New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -7.5, O/U 42.5
• Patriots vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Kansas City has to lose against the Raiders for the Bills to have a chance at the No. 1 seed. Buffalo will go all out if Kansas City is upset. Even if the Chiefs win, I expect the Bills to push for a win. If they lose this week, they could end up on a neutral field instead of playing at home. If the Bills pull their starters late, they have put up a ton of points, so their players likely have put up nice fantasy scores. New England can make the playoffs with a win. Their starters will handle their usual roles.

Josh Allen: We’re getting skinny with a Josh Allen stack here. The Patriots’ run defense has been stout, and the Bills’ backfield usage unpredictable, so I’m fading Devin Singletary and James Cook and making the bet that Allen is the goal-line back we need. The Patriots have been tough against tight ends, and Gabriel Davis has never topped 42 receiving yards against this defense, so I’m limiting Allen to a pairing with his man Stefon Diggs. Allen ranks sixth in PFF passing grade, 12th in yards per attempt, and second in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Allen faces a Patriots’ secondary that has shown vulnerability recently. Since Week 12, they have been 30th in passing yards per game, 22nd in explosive pass rate allowed, and 26th in success rate per dropback.

Jakobi Meyers: With Damien Harris returning last week, the Patriots’ backfield has reverted to a split workload situation, so Meyers is the only Patriot I’m investing in. In the ten games Meyers has played at least 80% of the snaps, he has had a 25.4% target share, a 28.9% air yard share, an 85.7% route run rate, and 2.18 yards per route run. Meyers has two red zone targets and two touchdowns over his last two games. Meyers ranks 21st out of 82 qualifying wide receivers in open rate. Meyers will run about 69% of his routes against Taron Johnson (72.7% catch rate, 108.7 passer rating). Since Week 12, the Bills have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Meyers was limited in practice all week (shoulder). He’s been listed as questionable. I expect him to be a full-go.

Stefon Diggs: Diggs has been chirping for more targets recently. This is a perfect time to feed this monster. Diggs ranks tenth in target share, 15th in air-yard share, and fourth in red zone targets among wide receivers. He is ranked eighth in open rate, immediately behind Justin Jefferson. Diggs will run about 65% of his routes against Jonathan Jones (53.9% catch rate, 71.2 passer rating) and Tae Hayes (three career targets defended).

KC vs. LV | TEN vs. JAC | BAL vs. CIN | TB vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI | HOU vs. IND | NYJ vs. MIA | CAR vs. NO | CLE vs. PIT | LAC vs. DEN | NYG vs. PHI | ARI vs. SF | LAR vs. SEA | DAL vs. WAS | DET vs. GB

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

• MIN -7.5, O/U 43.5
• Vikings vs. Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Bears have sounded iffy about playing their starters. Justin Fields is out, so count me out on the Bears’ offense. The Vikings could attain the No. 2 seed with a win & a 49ers loss, so I expect the Vikings to keep their foot to the metal. The 49ers play in the afternoon, so the Vikings must grab a win even to have a chance at the two seed. Kevin O’Connell has stated that he won’t be sitting starters, but he would rather reduce some snap counts for some players.

Kevin O’Connell said any adjustments to playing time this week would be "more subtle than" sitting starters out. With the No. 2 seed in play, it'd likely be more a matter of reducing snap counts for some players.

— Ben Goessling (@BenGoessling) January 2, 2023

Kirk Cousins: Before imploding last week against the Packers, Cousins had reeled off three straight games of at least 24 fantasy points, 299 passing yards, and two passing touchdowns. Look for Cousins to rebound with a stellar game this week. Cousins ranks fourth in passing yards, sixth in passing touchdowns, and top-ten in deep ball and red zone completion rates. Chicago has dissolved into a trainwreck pass defense. Since Week 12, they are 29th in success rate per dropback, 30th in EPA per drop back, and 23rd in explosive pass rate allowed.

Dalvin Cook: Cook could have his workload limited this week, but against this swiss cheese run defense, he can walk away with a nice stat line despite a possible cap on his carries. Cook ranks 13th in yards after contact per attempt, eighth in runs of ten-plus yards, and 20th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 75 carries). Since Week 12, Chicago ranks 29th in rushing success rate, 31st in fantasy points per game, and 32nd in yards per carry allowed to running backs.

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson has been an elite player all season. He’s 194 receiving yards away from breaking Calvin Johnson’s single season receiving yardage record. The Bears don’t have a corner on their roster that can hang with Jefferson. I expect them to push for this record.

