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Week 13 Quick Grades (2022 Fantasy Football Start or Sit Advice)

Dec 1, 2022
Week 13 Quick Grades (2022 Fantasy Football Start or Sit Advice)

Welcome to Week 13, friends. As always, we’re here to provide you with some fantasy football Quick Grades (or Start/Sit Grades, if you prefer) for the week.

We tapped into our consensus projections and rankings and Derek Brown’s weekly Primer to generate this week’s Quick Grades. See below for the results and accompanying notes.

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Week 13 QB Start/Sit Grades

Rank Grade Name Team Week 13
1 A+ Patrick Mahomes II KC CIN
2 A Jalen Hurts PHI TEN
3 A Josh Allen BUF NE
4 A Joe Burrow CIN KC
5 A Justin Herbert LAC LV
6 B+ Lamar Jackson BAL DEN
7 B Tua Tagovailoa MIA SF
8 B Trevor Lawrence JAC DET
9 B Dak Prescott DAL IND
10 B- Geno Smith SEA LAR
11 C+ Derek Carr LV LAC
12 C+ Jimmy Garoppolo SF MIA
13 C+ Justin Fields CHI GB
14 C Deshaun Watson CLE HOU
15 C- Jared Goff DET JAC
16 C- Tom Brady TB NO
17 D+ Kirk Cousins MIN NYJ
18 D Aaron Rodgers GB CHI
19 D Mike White NYJ MIN
20 D Kenny Pickett PIT ATL
21 D Marcus Mariota ATL PIT
22 D- Daniel Jones NYG WAS
23 F Ryan Tannehill TEN PHI
24 F Mac Jones NE BUF
25 F Taylor Heinicke WAS NYG
26 F Andy Dalton NO TB
27 F Russell Wilson DEN BAL
28 F Kyle Allen HOU CLE
29 F Matt Ryan IND DAL
30 F John Wolford LAR SEA
31 F Bryce Perkins LAR SEA
32 F Jordan Love GB CHI
33 F Malik Willis TEN PHI
34 F Jacoby Brissett CLE HOU
35 F Davis Mills HOU CLE
36 F Tyler Huntley BAL DEN
37 F Desmond Ridder ATL PIT
38 F Nathan Peterman CHI GB
39 F Jameis Winston NO TB
40 F Joe Flacco NYJ MIN
41 F Bailey Zappe NE BUF
42 F Gardner Minshew II PHI TEN
43 F Sam Howell WAS NYG
44 F Case Keenum BUF NE
45 F Sam Ehlinger IND DAL

Notes

Mac JonesAfter struggling for the entire season, Jones is finally coming out of his funk. Over the last two weeks, he’s seventh in PFF passing grade, fourth in yards per attempt, first in adjusted completion rate, and 16th in big-time throw rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). He destroyed Minnesota last week as the QB7 in fantasy. This week he looks to keep the train rolling against a reeling Buffalo secondary. The Bills’ pass defense hasn’t lived up to their lofty expectations since Week 7. Since then, they are 22nd in passing yards per game, 25th in EPA per drop back, and 22nd in explosive pass rate allowed. Jones is a strong QB2 that could again flirt with the top 12 if this game turns into a shootout.

Kenny PickettPickett is stuck in perennial QB2 purgatory. Since Week 10, his play has improved slightly as he ranks 19th in PFF passing grade, 23rd in adjusted completion rate, and 14th in big-time throw rate, but he’s only managed QB12, QB16, and QB25 weekly finishes. Luckily for Pickett, the Falcons remain a soft matchup for quarterbacks. Since Week 7, they are 19th in passing yards per game, 26th in EPA per dropback, and 15th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Marcus MariotaMariota’s passing shortcomings have proven too much for his rushing to make up for. Despite rushing for at least 24 yards in each of his last four games (at least 43 yards in two games), Mariota hasn’t finished as a QB1 since Week 8. Mariota hasn’t eclipsed 7.1 yards per attempt or 200 passing yards since Week 8. He’s ranked 25th in PFF passing grade and 41st in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). The Steelers should allow Mariota to finish with a decent stat line through the air. Since Week 7, they are 31st in passing yards per game, 29th in EPA per drop back, and 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed. Without Kyle Pitts and with Atlanta refusing to feature London, Mariota’s passing numbers are likely muted despite the glorious matchup. Mariota is a QB2.

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has been on fire. Over his last six games, he’s finished as a QB1 five times and is the QB11 in fantasy points per game over that stretch. Since Week 9, he’s second in PFF passing grade, tenth in yards per attempt, and second in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Lawrence is a strong QB1 against a weak Lions secondary. Since Week 7, Detroit is 30th in passing yards per game, 20th in EPA per drop back, and 31st in explosive pass rate. Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.

