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Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 14 (2022)

Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 14 (2022)

The game of fantasy football has become more complex over the past several years. While the game itself hasn’t changed much, the way to analyze stats and draw conclusions has become much more in-depth with the development of advanced stats.

One of those advanced stats is air yards. Why are air yards important? Because it helps differentiate the value of targets. Quick passes like screens and slants have a different value than downfield routes. Depending on your league’s scoring, it will make a difference in what you want from a fantasy player.

Receiving yards is a basic yet important stat for fantasy football players. Having receivers who catch plenty of short targets is valuable in PPR scoring. However, a receiver with consistent big-play ability downfield is equally valuable.

Air yards are not the golden ticket to winning your fantasy league. However, they are useful tools to help you analyze the game. Let’s look at the top 10 performers at each position and the five top underperformers.

Stats via FantasyPros

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Pass Attempts

1) Geno Smith (SEA)

238

6.1

39

2) Jalen Hurts (PHI)

231

5.9

39

3) Justin Fields (CHI)

221

8.8

25

4) Jared Goff (DET)

201

4.9

41

5) Mike White (NYJ)

196

3.4

57

6) Derek Carr (LV)

179

6

30

7) Justin Herbert (LAC)

179

3.8

47

8) Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

164

5

33

9) Joe Burrow (CIN)

160

5.2

31

10) Matt Ryan (IND)

153

4.1

37

After missing the Week 12 game with a shoulder injury, Fields returned last week and played well. His two interceptions hurt his fantasy total, but the second-year quarterback had arguably his best game of the year. Fields completed 80% of his pass attempts, a career-high. Furthermore, his 254 passing yards and 221 air yards (accounting for 87% of his passing yards) were both season-highs. By comparison, Trevor Siemian had only 179 passing yards and 80 air yards in Week 12, filling in for the franchise quarterback. Despite losing his No. 1 wide receiver, Fields had the third most air yards last week while having the 26th-most pass attempts.

While the New York Jets are 1-1 with White as their starting quarterback, the former Western Kentucky star has played well. He has 347 air yards (173.5 air yards per game) and a 4.1 aDOT in his two starts. Meanwhile, Zach Wilson averaged only 84.8 air yards per game and a 3.3 aDOT in his last six starts. By comparison, Joe Flacco averaged 178.3 air yards per game and a 3.5 aDOT in his three starts at the beginning of the year. Some are ready to give up on Wilson, while others are not. Either way, the Jets’ passing attack has been at its best with White. However, his biggest challenge of the year will come this week against the Buffalo Bills.

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Targets

1) Davante Adams (LV)

127

10.6

12

2) DK Metcalf (SEA)

112

14

8

3) Tyreek Hill (MIA)

98

7

14

4) A.J. Brown (PHI)

97

9.7

10

5) Garrett Wilson (NYJ)

97

6.5

15

6) D.J. Chark Jr. (DET)

89

14.8

6

7) Keenan Allen (LAC)

82

5.9

14

8) Drake London (ATL)

78

6.5

12

9) Equanimeous St. Brown (CHI)

72

18

4

10) Alec Pierce (IND)

72

9

8

Brown had arguably his best performance of the year, totaling 97 air yards against his former team. The star receiver has only one other game this season with over 90 air yards, back in Week 8. More importantly, he had a 9.7 aDOT, which was the best mark on the team last week. By comparison, DeVonta Smith had eight targets on Sunday but totaled only 50 air yards (a 6.3 aDOT). Meanwhile, Quez Watkins had negative air yards after totaling 57 over the past two weeks. Brown got his revenge against Tennessee. The only question is: will he keep up his production heading into the fantasy playoffs?

The biggest winner from the New York quarterback change has been the first-round rookie receiver. Garrett Wilson has been the WR3 over the past two weeks with White starting, averaging 22.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, he was the WR52 with Wilson starting, averaging only 6.5 fantasy points per contest. Furthermore, the rookie receiver’s wild splits in fantasy production show up in his air yards. With White starting, Wilson has averaged 75.5 air yards per game. He averaged only 26.5 air yards per game, with the former BYU quarterback starting by comparison. Fantasy players with the former Ohio State star on their roster should hope White remains the starting quarterback for the rest of the season.

The Top 10 Tight Ends

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Targets

1) Cole Kmet (CHI)

47

6.7

7

2) Mark Andrews (BAL)

39

5.6

7

3) Greg Dulcich (DEN)

30

3.8

8

4) Jack Stoll (PHI)

29

9.7

3

5) Taysom Hill (NO)

28

9.3

3

6) Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN)

25

5

5

7) Foster Moreau (LV)

24

8

3

8) Brevin Jordan (HOU)

24

4.8

5

9) Noah Fant (SEA)

23

4.6

5

10) Pat Freiermuth (PIT)

23

4.6

5

Many thought Chase Claypool would step up after Darnell Mooney suffered a season-ending ankle injury last week. However, he had only 28 receiving yards on six targets and posted a 4.7 aDOT. Instead, the third-year tight end stepped up for Chicago. Kmet led all tight ends in air yards in Week 13. Furthermore, his 47 air yards were more than several superstar wide receivers last week, including Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. More importantly, Kmet has averaged 39 air yards per game and posted a 7.1 aDOT over the past two contests Fields has played. Now is the time to acquire the young tight end with the Bears on their bye this week.

Injuries are part of the game. Nonetheless, the Baltimore Ravens losing Lamar Jackson on Sunday to a knee injury was a kick to the you-know-what for fantasy players. However, the franchise quarterback reportedly will miss only 1-3 games because of the injury. Last year, Jackson missed five games because of injuries, with Tyler Huntley starting four of those games. In those contests, Andrews averaged eight receptions and 58.5 air yards per matchup. Fantasy players don’t need to worry about starting the star tight end with Jackson out of the lineup.

The Top Five Underperformers

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Targets

1) Tyler Conklin (TE – NYJ)

3

0.4

7

2) Travis Kelce (TE – KC)

10

1.7

6

3) Cade Otton (TE – TB)

11

1.1

10

4) Nico Collins (WR – HOU)

22

2.2

10

5) Amari Cooper (WR – CLE)

23

2.6

9

While the rookie Wilson has been the biggest benefactor of New York’s quarterback switch, Conklin has struggled. In the two games with White starting, the veteran tight end has 10 targets but only 30 air yards. Meanwhile, C.J. Uzomah had only one target last week compared to seven for Conklin. Yet, he had 17 air yards on his lone reception. By comparison, Uzomah had 14 targets and 30 air yards this season before last week’s matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. Conklin’s days as a streaming option end might be over.

The Houston Texans have been awful this season. However, one of their few bright spots has been Collins. The former Michigan star was averaging 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points and 33.2 air yards per game before Sunday’s matchup against the Cleveland Browns. With Brandin Cooks unable to play, Collins had an opportunity to shine for fantasy players. Instead, he was a massive bust. Despite having the 13th-most targets last week, the young receiver finished 50th among wide receivers in air yards. Hopefully, Collins can bounce back next week.

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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