WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 12 (2022 Fantasy Football)

WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 12 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Another week and another set of unexpected outcomes from week 11. The only thing that has been constant in the 2022 NFL season has been inconsistency. This has trickled into WR Fantasy projections, so using data to ID the best likely outcomes is more important than ever. So, let’s jump right in, as we have some very solid projections this week.

Week 11 Results

After a couple of strong weeks, we landed another “blah” week, going 2-3, with very little magnitude on either side.

Name FP Selection Projected Actual Net
Garrett Wilson START 9.3 3.2 -6.1
Darius Slayton START 10.5 13.6 +3.1
Nico Collins START 9.5 9.8 +.3
Michael Pittman SIT 13.0 13.5 +.5
DeVonta Smith SIT 12.4 13.8 +1.4

Season Scorecard

Season Record: 41-27

*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR

Week 12 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard

Raw Numbers Weekly Rank
Snaps Wt.ed Net pprr 40 Adv. HT Adv. nPFFwted Total Wt.ed Net pprr 40 Adv. HT Adv. nPFFwted Total Avg. Rk.
Drake London 54.6 17.6 0.00 3.35 7.9 2 10 9 33 14
Amon-Ra St. Brown 37.2 14.9 0.00 1.71 14.0 7 10 22 21 15
Keenan Allen 40.9 12.6 0.00 0.95 31.2 18 10 30 4 16
DeAndre Hopkins 42.1 17.0 0.00 2.91 5.2 3 10 11 44 17
Michael Pittman Jr. 40.4 12.3 0.07 4.82 3.1 21 4 2 49 19
Tee Higgins 40.4 10.3 0.00 2.13 15.1 34 10 19 19 21
Chris Olave 51.2 18.2 0.00 1.38 4.2 1 10 26 46 21
Brandon Aiyuk 39.8 14.4 0.00 0.20 12.9 13 10 37 24 21
Mike Williams 41.3 12.4 0.00 3.66 2.1 20 10 6 52 22
Davante Adams 39.5 10.7 0.00 0.00 28.7 31 10 40 8 22
Allen Lazard 38.3 12.0 0.00 6.03 1.8 23 10 1 55 22
Corey Davis 39.1 9.6 0.00 1.73 15.5 40 10 21 18 22
Garrett Wilson 47.1 13.1 0.10 0.00 7.9 16 2 40 32 23
Darius Slayton 39.7 15.8 0.00 0.68 5.1 4 10 33 45 23
Alec Pierce 43.4 12.0 0.01 3.55 0.2 25 8 7 57 24
Deebo Samuel 37.2 12.4 0.00 0.27 7.4 19 10 36 34 25
Noah Brown 42.0 9.2 0.00 2.01 9.6 44 10 20 29 26
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 39.5 10.0 0.00 3.16 3.7 36 10 10 47 26
Tyler Boyd 40.5 7.2 0.00 0.18 57.4 55 10 38 1 26
Amari Cooper 40.6 8.9 0.00 0.00 25.4 45 10 40 10 26
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 41.9 8.5 0.08 2.64 5.4 48 3 14 42 27
Christian Watson 36.9 14.6 0.07 1.40 -2.5 11 5 25 67 27
Stefon Diggs 42.3 14.8 0.00 -0.27 26.7 8 10 81 9 27
Adam Thielen 39.7 9.7 0.00 3.73 0.3 39 10 5 56 28
Devin Duvernay 41.9 7.5 0.00 0.00 29.5 53 10 40 7 28
Josh Palmer 41.1 9.3 0.00 1.64 6.8 43 10 23 36 28
Gabriel Davis 42.2 8.1 0.00 0.44 20.1 51 10 35 16 28
Parris Campbell 40.4 10.3 0.29 1.46 1.9 35 1 24 53 28
Terrace Marshall Jr. 39.3 9.5 0.00 3.46 1.8 41 10 8 54 28
Nico Collins 38.4 6.5 0.00 0.00 30.0 57 10 40 6 28
Robert Woods 39.2 9.8 0.00 0.98 5.2 37 10 29 43 30
Brandin Cooks 38.2 6.1 0.00 0.00 22.1 58 10 40 14 31
Donovan Peoples-Jones 40.6 6.1 0.00 0.00 23.6 59 10 40 13 31
James Proche 42.0 3.6 0.00 0.00 36.7 72 10 40 2 31
DeVonta Smith 41.7 12.0 0.00 0.00 2.4 24 10 39 51 31
Mack Hollins 39.6 4.9 0.00 0.00 25.0 65 10 40 12 32