Jared GoffGoff remains a QB2 as his streak of QB2 finishes remains intact. Goff hasn’t cracked the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks since Week 4. It doesn’t help Goff that since Week 7, Detroit is tenth in red zone rushing rate, so his touchdown upside is sketchy at best. Goff is 17th in fantasy points per dropback, 13th in yards per attempt, and 23rd in true completion rate. Jacksonville offers Goff a chance to break the curse. Since Week 7, they have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have also ranked 31st in EPA per dropback and 28th in yards per attempt.

Mike White: The legend of Mike White grew even larger last week. White, in his first start of the season, finished with 315 passing yards and three scores as the QB6 for the week. White finished the week eighth in PFF passing grade, first in yards per attempt, and ninth in adjusted completion rate. These are all great things, but we also need a dose of reality mixed in here. White was also 26th in aDOT (5.9), so the truth is he was also making short throws, and his receivers were creating glory after the catch. The great thing for White is that this formula can be replicated successfully in Week 13. The Vikings have been a pass-funnel defense this season. Since Week 7, they are 32nd in passing yards per game, 29th in explosive pass rate, and 26 in success rate per dropback. Minnesota has also surrendered the 12th-most YAC, so White can pummel this defense with short throws once again. The Vikings’ 22nd ranked pressure rate should ensure he has clean pockets for most of the game. White is a QB2 that could find himself inside the top 12 again this week.

Kirk Cousins: Cousins came through last week as the QB9 in fantasy with 299 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Vikings effectively neutralized the Patriots’ pass rush last week, with Cousins quickly getting the ball out of his hands. He had the ninth-lowest time to throw and fourth-lowest aDOT last week. This will be the plan of attack again this week against a Jets front that’s fifth in pressure rate. New York is no cakewalk as they are seventh in passing yards per game, first in EPA per drop back, and fifth in explosive pass rate allowed since Week 7. They have allowed the 12th-fewest YAC and missed tackles, so don’t expect many 40-yard plays on a four-yard crossing route. Cousins is a borderline QB1/high-end QB2.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Week 13 WR Start/Sit Grades