KC vs. LV | TEN vs. JAC | BAL vs. CIN | TB vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI | HOU vs. IND | NYJ vs. MIA | CAR vs. NO | CLE vs. PIT | LAC vs. DEN | NYG vs. PHI | ARI vs. SF | LAR vs. SEA | DAL vs. WAS | DET vs. GB

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

• IND -2.5, O/U 38
• Cowboys vs. Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Neither franchise has been in contention for weeks (or ever). Each has still been going full bore with a lesser cast of characters. I don’t expect that to change. I’m fading each offense outside of Zack Moss and Chris Moore, who draw extremely favorable matchups which could lead to productive days. I won’t be surprised if this game hits the under with the game total, but we can mine this mini stack from a gross game.

Chris Moore: While Moore hasn’t come close to matching his amazing Week 14 stat line, that’s not why he makes the Primer this week. Moore has played 52-68% of the snaps from the slot over the last two weeks. The Colts have been bleeding fantasy points to opposing slot receivers. Since Week 13, without Kenny Moore, the Colts have allowed the most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Since Week 15, Moore has had a 17.2% target share, a 20% end zone target share, a 22.3% air yard share, and two red zone targets. Moore will match up against Jullian Blackmon (84.6% catch rate, 141.2 passer rating).

Zack Moss: Since Week 15, Moss has been in the driver’s seat for the Colts’ backfield playing 59-69% of the snaps while averaging 17.3 touches and 75 total yards. Moss has only two targets over the last two weeks, so if you’re playing Moss, it’s for his rushing equity. Moss has run well over the last two weeks. Since Week 16, among 54 rushers with at least ten carries, he has been 19th in yards after contact, sixth in missed tackles forced, and 11th in PFF’s elusive rating. The Texans remain a wretched run defense that even Moss might be able to take advantage of. Since Week 12, they have been 26th in rushing yards per game, 29th in explosive run rate, and 20th in explosive run rate allowed. Moss should flirt with 20 opportunities this week.

KC vs. LV | TEN vs. JAC | BAL vs. CIN | TB vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI | HOU vs. IND | NYJ vs. MIA | CAR vs. NO | CLE vs. PIT | LAC vs. DEN | NYG vs. PHI | ARI vs. SF | LAR vs. SEA | DAL vs. WAS | DET vs. GB

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

• NYJ -0.5, O/U 38.5
• Jets vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Dolphins need a win and a Patriots loss to get into the playoffs. The Jets have been eliminated from playoff contention, but expect them to still run out their guys in a full-time capacity. Both teams will give it their all. With the Jets fielding a shutdown pass defense all season and the Dolphins starting Skylar Thompson, I’m out on the Fins receiving options. I am willing to invest in their ground game, though. Miami could lean on their rushing attack.

Joe Flacco: In his brief three-game run as the Jet’s starter earlier this season, he tossed for at least 285 in every game while also posting a four-touchdown game. These numbers were fueled by Flacco averaging an insane 51.7 passing attempts per game. While I don’t expect him to come close to that number, it illustrates that the Jets have no qualms with letting him chuck it. Yes, the team was trailing for much of the day in two of those three games, but the point here is that Flacco should see a healthy passing volume. The weakness of the Dolphins’ defense resides through the air. Since Week 13, Miami has been 24th in passing yards per game, 28th in EPA per drop back, and 26th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Week 17

Jeff Wilson: Wilson has resumed his lead-back role over the last two weeks playing 60-65% of the snaps averaging 14 touches and 58 total yards. Mostert has out-touched him in the red zone (five vs. three) over the last two weeks, so that’s a concern for Wilson. Wilson held the advantage in rushing attempts and routes last week, though. The pass-game usage was nice to see for Wilson last week. Wilson ranks fifth in yards per reception, 13th in yards per touch, and tenth in breakaway run rate. Since Week 12, New York ranks 23rd in rushing yards per game and 24th in explosive run rate allowed.

Garrett Wilson: Wilson has a 23.3.% target share, a 28.2% air yard share, and a 25.2% target per route run rate. He’s eighth in red zone targets, and 34th in total route wins among wide receivers. Wilson has proven he can fill the box score regardless of who is under center for the Jets. Wilson will run about 61% of his routes against Noah Igbinoghene (47.8% catch rate, 77.1 passer rating) and Keion Crossen (58.6% catch rate, 111.7 passer rating).

Tyler Conklin: Conklin is a cheap mini stack partner with El Jefe. He’s a matchup-based play. Miami has struggled all year to stop tight ends. They are 32nd in catch rate, 25th in receiving yards per game, and 30th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

KC vs. LV | TEN vs. JAC | BAL vs. CIN | TB vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI | HOU vs. IND | NYJ vs. MIA | CAR vs. NO | CLE vs. PIT | LAC vs. DEN | NYG vs. PHI | ARI vs. SF | LAR vs. SEA | DAL vs. WAS | DET vs. GB