Chase Claypool 41.8 8.6 0.02 4.41 -6.2 46 7 3 71 32
Demarcus Robinson 41.8 4.8 0.00 0.00 25.1 67 10 40 11 32
David Bell 34.1 2.6 0.00 0.00 33.7 75 10 40 3 32
Justin Jefferson 39.5 15.0 -0.03 2.52 10.8 6 83 15 27 33
Terry McLaurin 41.3 11.0 0.00 -0.25 20.3 28 10 80 15 33
Jahan Dotson 51.7 14.8 0.01 -1.14 8.0 9 9 85 31 34
CeeDee Lamb 41.4 14.5 -0.05 2.48 13.0 12 86 16 23 34
A.J. Green 42.1 8.3 0.00 2.75 -1.9 49 10 13 66 35
Allen Robinson II 39.7 9.4 0.00 2.23 -3.9 42 10 18 70 35
JuJu Smith-Schuster 59.3 15.7 -0.02 0.80 12.2 5 82 31 25 36
Curtis Samuel 39.7 12.7 0.00 -1.09 6.5 17 10 84 37 37
Jakobi Meyers 39.3 14.1 -0.07 2.25 10.2 15 88 17 28 37
Keelan Cole 39.5 1.2 0.00 0.00 17.4 82 10 40 17 37
K.J. Osborn 39.8 8.6 0.00 1.06 -1.0 47 10 28 65 38
Damiere Byrd 39.7 14.3 0.00 -2.35 6.2 14 10 88 39 38
Jauan Jennings 39.8 11.4 -0.06 4.09 7.2 26 87 4 35 38
A.J. Brown 41.6 14.6 -0.04 0.63 11.7 10 84 34 26 39
Jarvis Landry 38.5 12.3 0.00 -0.20 2.8 22 10 79 50 40
Olamide Zaccheaus 39.9 11.1 0.00 -2.76 5.9 27 10 89 41 42
Treylon Burks 41.2 10.8 -0.13 2.84 6.2 30 90 12 40 43
Kalif Raymond 37.6 8.3 0.00 -2.03 8.2 50 10 87 30 44
Richie James Jr. 36.7 9.7 0.00 0.00 -41.3 38 10 40 89 44
DeVante Parker 39.4 7.4 -0.04 1.30 14.1 54 85 27 20 47
Darnell Mooney 41.6 10.7 0.04 -0.56 -3.2 32 6 82 68 47
D.J. Moore 39.0 10.3 0.00 -0.95 -0.2 33 10 83 64 48
Elijah Moore 39.4 7.0 0.00 -1.36 6.4 56 10 86 38 48
Julio Jones 40.5 5.9 0.00 0.00 -22.4 60 10 40 81 48
Quez Watkins 41.1 4.9 0.00 0.00 30.7 66 80 40 5 48
Justin Watson 28.9 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.0 85 10 40 58 48
Ben Skowronek 38.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.0 85 10 40 58 48
Van Jefferson 39.7 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.0 85 10 40 58 48
Mike Evans 40.5 5.8 0.00 0.00 -23.3 61 10 40 82 48
Chris Moore 38.2 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.0 85 10 40 58 48
Rondale Moore 41.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.0 85 10 40 58 48
Equanimeous St. Brown 40.7 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.0 85 10 40 58 48
Michael Gallup 42.0 8.0 -0.07 0.71 13.5 52 89 32 22 49
Isaiah Hodgins 30.8 5.4 0.00 0.00 -24.2 62 10 40 85 49
Rashid Shaheed 32.1 4.6 0.00 0.00 -21.6 68 10 40 80 50
Chris Godwin 40.2 5.2 0.00 0.00 -35.1 63 10 40 86 50
Randall Cobb 39.0 5.2 0.00 0.00 -37.9 64 10 40 87 50
Nelson Agholor 39.3 1.9 0.00 0.00 -8.4 77 10 40 74 50
Ja’Marr Chase 40.2 1.6 0.00 0.00 -7.6 80 10 40 73 51
Trent Sherfield 41.2 1.9 0.00 0.00 -12.3 76 10 40 77 51
D.J. Chark Jr. 37.9 2.7 0.00 0.00 -17.9 74 10 40 79 51
D.K. Metcalf 39.7 0.8 0.00 0.00 -3.9 84 10 40 69 51
Tyreek Hill 40.5 1.7 0.00 0.00 -9.2 79 10 40 75 51
Zay Jones 39.4 4.5 0.00 0.00 -24.0 70 10 40 84 51
Jaylen Waddle 40.7 1.7 0.00 0.00 -10.1 78 10 40 76 51
Marvin Jones Jr. 39.3 4.4 0.00 0.00 -23.8 71 10 40 83 51
Marquise Goodwin 39.3 1.1 0.00 0.00 -7.3 83 10 40 72 51
Christian Kirk 39.2 4.6 0.00 0.00 -54.7 69 10 40 90 52
Tyler Lockett 39.4 1.4 0.00 0.00 -12.6 81 10 40 78 52
Shi Smith 39.4 2.8 0.00 0.00 -39.9 73 10 40 88 53
Isaiah McKenzie 41.9 10.9 -0.01 -3.83 3.2 29 81 90 48 62