Rank Grade Name Team Week 13
1 A+ Davante Adams LV LAC
2 A+ Tyreek Hill MIA SF
3 A+ Justin Jefferson MIN NYJ
4 A+ Stefon Diggs BUF NE
5 A+ CeeDee Lamb DAL IND
6 A+ A.J. Brown PHI TEN
7 A Amon-Ra St. Brown DET JAC
8 A Jaylen Waddle MIA SF
9 A Tee Higgins CIN KC
10 A Christian Kirk JAC DET
11 A Amari Cooper CLE HOU
12 A Ja’Marr Chase CIN KC
13 A DK Metcalf SEA LAR
14 A Chris Godwin TB NO
15 A Keenan Allen LAC LV
16 A- Tyler Lockett SEA LAR
17 A- Garrett Wilson NYJ MIN
18 A- Mike Evans TB NO
19 A- Chris Olave NO TB
20 A- Terry McLaurin WAS NYG
21 B+ Brandon Aiyuk SF MIA
22 B+ JuJu Smith-Schuster KC CIN
23 B Christian Watson GB CHI
24 B DeVonta Smith PHI TEN
25 B Deebo Samuel SF MIA
26 B Joshua Palmer LAC LV
27 B George Pickens PIT ATL
28 B Gabe Davis BUF NE
29 B Allen Lazard GB CHI
30 B Jakobi Meyers NE BUF
31 B Michael Pittman Jr. IND DAL
32 B- Courtland Sutton DEN BAL
33 B- Tyler Boyd CIN KC
34 C+ Zay Jones JAC DET
35 C+ Diontae Johnson PIT ATL
36 C+ Treylon Burks TEN PHI
37 C+ Darius Slayton NYG WAS
38 C+ Drake London ATL PIT
39 C+ Nico Collins HOU CLE
40 C Adam Thielen MIN NYJ
41 C Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE HOU
42 C Mack Hollins LV LAC
43 C Parris Campbell IND DAL
44 C Michael Gallup DAL IND
45 C Chase Claypool CHI GB
46 C Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC CIN
47 C Isaiah McKenzie BUF NE
48 C- Curtis Samuel WAS NYG
49 C- Van Jefferson LAR SEA
50 C- DeAndre Carter LAC LV
51 C- Corey Davis NYJ MIN
52 C- Devin Duvernay BAL DEN
53 C- Robert Woods TEN PHI
54 D+ Elijah Moore NYJ MIN
55 D+ D.J. Chark Jr. DET JAC
56 D+ Julio Jones TB NO
57 D Jarvis Landry NO TB
58 D+ Skyy Moore KC CIN
59 D Demarcus Robinson BAL DEN
60 D Olamide Zaccheaus ATL PIT
61 D Kendall Hinton DEN BAL
62 D Jahan Dotson WAS NYG
63 D- DeVante Parker NE BUF
64 D Alec Pierce IND DAL
65 D Marvin Jones Jr. JAC DET
66 D Chris Moore HOU CLE
67 D- Kalif Raymond DET JAC
68 D- Randall Cobb GB CHI
69 F Justin Watson KC CIN
70 F Quez Watkins PHI TEN
71 F Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN PHI
72 F Richie James Jr. NYG WAS
73 F K.J. Osborn MIN NYJ
74 F Nelson Agholor NE BUF
75 F Ben Skowronek LAR SEA
76 F Noah Brown DAL IND
77 F David Bell CLE HOU
78 F Trent Sherfield MIA SF
79 F Marquise Goodwin SEA LAR
80 F Josh Reynolds DET JAC
81 F Jauan Jennings SF MIA
82 F Jamal Agnew JAC DET
83 F Tutu Atwell LAR SEA
84 F Isaiah Hodgins NYG WAS
85 F Equanimeous St. Brown CHI GB
86 F Damiere Byrd ATL PIT
87 F Rashid Shaheed NO TB
88 F Phillip Dorsett II HOU CLE
89 F DeSean Jackson BAL DEN
90 F Kendrick Bourne NE BUF
91 F Denzel Mims NYJ MIN
92 F Keelan Cole Sr. LV LAC
93 F Byron Pringle CHI GB
94 F Dante Pettis CHI GB
95 F Braxton Berrios NYJ MIN
96 F Tyquan Thornton NE BUF
97 F Kenny Golladay NYG WAS
98 F Khalil Shakir BUF NE
99 F Jerry Jeudy DEN BAL
100 F Zach Pascal PHI TEN
101 F Sammy Watkins GB CHI
102 F Trenton Irwin CIN KC
103 F Tre’Quan Smith NO TB
104 F Steven Sims Jr. PIT ATL
105 F Brandon Powell LAR SEA
106 F Brandon Johnson DEN BAL
107 F James Proche II BAL DEN
108 F Gunner Olszewski PIT ATL
109 F Dyami Brown WAS NYG
110 F Romeo Doubs GB CHI
111 F KhaDarel Hodge ATL PIT
112 F Montrell Washington DEN BAL
113 F Lawrence Cager NYG WAS
114 F Velus Jones Jr. CHI GB
115 F Anthony Schwartz CLE HOU
116 F Jameson Williams DET JAC
117 F Ray-Ray McCloud SF MIA
118 F Marquez Callaway NO TB
119 F Michael Bandy LAC LV
120 F Marcus Johnson NYG WAS
121 F Cedrick Wilson Jr. MIA SF
122 F Scotty Miller TB NO
123 F Jalen Virgil DEN BAL
124 F Ashton Dulin IND DAL
125 F Kevin White NO TB
126 F River Cracraft MIA SF
127 F Tom Kennedy DET JAC
128 F Cam Sims WAS NYG
129 F Breshad Perriman TB NO
130 F Russell Gage TB NO
131 F Samori Toure GB CHI
132 F Jalen Reagor MIN NYJ
133 F Danny Gray SF MIA
134 F KaVontae Turpin DAL IND
135 F Tim Jones JAC DET
136 F Jalen Tolbert DAL IND
137 F Marcus Kemp KC CIN
138 F Stanley Morgan Jr. CIN KC
139 F Cornell Powell KC CIN
140 F Trent Taylor CIN KC
141 F Stanley Berryhill III DET JAC
142 F Tanner Gentry BUF NE
143 F N’Keal Harry CHI GB
144 F David Sills V NYG WAS
145 F Keke Coutee IND DAL
146 F Michael Woods II CLE HOU
147 F Jalen Nailor MIN NYJ
148 F Cody White PIT ATL
149 F DJ Turner LV LAC
150 F Mike Strachan IND DAL
151 F Amari Rodgers HOU CLE
152 F Jason Moore Jr. LAC LV
153 F Jeff Smith NYJ MIN

Notes

Garrett Wilson: Wilson has produced whenever he’s managed to receive catchable targets. Last week was one of those weeks where he vacuumed up a 28.6% target share with 95 receiving yards and two scores. Wilson is the WR31 in fantasy with a 22.6% target share, 22.9% air yard share, and 12 red zone targets (11th-best). Wilson is 12th in PFF receiving grade and 25th in yards per route run despite suffering through a 73.4% catchable target rate (69th, woof). Wilson will run about 53% of his routes against Duke Shelley (2021: 76.1% catch rate, 103.8 passer rating) and Patrick Peterson (60.9% catch rate, 72.0 passer rating) as a WR2.

Corey Davis: Last week, Davis returned to the lineup seeing a 10.7% target share with a 76.7% route run rate (second-highest among wide receivers behind only Wilson). Davis likely sees his route rate climb further this week with only him and Wilson remaining on the field in both 11 and 12 personnel. In Weeks 1-6, Davis had a 15.2% target share, 29.1% air yard share, and 15.2 aDOT. Davis was playing good football, ranking 27th in PFF receiving grade and 26th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). He managed four red zone targets in those six games. Davis will run about 77% of his routes against Shelley and Peterson as a WR4/5.

