Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -14, O/U 40.5
• Cardinals vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The 49ers can take the No. 1 seed if they win and the Eagles lose. Expect them to play their starters all game. Christian McCaffrey is banged up, so the team could split the work in the backfield. That’s why he isn’t included here, despite my optimism that the team will push for the win. Arizona has been out of the playoff picture.

Brock Purdy: Purdy hasn’t flashed a massive ceiling, with only one 20-plus fantasy point game this season as the starter. Still, with multiple passing touchdowns and a season-high 284 passing yards in Week 17, it’s also arguable that we haven’t seen his absolute ceiling yet. Purdy ranks 18th in PFF passing grade, fifth in yards per attempt, and tenth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). The Cardinals could elicit a huge performance from Purdy. Since Week 12, they have been 21st in success rate per dropback and 15th in passing yards per game. The 49ers’ passing attack is built upon creating after the catch, and there’s no defense in the NFL that’s allowed receivers to do this more. Arizona ranks 32nd in YAC and 28th in missed tackles allowed.

Deebo Samuel: Samuel has begun this week practicing in full, so it looks like he’ll be back this week. Samuel only has half of one game with Purdy as the starter, so it’s difficult to surmise Purdy’s fondness for him. Just approaching the matchup, Samuel (assuming he’s a full go) should be a central figure in their offensive attack. Despite the missed time, Samuel still leads the team in YAC while ranking third in YAC per reception among wide receivers (minimum 25 targets). Samuel has a 25.9% target share (17th) and 11 red zone targets this season. Samuel will run about 59% of his routes against Christian Matthew (65% catch rate, 101.0 passer rating) and Jace Whittaker (88% catch rate, 106.7 passer rating). Since Week 15, Arizona has operated in zone coverage on 66-72% of their snaps. Samuel has seen 71.8% of his target share against the coverage, ranking 12th in PFF receiving grade and 18th in yards per route (minimum 12 zone targets).

Greg Dortch: Last week, with David Blough tossing passes, Dortch handled a 26.3% target share while running about 78% of his routes from the slot. The 49ers have been eaten alive by slot receivers all year. They have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers. Dortch should see another high-volume game matching up against Jimmie Ward (81.8% catch rate, 94.0 passer rating).

George Kittle: Kittle has been a monster with Purdy under center. He has had a 25.2% target share, a 75% end zone target share, a 28.9% air yard share, and 2.9 yards per route run. This has occurred without Samuel in the lineup, which is notable. Kittle’s splits without Samuel have been nice. With Samuel in the lineup, Kittle’s fantasy points per game (PPR) have fallen from 15.6 to 14.3, and his receiving touchdowns have dipped from 0.73 per game to 0.36. This doesn’t mean that Kittle can’t continue his run of dominance, but Samuel’s return could sting. Arizona remains a prime matchup for tight ends ranking 32nd in fantasy points per game, 31st in catch rate, and 30th in receiving yards per game conceded to tight ends.

KC vs. LV | TEN vs. JAC | BAL vs. CIN | TB vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI | HOU vs. IND | NYJ vs. MIA | CAR vs. NO | CLE vs. PIT | LAC vs. DEN | NYG vs. PHI | ARI vs. SF | LAR vs. SEA | DAL vs. WAS | DET vs. GB

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

• SEA -6.5, O/U 41.5
• Rams vs. Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Rams have been out of the playoff picture for weeks. They will play their starters as they have been. Seattle needs a win and a Packers loss to get in. With Green Bay playing later, Seattle is going all out.

Geno Smith: The last time Chef Geno faced the Rams, he broiled them with 367 passing yards, 9.4 yards per attempt, and three passing scores. Smith is ranked tenth in yards per attempt, 12th in fantasy points per dropback, and fourth in true completion rate. Smith should have another fantastic day against a secondary that, since Week 12, has been 31st in success rate per dropback, 27th in EPA per drop back, and 26th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Kenneth Walker: The Seahawks have been limiting Walker’s overall snaps over the last two weeks (53-57%) by pulling him off the field in passing situations (27.8% route run rate) as he plays through injury. That doesn’t mean the team has limited his volume. Since Week 16, Walker has averaged 24.5 carries and 120 rushing yards. He’s been effective with at least 3.25 yards after contact per attempt in two of his last three games. The Rams have also declined as a run defense recently without Aaron Donald. Since Week 12, they have been 26th in rushing success rate, 22nd in rushing yards per game, and 26th in EPA per rush.

Cam Akers: AKERS IS BACK! If you’ve read the Primer, you know this isn’t a new development. I’ve been tooting the Akers horn for weeks. Over the last two games, he averaged 22.5 touches and 140 yards. Since Week 10, Akers has been ranked 18th in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in missed tackles forced, and fourth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 40 carries). Since Week 12, Seattle has been 28th in rushing success rate, 31st in rushing yards per game, and 23rd in explosive run rate allowed.