*Again thanks to our friends at PFF for the data

**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read), we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.

Legend

  • Snaps: estimated total dropback snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
  • Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run.” Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.

Example:

  • Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
  • DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
  • DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
  • DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run

This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)

  • *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
  • *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
  • nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage.” Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB

*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e., you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this data point to populate)

Secondary/Bonus Chart

For this week, we included data points/model to represent the target share CHANGES given specific circumstances (Blitz, Man) we expect the WR to see, given the opponent’s tendencies. As we’ve noted previously, how a QB operates and who he targets can change drastically given the defensive scheme, so keeping the data below in consideration for setting your lineup on a weekly basis is key.

A few notes on the data below:

  • ALL stats ignore game scripts of greater than a 16-point differential (either way), the goal line (and from 0-10 yard line) and 4th downs and quarters.
  • All % next to a WR represent target SHARE given the circumstance (i.e., Nico Collins is seeing 24% of targets without a blitz and 62% when blitzed).
  • The first six columns represent how the respective WR performs, along with a “bonus” that’s reflective of target share increasing with Blitz (vs. non-Blitz) and Man (vs. Zone), meaning a negative number is not “bad,” but more so that the WR’s target share gets a bump with no Blitz or Zone respectively.
  • The middle columns represent the WR’s opponent’s tendencies, along with a (3rd and 5th row in the middle section) metric for how many percentage points above or below league average THAT defense sends blitz/runs Man.
  • The last three columns give an aggregate of how the WR performs relative to coverage and blitz schemes to expect
WR Details WR Target Ownership Splits Opponent Blitz/No Blitz & Man/Zone Splits Net WR vs Opp expected value
Player no blitz % BLITZ % Blitz Bonus zone % MAN % Man Bonus W12 Opp BLITZ Rate BR > Avg MAN RATE MR>Avg “Blitz” Bonus “Man” Bonus Total “bump”
Nico Collins 24% 62% 38% 17% 46% 28% MIA 35% 11% 34% 5% 4% 2% 6%
A.J. Brown 37% 61% 24% 41% 50% 9% GB 43% 20% 37% 8% 5% 1% 5%
Jauan Jennings 16% 13% -3% 9% 40% 30% NO 13% -10% 39% 10% 0% 3% 3%
Amari Cooper 34% 71% 37% 46% 34% -11% TB 29% 6% 19% -10% 2% 1% 3%
Curtis Samuel 35% 1% -34% 35% 14% -21% ATL 15% -8% 25% -3% 3% 1% 3%
Noah Brown 22% 25% 3% 17% 32% 14% NYG 38% 15% 46% 17% 0% 2% 3%
George Pickens 39% 19% -20% 29% 49% 20% IND 12% -11% 31% 2% 2% 0% 3%