Elijah Moore: Pump the brakes, Moore truthers. Yes, he did pop off for 64 receiving yards and a score, but he wasn’t close to being a full-time player last week. Moore only saw a 7.1% target share and a 43.3% route run rate. Each of these numbers has to climb for him to get consideration for fantasy lineups. For now, he’s a stash, but don’t plug him into your lineups expecting the same type of state line, although the matchup is beautiful. When on the field, he’ll run about 61% of his routes against Chandon Sullivan (80% catch rate, 113.2 passer rating).

Treylon Burks: Since Burks’ breakout in Week 11, he has a 23% target share while averaging 90.5 receiving yards with a 40% team air yard share. He’s been targeted on 28% of his routes producing a whopping 3.62 yards per route run. Over the last two weeks, he’s finished as the WR12 and WR18 in fantasy, although we need to acknowledge that part of his WR18 finish was due to a fluke touchdown he was gifted after flopping on the ball. Burks is a talented rookie, but he’s in for a long day while running 79% of his routes against James Bradberry (45.7% catch rate, 44.4 passer rating) and Darius Slay (51.9% catch rate, 54.2 passer rating). Burks is a WR3.

Courtland Sutton: Sutton’s fantasy season has long been sunk. Wilson’s struggles. Nathaniel Hackett’s ineptitude. Pick a reason. The Denver offense is broken. Sutton is the WR37 in fantasy with a 24.5% target share and 28.9% air yard share. Volume hasn’t been the problem for Sutton, who has at least seven targets, five receptions, and 66 receiving yards in each of his last three games. The issue is as bad as this offense has been, he has zero ceiling without touchdowns along the way. Sutton hasn’t scored since Week 4, which happens to be his only time this season. Over the last three games, he’s been a high-floor WR3, finishing as the WR32, WR26, and WR30. Sutton is a WR3 that will run about 86% of his routes against Marcus Peters (69.2% catch rate, 120.0 passer rating) and Brandon Stephens (61% catch rate, 97.9 passer rating).

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Last week, Smith-Schuster only drew an 8.1% target share while handling a 45.7% route run rate. This could easily have been a means of easing him back in coming off the concussion in a game where they didn’t need to push him to win. In Weeks 1-9, Smith-Schuster had a 19.4% target share, 21.2% air yard share, and 2.05 yards per route run. He managed ten red zone targets. Assuming Smith-Schuster is a full-time player in Week 13, he’s a WR2 that will run about 56% of his routes against Eli Apple (56.3% catch rate, 95.6 passer rating) and Cam Taylor-Britt (78.9% catch rate, 127.9 passer rating). Toney was also a DNP on Wednesday. It looks like he could miss another week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling has been a role player. In Weeks 1-9, he had a 12.4% target share averaging 47.6 receiving yards per game with 1.36 yards per route run. He’s essentially Demarcus Robinson 2.0. A cardio king that will pop off for a big game in the week that you never considered playing him. Valdes-Scantling has finished outside the top 48 wide receivers in fantasy in seven of his 11 games. He’s a WR5/6.

Michael Pittman: Pittman is the WR18 in fantasy points per game with a 26.1% target share (18th) and 27.9% air yard share. Pittman is 34th in PFF receiving grade and 45th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). He’s been the chain mover for Indy with only two deep targets. With only eight red zone targets this season and two since Ryan’s return, Pittman’s lack of a role inside the 20 has been head-scratching all year. Pittman is a WR3 who could be erased by Trevon Diggs (63.6% catch rate, 81.3 passer rating) this week. Diggs followed Justin Jefferson on 82% of his routes in Week 11 and could easily do the same this week. Diggs limited Jefferson to two receptions and 19 receiving yards.

