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Fantasy Football Smash City: Week 13 (2022)

Fantasy Football Smash City: Week 13 (2022)

The premise behind this article is simple. Identifying fantasy football smash plays – guys that you are either usually starting or are on the FLEX fringe that have massive boom/upside potential above expectation – for the upcoming week.

Embrace these guys, and don’t be afraid to start them over another “safer” option – preferably a higher-ranked option – from my Week 13 fantasy football rankings.

Batter up.

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Fantasy Football Smash City: Week 13

RUNNINGS BACKS

Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)

  • In full blowout fashion, Dameon Pierce carried the ball 5 times for 8 yards. in Week 12 However, he did see 6 targets (3 for 8) for a 30% target rate.
  • No. 2 RB Dare Ogunbowale got the first carry of the game and didn’t touch the ball until the middle of the 3rd quarter when he punched in a goal-line TD down 30-0.
  • Over the last two weeks he has totaled 15 carries for 16 yards and 5 catches for 17 yards. Other Texans RBs have combined for 1 carry in non-garbage time.
  • It’s still clearly Pierce’s backfield, and that’s why you need to go back to him in this plus-matchup.
  • The Browns have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to RBs this season allowing 5.2 yards per carry (2nd).
  • In Pierce’s last two home games against bad run defenses (LAC, PHI) he has rushed for over 130 yards.

Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA)

  • The Rams own the No.2-ranked red-zone defense and No. 1 defense in EPA.
  • But in back-to-back weeks they have lost their top two run defenders in Aaron Donald and A’Shawn Robinson.
  • Should be wheels up for Kenneth Walker who has struggled the last two weeks with 24 carries for just 43 yards.
  • Walker has ceded virtually no work to other Seattle RBs over that time, capturing 24 of 27 RB carries and 9 of 14 RB targets. 80% opportunity share.
  • Rams also rank 9th in fantasy points per game allowed to RBs since Week 6.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Christian Kirk (WR – JAX)

  • The Jaguars have gone pass-heavy in their last two games. 4%+ pass rate over expectation and 2nd in pass rate on early downs under neutral game script conditions.
  • The Detroit Lions are horrible vs slot WRs. Second most fantasy points allowed per game to slot WRs.
  • Since Week 6, they rank 5th in total fantasy points allowed to WRs, allowing 26.1 PPR points per game to slot WRs (dead last) and nearly two points more versus their season-long average (24.2).
  • Christian Kirk leads the NFL in targets (63) from the slot. Also ranks second in catches (39) and yards (515) when lined up inside.
  • And despite Zay Jones‘ boon in efficiency the last two weeks (31% target share), Kirk still owns a 28% target share over the last two weeks.
  • Kirk went 4 for 46 on 9 targets in Week 12. 95% route participation. BUY LOW. The Baltimore Ravens moved stud cornerback Marlon Humphrey into the slot to slow down Kirk. That won’t be the case in Week 13.
  • The Jaguars boast the No.1 OL/DL matchup advantage per PFF when they drop back to throw.
  • The Lions own the league’s second-worst red-zone defense the last 3 weeks.
  • Kirk ranks 8th in red-zone targets and 6th in targets from inside the 10-yard line.

Josh Palmer (WR – LAC)

  • The Raiders rank 31st in red-zone defense this season
  • Chargers’ Mike Williams is still not practicing
  • Josh Palmer ran a route on 100% of dropbacks in Week 12, catching 5 passes for 56 yards on 7 targets. Second on the team in air yards.
  • Last two weeks with Keenan Allen back in the fold, Palmer leads team in targets, receiving yards and air yards averaging over 20 PPR points per game.
  • Las Vegas ranks dead last in pass defense EPA. 4th in passing TDs allowed per game. Also only defense to allow a completion rate over 70% this season.
  • Raiders starting outside cornerback Sam Webb ranks 5th in most fantasy points allowed per route covered.

A.J. Brown (WR – PHI)

  • The Titans pass defense has allowed the highest percentage of receiving TDs in 2022. They are the quintessential pass-funnel defense that has faced the fewest number of rushing attempts and allowed the second-fewest amount of rushing yards at just 3.7 yards per clip to RBs.
  • DeVonta Smith – 38% target share over the last 2 weeks. 55% air yards share.
  • Smith and A.J. Brown have combined for 65% of the team’s targets since Dallas Goedert was placed on IR.
  • The Titans are allowing the second-most fantasy points to WRs this season. 1st to WRs aligned on the perimeter.
  • Bottom-10 defense versus WRs since Week 7.
  • 2nd in passing yards allowed per game.
  • Tennessee ranks 1st in most targets allowed to No. 1 WRs this season (9.5).
  • Also allowing the most receiving yards per game to WR3s and 4s (65.0).
  • Revenge game.
  • Quez Watkins is very interesting as a deeper play: top-50 WR for the last month.

George Pickens (WR – PIT)

  • George Pickens (21% target share) had more yardage on just 3 catches (57 yards) than Diontae Johnson in Week 12.
  • Pickens leads the Steelers in receiving yards since Kenny Pickett became the starting QB and since the team traded away Chase Claypool.
  • Atlanta gives up the 3rd most fantasy points to the WR position. Also second in air yards faced.
  • Dead last in pressure rate allowing ample opportunities for Pickett to deliver splash plays to Pickens downfield.
  • The rookie has compiled nearly 250 air yards over his last 3 games.

Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)

  • In four games without Zach Wilson at quarterback, Garrett Wilson has averaged a 23% target share, 5.75 receptions, 77 receiving yards and 19.4 PPR fantasy points per game
  • That includes two top-6 finishes in half-point scoring.
  • And over the last four weeks, Wilson has still balled out with a 26% target share, 5.25 receptions, 78.5 receiving yards and 16.25 PPR fantasy points per game.
  • Just last week with Mike White at quarterback, Wilson caught 5 balls for 85 yards and two TDs (29% target share) while leading the Jets in routes run (93%).
  • The Vikings rank dead last in in passing yards per game allowed overall (276) and 26th in red-zone defense.
  • They have allowed the most fantasy points per game to WRs since Week 6.
  • Wilson ranks second in the NFL in target rate inside the 10-yard line (46.7%).

TIGHT ENDS

Evan Engram (TE – JAX)

  • Tight end Evan Engram‘s egregious 1-for-4 Week 12 stat line looks even worse when you consider he played 81% of the snaps and ran a route on 81% of dropbacks (5th in Week 12).
  • But the elite usage is why you need to go directly back to Engram, when you consider the super juicy matchup.
  • The Lions are awful versus TEs: 4th in fantasy points allowed, 5th highest catch rate and third-most receiving TDs.

George Kittle (TE – SF)

  • Kittle leads the 49ers in receiving yards over the last two weeks.
  • The Miami Dolphins are allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to TEs this season
  • Second-highest catch rate allowed to TEs behind only the Arizona Cardinals.
  • Both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are dealing with injuries this week that could limit their workloads.

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