Josh Reynolds 41% 11% -31% 21% 18% -2% BUF 16% -8% 24% -5% 2% 0% 2%
DeAndre Hopkins 36% 22% -14% 25% 51% 27% LAC 25% 1% 39% 10% 0% 3% 2%
Brandon Aiyuk 48% 44% -4% 40% 57% 17% NO 13% -10% 39% 10% 0% 2% 2%
Jakobi Meyers 33% 24% -9% 31% 27% -4% MIN 14% -9% 12% -17% 1% 1% 1%
Tyler Boyd 29% 20% -9% 30% 22% -7% TEN 10% -13% 24% -4% 1% 0% 1%
Darius Slayton 32% 39% 7% 25% 36% 12% DAL 26% 3% 39% 10% 0% 1% 1%
JuJu Smith-Schuster 20% 27% 8% 26% 19% -7% LAR 30% 7% 17% -11% 1% 1% 1%
Alec Pierce 34% 28% -6% 24% 39% 15% PIT 24% 1% 38% 9% 0% 1% 1%
Jaylen Waddle 30% 22% -9% 31% 13% -18% HOU 19% -4% 24% -5% 0% 1% 1%
Treylon Burks 21% 12% -9% 11% 26% 15% CIN 17% -6% 33% 4% 1% 1% 1%
Diontae Johnson 34% 27% -8% 32% 36% 4% IND 12% -11% 31% 2% 1% 0% 1%
Marvin Jones 20% 28% 7% 26% 11% -15% BAL 22% -1% 22% -7% 0% 1% 1%
Courtland Sutton 52% 35% -17% 54% 38% -17% CAR 26% 2% 21% -8% 0% 1% 1%
Gabriel Davis 28% 39% 11% 35% 19% -16% DET 31% 8% 30% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Marquise Brown 23% 51% 27% 25% 29% 4% LAC 25% 1% 39% 10% 0% 0% 1%
DeAndre Carter 22% 25% 4% 23% 19% -4% ARI 33% 10% 18% -11% 0% 0% 1%
Cooper Kupp 39% 51% 12% 46% 35% -11% KC 28% 5% 28% -1% 1% 0% 1%
Michael Bandy 0% 4% 4% 2% -1% -3% ARI 33% 10% 18% -11% 0% 0% 1%
CeeDee Lamb 50% 46% -4% 44% 52% 7% NYG 38% 15% 46% 17% -1% 1% 1%
Drake London 30% 27% -3% 26% 40% 14% WAS 24% 0% 34% 5% 0% 1% 1%
DJ Moore 51% 65% 15% 45% 57% 13% DEN 29% 6% 27% -1% 1% 0% 1%
Justin Jefferson 51% 70% 18% 55% 66% 11% NE 22% -1% 36% 7% 0% 1% 1%
Isaiah McKenzie 7% 14% 7% 8% 11% 3% DET 31% 8% 30% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Allen Lazard 34% 45% 11% 24% 39% 15% PHI 24% 0% 32% 3% 0% 0% 1%
Kalif Raymond 27% 25% -2% 30% 21% -9% BUF 16% -8% 24% -5% 0% 0% 1%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 31% 0% -31% 31% 8% -22% LAR 30% 7% 17% -11% -2% 3% 0%
Christian Kirk 44% 28% -16% 36% 32% -4% BAL 22% -1% 22% -7% 0% 0% 0%
Amon-Ra St. Brown 41% 32% -9% 36% 42% 6% BUF 16% -8% 24% -5% 1% 0% 0%
Elijah Moore 22% 17% -5% 19% 18% -1% CHI 16% -7% 27% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Josh Palmer 36% 18% -18% 37% 18% -19% ARI 33% 10% 18% -11% -2% 2% 0%
K.J. Osborn 15% 2% -13% 6% 9% 3% NE 22% -1% 36% 7% 0% 0% 0%
DeVante Parker 20% 39% 19% 30% 18% -12% MIN 14% -9% 12% -17% -2% 2% 0%
Terrace Marshall Jr. 27% 29% 2% 27% 18% -8% DEN 29% 6% 27% -1% 0% 0% 0%
Jarvis Landry 18% 3% -15% 15% 2% -13% SF 25% 2% 25% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Devin Duvernay 18% 25% 8% 21% 24% 3% JAC 26% 3% 26% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Ben Skowronek 13% 18% 5% 11% 21% 10% KC 28% 5% 28% -1% 0% 0% 0%
Marquez Callaway 7% 8% 1% 9% 5% -4% SF 25% 2% 25% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Michael Pittman Jr. 35% 46% 11% 33% 33% 0% PIT 24% 1% 38% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Wan’Dale Robinson 17% 1% -16% 10% 15% 5% DAL 26% 3% 39% 10% 0% 1% 0%
Scotty Miller 11% 7% -4% 13% 1% -12% CLE 20% -3% 30% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Chris Godwin 17% 15% -3% 18% 10% -8% CLE 20% -3% 30% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 30% 14% -16% 34% 11% -23% CIN 17% -6% 33% 4% 1% -1% 0%