Fantas Football Start-Sit Assistant

Week 13 RB Start/Sit Grades

Rank Grade Name Team Week 13
1 A+ Austin Ekeler LAC LV
2 A+ Josh Jacobs LV LAC
3 A+ Nick Chubb CLE HOU
4 A Derrick Henry TEN PHI
5 A Rhamondre Stevenson NE BUF
6 A Jonathan Taylor IND DAL
7 A Kenneth Walker III SEA LAR
8 A Christian McCaffrey SF MIA
9 A Dalvin Cook MIN NYJ
10 A- Aaron Jones GB CHI
11 A- Saquon Barkley NYG WAS
12 A- Tony Pollard DAL IND
13 A- Dameon Pierce HOU CLE
14 B+ Alvin Kamara NO TB
15 B Travis Etienne Jr. JAC DET
16 B+ David Montgomery CHI GB
17 B Rachaad White TB NO
18 B Jamaal Williams DET JAC
19 B Isiah Pacheco KC CIN
20 B Jeff Wilson Jr. MIA SF
21 B Cordarrelle Patterson ATL PIT
22 B- Brian Robinson Jr. WAS NYG
23 B- Miles Sanders PHI TEN
24 B- Ezekiel Elliott DAL IND
25 C+ Joe Mixon CIN KC
26 C+ Gus Edwards BAL DEN
27 C+ Antonio Gibson WAS NYG
28 C Devin Singletary BUF NE
29 C Latavius Murray DEN BAL
30 C D’Andre Swift DET JAC
31 C Kyren Williams LAR SEA
32 C Samaje Perine CIN KC
33 C Kareem Hunt CLE HOU
34 C AJ Dillon GB CHI
35 C Najee Harris PIT ATL
36 C- Zonovan Knight NYJ MIN
37 C- JaMycal Hasty JAC DET
38 C- Cam Akers LAR SEA
39 D Tyler Allgeier ATL PIT
40 D Jerick McKinnon KC CIN
41 D James Cook BUF NE
42 D+ Ty Johnson NYJ MIN
43 D Dontrell Hilliard TEN PHI
44 D Kenyan Drake BAL DEN
45 D- Kenneth Gainwell PHI TEN
46 F Jaylen Warren PIT ATL
47 F Jordan Mason SF MIA
48 D+ Alexander Mattison MIN NYJ
49 F James Robinson NYJ MIN
50 F Leonard Fournette TB NO
51 F Matt Breida NYG WAS
52 F Justin Jackson DET JAC
53 D- Ameer Abdullah LV LAC
54 F Joshua Kelley LAC LV
55 F Boston Scott PHI TEN
56 F Deon Jackson IND DAL
57 F Darrynton Evans CHI GB
58 F Isaiah Spiller LAC LV
59 D Benny Snell Jr. PIT ATL
60 F Mark Ingram II NO TB
61 F Justice Hill BAL DEN
62 F Travis Homer SEA LAR
63 F Raheem Mostert MIA SF
64 F Caleb Huntley ATL PIT
65 F Tyrion Davis-Price SF MIA
66 F Marlon Mack DEN BAL
67 F Anthony McFarland Jr. PIT ATL
68 F Dare Ogunbowale HOU CLE
69 F Myles Gaskin MIA SF
70 F Michael Carter NYJ MIN
71 F Trestan Ebner CHI GB
72 F Zamir White LV LAC
73 F Nyheim Hines BUF NE
74 F Darrell Henderson Jr. JAC DET
75 F Kyle Juszczyk SF MIA
76 F DeeJay Dallas SEA LAR
77 F Ke’Shawn Vaughn TB NO
78 F Trayveon Williams CIN KC
79 F Rex Burkhead HOU CLE
80 F Tevin Coleman SF MIA
81 F Hassan Haskins TEN PHI
82 F Ronald Jones II KC CIN
83 F Gary Brightwell NYG WAS
84 F Chris Evans CIN KC
85 F Zack Moss IND DAL
86 F Pierre Strong Jr. NE BUF
87 F Mike Boone DEN BAL
88 F Eno Benjamin HOU CLE
89 F Avery Williams ATL PIT
90 F Giovani Bernard TB NO
91 F Brandon Bolden LV LAC
92 F Sony Michel LAC LV
93 F Salvon Ahmed MIA SF
94 F Kevin Harris NE BUF
95 F Alec Ingold MIA SF
96 F Patrick Ricard BAL DEN
97 F David Johnson NO TB
98 F Melvin Gordon III KC CIN
99 F Reggie Gilliam BUF NE
100 F Malik Davis DAL IND
101 F Snoop Conner JAC DET
102 F Jakob Johnson LV LAC
103 F C.J. Ham MIN NYJ
104 F Zander Horvath LAC LV
105 F Duke Johnson Jr. BUF NE
106 F D’Ernest Johnson CLE HOU
107 F Jonathan Williams WAS NYG
108 F Keith Smith ATL PIT
109 F Dwayne Washington NO TB
110 F Ronnie Rivers LAR SEA
111 F Patrick Taylor Jr. GB CHI
112 F Derek Watt PIT ATL
113 F Malcolm Brown LAR SEA
114 F Jordan Wilkins IND DAL
115 F Devine Ozigbo DEN BAL
116 F Khari Blasingame CHI GB
117 F Kene Nwangwu MIN NYJ
118 F Adam Prentice NO TB
119 F Michael Burton KC CIN
120 F Jerome Ford CLE HOU
121 F Tory Carter TEN PHI
122 F Taiwan Jones BUF NE

Notes

Alvin Kamara: Kamara is the RB13 in fantasy averaging 18 touches and 94.6 total yards. Apparently, I missed the memo that Kamara can only score touchdowns against the Raiders this season. That’s how it has played out. All three of his scores came in Week 8, and outside of that game, it’s been a barren wasteland for six-point dances. Kamara is 30th in red zone touches and seventh in weighted opportunity. While he’s not prime Kamara, he’s still good enough, ranking sixth in yards per route run, 29th in evaded tackles, and seventh in yards created per touch. Since Week 7, the Bucs are eighth in rush success rate, 23rd in rushing yards per game, and 30th in explosive run rate allowed. Kamara remains an RB1.