Tyler Lockett: Lockett only played 32% of the snaps last week. He didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday before sneaking in a limited session on Friday (shin). Lockett won’t be a core play for me, but if you’re playing Geno Smith, he’s in play for stacks. His health and snap share uncertainty are the only reasons he doesn’t make the core play list. Lockett has a 22.6% target share, a 30.0% air yard share, and ranks 23rd in deep targets. He has seen 63.1% of his target volume against zone, ranking 11th in PFF receiving grade and 12th in yards per route run against the coverage (minimum 15 zone targets). He will run about 55% of his routes against Ramsey and Hill.

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf has commanded a 25.4% target share (19th) and 36.2% air yard share (tenth-best) this season. He is 13th in deep targets and first in red zone targets among wide receivers. Metcalf will run about 83% of his routes against Jalen Ramsey (64.6% catch rate, 108.7 passer rating) and Troy Hill (69.1% catch rate, 95.0 passer rating). Ramsey and Hill have operated in zone coverage on 63-66.8% of their coverage snaps this season. Metcalf has seen 52.7% of his target volume against zone, ranking 31st in PFF receiving grade and 40th in yards per route run (minimum 15 zone targets).

Tyler Higbee: With Mayfield under center, Higbee has garnered a 23.5% target share (5.8 targets per game) with a 50% end zone target share, a 68.1% route run rate, and 1.77 yards per route run. Seattle has been dreadful at stopping tight ends ranking 31st in fantasy points per game, 31st in receiving yards per game, and 32nd in yards per reception allowed.

KC vs. LV | TEN vs. JAC | BAL vs. CIN | TB vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI | HOU vs. IND | NYJ vs. MIA | CAR vs. NO | CLE vs. PIT | LAC vs. DEN | NYG vs. PHI | ARI vs. SF | LAR vs. SEA | DAL vs. WAS | DET vs. GB

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

• DAL -7.5, O/U 41
• Cowboys vs. Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Dallas is heavily motivated here, with the No. 1 seed and NFC East crown both still in play. If Philly loses to the Giants and they beat the Commanders, the Cowboys would win the NFC East. They need losses by Philly and the 49ers for the No. 1 seed. While Ron Rivera remains shocked, the Commanders are out of playoff contention. They are starting Sam Howell, so expect them to give him a full complement of weapons in this game. I expect Washington to play their starters as long as this game is competitive.

Dak Prescott: Since Week 9, Prescott has ranked 14th in PFF passing grade, eighth in adjusted completion rate, eighth in yards per attempt, and 15th in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Dallas could opt to lean on their rushing attack here. Since Week 12, Washington has ranked seventh in success rate per dropback, fifth in passing yards per game, and seventh in explosive pass rate allowed. Prescott is a large-field GPP play only.

Sam Howell: Howell makes his first NFL start this week. He’s an interesting GPP play. In the preseason, he ranked ninth in yards per attempt and seventh in aDOT, so Howell has no issues pushing the ball downfield. Add in his three preseason carries for 94 rushing yards, and we have a cheap Konami quarterback to cling to on this slate. Since Week 14, Dallas has struggled to defend the pass, with injuries crippling their secondary. They have been 30th in success rate per dropback, 29th in EPA per drop back, and 25th in explosive pass rate allowed. Howell will make it onto one of my three max teams this week.

Weeks 14-16

Ezekiel Elliott: In the last three games played with Pollard active, Elliott has averaged 17.7 touches and 71 total yards. Elliott’s touchdown streak remains intact, as he’s scored in each of the last nine games (11 total touchdowns). Elliott ranks 32nd in evaded tackles, 40th in breakaway run rate, and 55th in yards created per touch. Since Week 12, Washington has been 18th in rushing success rate, 25th in rushing yards per game, and 28th in explosive run rate allowed. Elliott won’t make it on my single entry or three-max teams from the jump, but he’s a solid MME play or late swap candidate.

Tony Pollard: Since Week 14, Pollard has played at least 53% of the snaps weekly, averaging 17.4 touches and 82.6 total yards. Pollard remains one of the most efficient running backs in the league. He’s ranked seventh in fantasy points per opportunity, third in yards per route run, sixth in yards per touch, and third in breakaway runs. Pollard is a smash play.

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is a true alpha wide receiver. He ranks seventh in target share, sixth in target per route run rate, and 11th in air-yard share among wide receivers. He is also seventh in deep targets and 17th in red zone targets. Lamb has logged 100 yards receiving in five of his last eight games. Lamb will run about 61% of his routes against Bobby McCain (83.3% catch rate, 96.7 passer rating).

