBs, including 164 yards to the Seahawks last week and 195 to the Dolphins in Week 11. In addition, Fournette is officially listed as doubtful; if he is active, he will be limited at best. So this will be Rachaad White’s backfield in Week 12, and I’m confidently taking the over on this rushing prop as a high-priority play.

Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) UNDER 70.5 Rushing Yards

Things have been mostly a mess for the Houston Texans in 2022. One bright spot has been the emergence of RB Dameon Pierce, who has been most of the team’s offense this season. However, Week 11 saw the dynamic rookie shut down by a surging Commanders’ defense. As a result, Pierce saw a season-low ten carries for a measly eight rushing yards.

Week 12 doesn’t look to be any easier for Pierce and the Texans. They are up against a Miami defense that isn’t giving up much in the ground game. They have allowed opposing RBs to rush for more than 70 yards only five times in 2022. In their last four games, only Browns RB Nick Chubb has eclipsed that mark, going for 72 yards in Week 11. In a game that figures to be out of hand early, Houston will have no choice but to throw more than they want. So take the under on this rushing prop as a confident high-priority play for Week 12.

Greg Dulcich (TE – DEN) OVER 3.5 Receptions

It’s hard to be excited about anything associated with the Denver Broncos offense in 2022. They’ve been ineffective all season, unable to move the ball downfield or score regularly. Week 11 saw them hit the lowest of lows, losing to a bad Las Vegas Raiders team and only managing ten points.

Week 12 presents the Broncos with a bounce-back opportunity. Heading to Carolina to battle one of the worst defenses in the league, Russell Wilson and company will look to be explosive early and often. The team will again be without wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, giving the team limited options. Greg Dulcich, one of Wilson’s favorite targets since being activated ahead of Week 6, is in line to see significant volume this week. Carolina is giving up an average of 4.64 catches to TEs, and Dulcich averages 3.4 per game. With the expected increase in usage, Dulcich is a smash to hit the over on this prop. Because it’s the Broncos, I’m playing it safe and rolling this one out as a mid-priority play.

Michael Carter (RB – NYJ) OVER 48.5 Rushing Yards

Expectations were high for Jets RB Michael Carter when rookie Breece Hall was lost for the season with an ACL tear. However, in the three games since Carter became the lead ball carrier, he is averaging just 40.3 yards rushing per game. This can be chalked up to a lack of effectiveness in the New York offense behind QB Zach Wilson, who head coach Robert Saleh has benched in favor of backup Mike White.

It’s not often that a backup offers an upgrade at any position, but that’s exactly what is happening in New York. Last week against the Patriots, Wilson was abhorrent, allowing the New England defense to shut down the run game with ease. However, Mike White has proven to be a more effective passer, and this week a bad Chicago Bears defense won’t be able to focus on Carter and RB James Robinson. Carter will return to form this week, and 48.5 rushing yards seems an easy target to surpass. I’m taking advantage of oddsmakers sleeping on him this week and taking the over on this rushing prop for Michael carter as a mid-priority play.

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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.

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