Rhamondre Stevenson: MONDRE SZN rolls on! Since Week 5, Stevenson has averaged 20 touches and 110.1 total yards per game. Since Week 7, he has led all running backs in target share (25.2%) and receiving yards per game while ranking second in receptions only to Austin Ekeler. As good as Stevenson is as a pass catcher, there’s an argument that he’s even better in the rushing department, ranking 11th in yards after contact per attempt, 21st in breakaway rate, and 19th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Buffalo’s recent struggles to stop the run continue as they are 25th in rushing yards per game, 24th in explosive run rate, and 30th in rushing success rate since Week 7. Stevenson is a top-shelf RB1.

Aaron Jones: Jones still owns the backfield averaging 16.5 touches and 79.5 total yards over their last two games. He’s played at least 66% of the snaps with a bump in his target share (19%) since Week 11. Jones isn’t slowing down as the season has progressed, ranking 24th in yards after contact per attempt, 15th in PFF’s elusive rating, and 16th in yards per route run. Jones ripped the Bears apart earlier this season with 18 touches and 170 total yards, and he’s poised to do it again. Since Week 7, Chicago is 15th in rushing success rate, 15th in rushing yards per game, and 25th in explosive run rate allowed. Jones is an RB1.

A.J. Dillon: Dillon was more efficient with his work last week, with 88 total yards, but the overall usage didn’t change. He still played 43% of the snaps, saw 11 touches, and ceded red zone work to Jones. With Jones handling most of the pass game work, Dillon has to get it done on the ground weekly to produce for fantasy. Last week’s touchdown was his first since Week 1. Dillon is tenth in juke rate and evaded tackles. With the plus rushing matchup incoming, he’s an RB3 with RB2 upside if he gets into the end zone.

David Montgomery: Montgomery saw Darrynton Evans cut into his work some last week with ten touches (67 total yards), and 32% of the snaps played, but Montgomery still led the way with 17 touches and 113 total yards. Montgomery is poised for some touchdown regression, with only one score over his last five games despite 14 red zone opportunities. Montgomery rattled off 122 rushing yards in Week 2 against this defense, and he’s primed for a repeat performance this week. Montgomery is seventh in missed tackles forced and 14th in PFF’s elusive rating. Since Week 7, Green Bay has been 24th in rushing success rate, 30th in rushing yards per game, and 26th in explosive run rate allowed. They have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game this season to running backs. Montgomery is a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside.

Saquon Barkley: Barkley has had a rough couple of games recently, averaging 16 touches and only 43.5 total yards in Weeks 11-12. Last week I noted that Barkley’s efficiency had begun to crater, but we have reached worrisome levels now. Barkley has seen his yards after contact per attempt drop in each of the last five weeks, with an abysmal 1.18 last week. Over his last seven games, he’s surpassed 2.50 yards after contact per attempt only once. Let’s also be clear this isn’t an offensive line issue. Since Week 5, he ranks 18th in yards before contact per carry, but he’s fourth worst in yards after contact per carry, with only Melvin Gordon, Jamaal Williams, and Devin Singletary finishing worst. Those names should open some eyes. This week doesn’t look any kinder to Barkley. Since Week 7, Washington is 13th in rushing success rate, fourth in rushing yards per game, and sixth in explosive run rate allowed. Barkley is a low-end volume-based RB1.

Miles Sanders: Sanders is coming off a huge game with 24 touches and 160 total yards. It would be wonderful to forecast another banner day for Sanders, but the Titans’ run defense and the Packers’ run defense aren’t even in the same area code. Sanders is the RB18 averaging 17.5 touches and 87.3 total yards. Sanders is 12th in evaded tackles, 25th in juke rate, and 21st in yards per touch. He’s also 12th in breakaway runs. With only a 6.0% target share, Sanders doesn’t have the pass game involvement to bail him out if the rushing yards and touchdowns aren’t there. Since Week 7, Tennessee has been fifth in rushing success rate, second in rushing yards per game, and fifth in explosive run rate allowed. Sanders is an RB2/3.

Latavius Murray: Bellcow Latavius Murray. About seven or eight years ago, I would have been jazzed to read that, but in 2022, it’s just sad. Murray played 82% of the snaps last week, turning his 14 touches into 98 total yards. I know you’ll read those numbers and wonder why I’m dismissing Murray so much. Well, 52 yards came on one run that was well blocked that I could have gained at least 15 yards on. Probably not, but you get where I’m going with this. Among 72 rushers with at least 25 carries, Murray ranks 71st in yards after contact per attempt, 56th in breakaway rate, and 59th in PFF’s elusive rating. That 52-yard scamper is his first breakaway run this season across 87 carries. Murray is running like a 32-year-old running back that shouldn’t be on an NFL roster, but it’s Denver, so here we are. Since Week 7, Baltimore has stonewalled running backs ranking top two in rushing yards, EPA per rush, and explosive run rate allowed. Murray is a touchdown or bust volume based RB3/4.

