NFL DFS Week 13 Stacking Advice & Strategy (2022 Fantasy Football)
We have reached December and now face a different level of DFS. We find December a bit easier to cash in because most people who have failed to make the playoffs are “zoning out” on their fantasy teams. This change in their teams brings them to DFS for a “fresh start” in the season. As an experienced player, you can cash more now in this month than others. We reach our cashing potential by attacking the correct games/stacks against these newcomers. Let’s break down the best options in this slate for Week 13.
This stack is my favorite price point due to how low Trevor Lawrence is priced on this slate, i.e., Draftkings has him at $5,900. This game has a potential shootout written all over it with the poor play from both defenses this season. The OU of this game sits at 51.5, and Lawrence faces a defense with a passing defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) of 19th in the NFL this week after just providing us with a statement win last week. He will need to throw and put up points as his Jaguars’ defense is 30th in passing DVOA and will allow points to be scored on them, but more on that in a moment.
Let’s discuss Christain Kirk and Zay Jones for a moment. Kirk has had 21 targets in the last two games and faces a premium WR/CB matchup this week with Detroit. We also have Zay Jones, a perfect salary relief pivot who has received 24 targets in the last two weeks. Zay Jones is an exciting play if Jeff Okudah misses the game this week, so keep your eye on that injury update over the week.
We finish this section with Amon-Ra St. Brown. He tends to make this article every week, and for a good reason. When creating the narrative we think the game will follow, Amon-Ra is the most straightforward player to predict as he is the majority of the Detroit Lions offense. You know he will see double-digit targets. He will probably finish with a stat line of seven receptions and 70 receiving yards. With Amon-Ra facing the 30th passing DVOA in the NFL this week, we should expect a touchdown (maybe even two) attached to his stat line, which will allow us to break the ceiling of our lineup’s potential within one game.
This game has a potential shootout written all over it as they face the Kansas City Chiefs. Let’s not forget that when Joe Burrow met them in two games last season, he threw for 696 and 6 scores. Burrow is also averaging 27 ppg over his last six games. He has also scored 31.7 or more in half of those games.
The Chiefs are 24th in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks despite giving up 17.6 points combined in games vs. Malik Willis and Bryce Perkins in their recent affairs, which leads to a potential boom game from Joe Burrow.
In their other nine games, they’ve given up 20 or more points to opposing quarterbacks six times, 17 or more points in eight of nine and at least 16 in all nine.
Let’s remember that Joe Burrow is getting Ja’Marr Chase back, which means Higgins should see some coverage fall off of him and allow him more freedom within this game. Even with the coverage focused on him while Chase was off the field, Higgins was no slouch. He has nine straight games with double digits points and exploded the last two weeks with back-to-back 27-point outings(which we tried to tell you about last week).
Since we spoke of the matchups from last year for Burrow, let’s remember that Higgins did well in these games too. Yes, Chase was able to produce, but so did Higgins. he had over 160 yards and a score in those two games. The Chiefs do struggle with WR2 during this season, as they have a DVOA of 18 against the position. They are allowing an average of 6.7 receptions and 52 yards on average. Expect Higgins to surpass those numbers in this potential 60-point shootout.
This Raiders defense is one we should always pick on because it’s terrible. First is the quarterback (QB) spot, where they allow the third-highest amount of Draftkings Fantasy Points Per Game to QBs. They also allow the eighth-highest passing yards and the third-most passing touchdowns. This game has the potential shootout narrative, and I can see Herbert reaching 4x his salary this week. With the Raiders allowing the sixth most completions and the Chargers being known for going for it on fourth down, giving us more opportunity, Herbert has high hopes of paying off immensely for your lineup.
Now let’s discuss Austin Ekeler. Ekeler is averaging 23.6 points on Draftkings(my preferred site) this season. Is Ekeler a cheat code for DK? The answer is yes!
Ekeler has 80 receptions this season; let me repeat it. EKELER HAS 80 RECEPTIONS THIS SEASON. Last week he had over 20% of the target share due to Mike Williams being out, which looks to be the trend again this week. He now gets a Raiders defense that allows the fifth-highest FPPG to RB on DK. This defense, in particular, is a perfect match for Ekeler’s skill sets as the Raiders allow the third most receptions to running backs, the most receiving yards and the third highest amount of receiving touchdowns to RB. We tie all this into the fact that the Raiders are 23rd in rushing DVOA, and this is the best holiday season concoction you can put in your lineup this week.
Finally, we reach Foster Moreau. He is a cheaper tight end in pricing, which is always friendly to our lineups. The Chargers have allowed ten touchdowns to the tight end position, and this play only gets juicier if Josh Jacobs, for some reason, misses the game.
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Remember to have some fun making your lineups, and if you need any help with construction, you can reach out to me on Twitter at @jpep20.