Mike Evans 38% 41% 3% 38% 39% 1% CLE 20% -3% 30% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Mack Hollins 26% 19% -7% 18% 37% 19% SEA 16% -8% 26% -3% 1% -1% 0%
DK Metcalf 32% 42% 9% 40% 27% -13% LV 24% 1% 30% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Zay Jones 23% 23% 1% 23% 25% 2% BAL 22% -1% 22% -7% 0% 0% 0%
Demarcus Robinson 24% 7% -18% 24% 11% -14% JAC 26% 3% 26% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Olamide Zaccheaus 24% 30% 6% 25% 21% -4% WAS 24% 0% 34% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Rondale Moore 12% 2% -10% 12% 11% -1% LAC 25% 1% 39% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Romeo Doubs 9% 23% 13% 19% 11% -9% PHI 24% 0% 32% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Robert Woods 27% 23% -4% 29% 18% -10% CIN 17% -6% 33% 4% 0% 0% 0%
DeVonta Smith 27% 23% -4% 26% 31% 6% GB 43% 20% 37% 8% -1% 0% 0%
Allen Robinson 29% 27% -2% 22% 38% 17% KC 28% 5% 28% -1% 0% 0% 0%
Corey Davis 20% 33% 13% 30% 0% -30% CHI 16% -7% 27% -2% -1% 1% 0%
Tyler Lockett 39% 29% -9% 35% 19% -16% LV 24% 1% 30% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Rashod Bateman 19% 9% -10% 10% 11% 1% JAC 26% 3% 26% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Russell Gage 9% 23% 15% 8% 20% 12% CLE 20% -3% 30% 1% 0% 0% 0%
A.J. Green 4% 0% -4% 4% 1% -3% LAC 25% 1% 39% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Tre’Quan Smith 11% 15% 4% 7% 21% 13% SF 25% 2% 25% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Chris Olave 39% 51% 12% 36% 53% 17% SF 25% 2% 25% -3% 0% -1% 0%
Sterling Shepard 16% 7% -9% 13% 10% -2% DAL 26% 3% 39% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Terry McLaurin 50% 53% 3% 41% 50% 9% ATL 15% -8% 25% -3% 0% 0% -1%
Hunter Renfrow 9% 16% 7% 11% 12% 1% SEA 16% -8% 26% -3% -1% 0% -1%
Randall Cobb 22% 1% -21% 28% 12% -16% PHI 24% 0% 32% 3% 0% -1% -1%
Adam Thielen 28% 36% 8% 32% 25% -8% NE 22% -1% 36% 7% 0% -1% -1%
Stefon Diggs 50% 41% -9% 48% 43% -4% DET 31% 8% 30% 1% -1% 0% -1%
Greg Dortch 6% 10% 3% 9% 1% -9% LAC 25% 1% 39% 10% 0% -1% -1%
Mike Williams 33% 32% -1% 26% 32% 6% ARI 33% 10% 18% -11% 0% -1% -1%
Richie James Jr. 19% 30% 11% 21% 9% -12% DAL 26% 3% 39% 10% 0% -1% -1%
Tee Higgins 36% 40% 5% 29% 38% 8% TEN 10% -13% 24% -4% -1% 0% -1%
David Sills V 13% 1% -11% 11% 4% -7% DAL 26% 3% 39% 10% 0% -1% -1%
Ja’Marr Chase 26% 30% 4% 22% 36% 14% TEN 10% -13% 24% -4% 0% -1% -1%
Shi Smith 15% -2% -18% 8% 24% 17% DEN 29% 6% 27% -1% -1% 0% -1%
Jerry Jeudy 23% 39% 17% 16% 37% 21% CAR 26% 2% 21% -8% 0% -2% -1%
Parris Campbell 22% 6% -16% 22% 7% -15% PIT 24% 1% 38% 9% 0% -1% -1%
Michael Gallup 14% 11% -3% 14% 8% -6% NYG 38% 15% 46% 17% 0% -1% -1%
Chris Moore 19% 5% -14% 13% 13% 1% MIA 35% 11% 34% 5% -2% 0% -2%
Davante Adams 50% 72% 22% 49% 48% -1% SEA 16% -8% 26% -3% -2% 0% -2%
Garrett Wilson 28% 47% 19% 29% 42% 13% CHI 16% -7% 27% -2% -1% 0% -2%
Donovan Peoples-Jones 38% 30% -8% 25% 38% 13% TB 29% 6% 19% -10% 0% -1% -2%
Tyreek Hill 44% 77% 32% 47% 66% 18% HOU 19% -4% 24% -5% -1% -1% -2%
Nelson Agholor 11% 26% 15% 13% 18% 5% MIN 14% -9% 12% -17% -1% -1% -2%
Brandin Cooks 43% 17% -26% 35% 13% -23% MIA 35% 11% 34% 5% -3% -1% -4%
Deebo Samuel 7% 32% 25% 20% 3% -17% NO 13% -10% 39% 10% -2% -2% -4%
Darnell Mooney 39% 74% 35% 39% 49% 10% Jets 11% -12% 27% -2% -4% 0% -4%