Gus Edwards: Edwards returned last week, playing 50% of snaps with 16 carries, 52 rushing yards, and a touchdown. He handled 84.2% of the rushing work and 85% of the red zone opportunities for the running back room. Edwards sits at 15th in yards after contact per attempt and 13th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Since Week 7, Denver has fallen off some as a rushing defense. Since then, they are 24th in rushing yards per game, 16th in EPA per rush, and 18th in explosive run rate allowed. Edwards is an RB3 that needs a touchdown to pay off.

Week 13 TE Start/Sit Grades

Rank Grade Name Team Week 13
1 A+ Travis Kelce KC CIN
2 A Mark Andrews BAL DEN
3 A- George Kittle SF MIA
4 B+ T.J. Hockenson MIN NYJ
5 B Dalton Schultz DAL IND
6 B- Pat Freiermuth PIT ATL
7 C+ Foster Moreau LV LAC
8 C Cole Kmet CHI GB
9 C Gerald Everett LAC LV
10 C Hayden Hurst CIN KC
11 C- Dawson Knox BUF NE
12 D+ Evan Engram JAC DET
13 D+ Tyler Higbee LAR SEA
14 D Greg Dulcich DEN BAL
15 D Tyler Conklin NYJ MIN
16 D Taysom Hill NO TB
17 D Logan Thomas WAS NYG
18 D Robert Tonyan GB CHI
19 D Noah Fant SEA LAR
20 D- Hunter Henry NE BUF
21 D- Mike Gesicki MIA SF
22 D- Harrison Bryant CLE HOU
23 F Austin Hooper TEN PHI
24 F Juwan Johnson NO TB
25 F Jordan Akins HOU CLE
26 F Will Dissly SEA LAR
27 F Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN PHI
28 F Jelani Woods IND DAL
29 F Jonnu Smith NE BUF
30 F Cameron Brate TB NO
31 F Cade Otton TB NO
32 F Kylen Granson IND DAL
33 F Brock Wright DET JAC
34 F Jack Stoll PHI TEN
35 F Noah Gray KC CIN
36 F Adam Trautman NO TB
37 F Isaiah Likely BAL DEN
38 F Josh Oliver BAL DEN
39 F Mo Alie-Cox IND DAL
40 F C.J. Uzomah NYJ MIN
41 F MyCole Pruitt ATL PIT
42 F John Bates WAS NYG
43 F Teagan Quitoriano HOU CLE
44 F Jody Fortson KC CIN
45 F Colby Parkinson SEA LAR
46 F O.J. Howard HOU CLE
47 F Zach Gentry PIT ATL
48 F Tre’ McKitty LAC LV
49 F Jake Ferguson DAL IND
50 F Grant Calcaterra PHI TEN
51 F Daniel Bellinger NYG WAS
52 F James Mitchell DET JAC
53 F Parker Hesse ATL PIT
54 F Tanner Hudson NYG WAS
55 F Durham Smythe MIA SF
56 F Geoff Swaim TEN PHI
57 F Peyton Hendershot DAL IND
58 F Dan Arnold JAC DET
59 F Josiah Deguara GB CHI
60 F Johnny Mundt MIN NYJ
61 F Anthony Firkser ATL PIT
62 F Cole Turner WAS NYG
63 F Eric Saubert DEN BAL
64 F Chris Myarick NYG WAS
65 F Connor Heyward PIT ATL
66 F Pharaoh Brown CLE HOU
67 F Shane Zylstra DET JAC
68 F Marcedes Lewis GB CHI
69 F Eric Tomlinson DEN BAL
70 F Brycen Hopkins LAR SEA
71 F Ross Dwelley SF MIA
72 F Mitchell Wilcox CIN KC
73 F Ko Kieft TB NO
74 F Chris Manhertz JAC DET
75 F Richard Rodgers LAC LV
76 F Tyree Jackson PHI TEN
77 F Nick Boyle BAL DEN
78 F Tyler Davis GB CHI
79 F Trevon Wesco CHI GB
80 F Tyler Kroft SF MIA
81 F Stone Smartt LAC LV
82 F Ryan Griffin CHI GB
83 F Charlie Woerner SF MIA
84 F Sean McKeon DAL IND
85 F Jacob Hollister LV LAC
86 F Jacob Harris LAR SEA
87 F Kevin Rader TEN PHI
88 F Devin Asiasi CIN KC
89 F Kenny Yeboah NYJ MIN
90 F Luke Farrell JAC DET
91 F Hunter Long MIA SF

Notes

Greg Dulcich: Dulcich’s stat lines have sunk like the Titanic as this entire offense prays for the Week 18 iceberg to end this dreadful Broncos’ season. Dulcich’s peripherals still look fine, as he has a 14.9% target share, 68.3% route run rate, and 1.43 yards per route run. The problem is that the meat of those statistics came in his first three games. He hasn’t crossed the 40-yard receiving threshold since Week 8. Dulcich is a TE2 with a favorable matchup. Baltimore has allowed the sixth-highest catch rate and eighth-most touchdowns (tied) to tight ends.