Terry McLaurin: It’s possible, but unlikely, Trevon Diggs follows McLaurin in this game. Diggs has shadowed five times this season, but he didn’t shadow him in their first meeting. McLaurin has a 22.2% target share while ranking fourth in deep targets and 22nd in yards per route run. If McLaurin isn’t facing a shadow situation, he’ll run about 78% of his routes against Diggs (68.3% catch rate, 99.4 passer rating) and Nahshon Wright (61.9% catch rate, 64.6 passer rating). McLaurin is risky, with Ron Rivera stating that they want to get a look at some of the younger players this week, but he could be a risk worth taking.

Jahan Dotson: Since Week 13, Dotson has been balling with a 24.2% target share, 57.1% end zone target share, a 34.5% air yard share, and 2.14 yards per route run. Dotson is my favorite stacking partner with Howell. If Diggs isn’t in McLaurin’s back pocket, he’ll run about 73% of his routes against Diggs and Wright. If Diggs does follow McLaurin, the speedy Dotson can feast on the 6’4″ Wright, who runs a 4.5 40 and has a 4th percentile agility score.

KC vs. LV | TEN vs. JAC | BAL vs. CIN | TB vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI | HOU vs. IND | NYJ vs. MIA | CAR vs. NO | CLE vs. PIT | LAC vs. DEN | NYG vs. PHI | ARI vs. SF | LAR vs. SEA | DAL vs. WAS | DET vs. GB

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

• DAL -10, O/U 40.5
• Lions vs. Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Detroit can make the playoffs with a win and a SEA loss. Even if they are eliminated from postseason play before kickoff, they will push to play spoiler. The Lions will play their starters regardless. Green Bay needs a win to get into the playoffs. They are full-go.

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers hasn’t been exciting in fantasy this season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t carve up the Lions on the way to another playoff berth. Rodgers is ninth in PFF passing grade, 28th in yards per attempt, and 17th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Since Week 12, the Lions have been 18th in passing yards per game, 24th in EPA per dropback, and 31st in explosive pass rate allowed. Rodgers is another MME play. If you’re only running 1-3 DFS lineups, he won’t make the cut.

Week 17

Jamaal Williams: Williams remains the early down hammer averaging 16.2 touches and 66.7 total yards. Williams has been a touchdown monster ranking second in total touchdowns as he’s made the most of his 57 red zone touches (second-most). The last time these teams met, Williams rushed 24 times for 81 yards (zero touchdowns). Williams won’t wow you with his wiggle (well, his touchdown dances are impressive) as he’s 51st in juke rate, 37th in evaded tackles, and 54th in yards created per touch. Since Week 12, Green Bay has ranked 31st in rushing success rate, 27th in rushing yards per game, and 31st in explosive run rate allowed.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown has vacuumed up targets all season. He ranks 11th in target share, second in target rate per route run and sixth in raw target volume among wide receivers. St. Brown is also fifth in red zone targets, fifth in YAC, and seventh in yards per route run. St. Brown will run about 60% of his routes against Darnell Savage (66.7% catch rate, 109.0 passer rating) in the slot.

Christian Watson: Battling through a hip issue, Watson still commanded a 19.2% target share and 48.5% air yard share while managing a 60.7% route run rate. Assuming Watson is healthier this week (limited in practice on Wednesday), he should return to his full-time role this week. In the full games he has played since his breakout in Week 10, Watson has a 23.4% target share, 50% end zone target share, 42.6% air yard share, and 2.92 yards per route run. Watson will run about 67% of his routes against Mike Hughes (74% catch rate, 132.3 passer rating) and Jerry Jacobs (55.8% catch rate, 71.0 passer rating).

Allen Lazard: In that five-game sample with a full-time Watson at his side, Lazard had an 18.4% target share, 8.3% end zone target share, a 26.1% air yard share, and 1.59 yards per route run. Lazard ranks tenth in deep and red zone targets among wide receivers. He will run about 58% of his routes against Hughes and Jacobs.

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan has been a ghost for most of the season, with a 12.5% target share and only three TE1 weeks. Tonyan gets mentioned here because the matchup is mouthwatering. Detroit ranks 26th in fantasy points per game and 29th in catch rate allowed to tight ends. Detroit has surrendered the most touchdowns (11) to tight ends this season.

KC vs. LV | TEN vs. JAC | BAL vs. CIN | TB vs. ATL | NE vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI | HOU vs. IND | NYJ vs. MIA | CAR vs. NO | CLE vs. PIT | LAC vs. DEN | NYG vs. PHI | ARI vs. SF | LAR vs. SEA | DAL vs. WAS | DET vs. GB