*Thanks to our friends at Sports Info Solutions, and their SIS Database for the info!

WR Matchups to Target in Week 12

*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)

Jauan Jennings (WR – SF)

Jennings comes in with both models liking his prospective outcomes for this week. For starters, Jennings gets a huge bump in target share when facing man coverage (40% vs. 9%), and he will be facing the Saints, that play Man Coverage 10% points higher than the league average (39%). Additionally, he draws veteran Chris Harris (64% expected pass snaps) this week. With that, Jennings has our 4th best (weighted) height advantage this week, mainly due to the 5 inches he has over Harris (70 vs 75).

Noah Brown (WR – DAL)

Somewhat similar, and a bit surprising, Brown is gaining 32% of the Cowboy’s targets when blitzed, vs. 17% when NOT blitzed. This is especially important as he faces the NFL’s “blitziest” team in the Giants (17% percentage points above league average). Brown also comes in with our main model’s 18th-best net matchup this week, mainly fueled by a solid nPFF rating (29th) and a solid “physical matchup” (10th-best speed advantage and 20th-best net height advantage). The majority of this has to do with the 4 inches Brown has over likely cover men Darnay Holmes (34% of expected coverage snaps).

Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)

Anecdotally, I love Boyd this week. With Chase likely coming back , most of the fantasy world (and hopefully DCs) will be focused his way. However, Boyd has a strong matchup this week regardless. Boyd has been QB, Joe Burrow‘s target “in structure.” That is, when teams play zone (30% vs 22%) and don’t blitz (29% vs 20%), Boyd’s target share goes up.

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 12

Darnell Mooney

We scored on Mooney earlier in the year (in the opposite direction). Ignoring the possibility of his young QB being banged up, Mooney has the worst “circumstances” this week: to sum up, Mooney has a massive increase in targets when opponents blitz, especially in man. However, the Jets blitz 12% points less than league average, and run man slightly below average (-2% points).

Tyreek Hill

I may sound like a broken record here, but Hill “loves” blitz/man, gaining a whopping 77% target share (vs 44%) with a blitz and 66% (vs 47%) in man. This does not bode well, marginally speaking, when facing the Lovie Smith defense, which doesn’t blitz and runs zone.

We hope the model helped you all make 50/50 decisions, and better position your roster to get the “W” this week. Here’s to a winning week. We hope to see you back in Week 13.

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