Mark Andrews: Andrews’ stat line would have looked better last week if he hadn’t dropped an easy touchdown. Regardless, Andrews is a top-three tight end weekly. He is top-three among tight ends in target share, target rate per route run, deep targets, and red zone targets. You’re playing him weekly regardless of the matchup if you have Andrews. Denver is eighth in DVOA, holding tight ends to the 12th-lowest catch rate and only three receiving touchdowns.

Tyler Higbee: Higbee played 59% of the snaps last week and didn’t draw a single target. With the quarterback play for this offense hitting a new low and running the ball now the main focus, we can toss out most of the full-season stats for Higbee. Higbee becomes a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 weekly based on the matchups. This week’s opponent makes his streamer worthy. Seattle is 27th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the second-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game.

Mike Gesicki: Gesicki has become an afterthought in this offense. Since Week 8, he has had a 7.5% target share (2.5 targets per game), averaging 18 receiving yards with a 57.9% route run rate and 0.82 yards per route run. Gesicki is a TE2. The 49ers are ninth in DVOA against the tight end, holding them to the second-lowest yards per reception and fifth-lowest fantasy points per game.

George Kittle: Kittle could blow up with a vintage game this week. He’s the TE6 seeing an 18.4% target share (eighth-best) and 15.3% air yard share (seventh-best). Kittle is ranked ninth in PFF receiving grade and sits at 11th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). Miami can’t guard tight ends this season, ranking 29th in DVOA, bleeding out the third-highest catch rate, sixth-highest receiving yards per game, and third-most fantasy points per game. Kittle could fight Kelce for TE1 overall this week.

Gerald Everett: Everett is the TE9 in fantasy points per game with a 14.3% target share and 62.1% route participation clip. He’s sixth among tight ends in red zone targets while also ranking 21st in yards per route run. Everett has been a top-ten fantasy tight end four times this season. This week’s matchup against the Raiders could be his fifth. The Raiders have surrendered the eighth-highest catch rate and fifth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to tight ends. Everett is a TE1.

Foster Moreau: Since assuming the starting role, Moreau has a 15.6% target share, 38.5% end zone target share, and 81.4% route run rate. Since Week 7, he’s 17th in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Moreau is a TE1. Los Angeles is 26th in DVOA, allowing the highest yards per reception and 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

CTAs

Week 13 D/ST Start/Sit Grades

Rank Grade Name Team Week 13
1 A+ Dallas Cowboys DAL IND
2 A+ Baltimore Ravens BAL DEN
3 A Seattle Seahawks SEA LAR
4 A- Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB NO
5 A- New York Jets NYJ MIN
6 B+ Buffalo Bills BUF NE
7 B+ Washington Commanders WAS NYG
8 B Philadelphia Eagles PHI TEN
9 B Cleveland Browns CLE HOU
10 B- Pittsburgh Steelers PIT ATL
11 B- Kansas City Chiefs KC CIN
12 C+ Minnesota Vikings MIN NYJ
13 C San Francisco 49ers SF MIA
14 C New England Patriots NE BUF
15 C Denver Broncos DEN BAL
16 C Green Bay Packers GB CHI
17 C- Atlanta Falcons ATL PIT
18 C- Tennessee Titans TEN PHI
19 D+ New York Giants NYG WAS
20 D Miami Dolphins MIA SF
21 D Indianapolis Colts IND DAL
22 D- New Orleans Saints NO TB
23 F Chicago Bears CHI GB
24 F Los Angeles Chargers LAC LV
25 F Jacksonville Jaguars JAC DET
26 F Cincinnati Bengals CIN KC
27 F Houston Texans HOU CLE
28 F Los Angeles Rams LAR SEA
29 F Detroit Lions DET JAC
30 F Las Vegas Raiders LV LAC

 

Week 13 K Start/Sit Grades

Rank Grade Name Team Week 13
1 A Justin Tucker BAL DEN
2 B+ Harrison Butker KC CIN
3 B+ Tyler Bass BUF NE
4 B Jason Myers SEA LAR
5 B Brett Maher DAL IND
6 B- Daniel Carlson LV LAC
7 C+ Evan McPherson CIN KC
8 C+ Cameron Dicker LAC LV
9 C+ Ryan Succop TB NO
10 C Robbie Gould SF MIA
11 C Cade York CLE HOU
12 C Nick Folk NE BUF
13 C Younghoe Koo ATL PIT
14 C Greg Zuerlein NYJ MIN
15 C Greg Joseph MIN NYJ
16 C Jason Sanders MIA SF
17 C- Jake Elliott PHI TEN
18 C- Michael Badgley DET JAC
19 C- Matthew Wright PIT ATL
20 C- Riley Patterson JAC DET
21 D+ Joey Slye WAS NYG
22 D+ Graham Gano NYG WAS
23 D+ Mason Crosby GB CHI
24 D Wil Lutz NO TB
25 D Chase McLaughlin IND DAL
26 D Ka’imi Fairbairn HOU CLE
27 D Caleb Shudak TEN PHI
28 D Cairo Santos CHI GB
29 D- Brandon McManus DEN BAL
30 D- Matt Gay LAR SEA

 

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